ASPN · Aspen Aerogels
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.18
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.18, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 4.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.18, 12% above the 11 November 2026 close of $6.41, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $75 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 85.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +16.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 24.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −8.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 19.9
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 94.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 4.3
All filed numbers
What Aspen Aerogels reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 85.2 | +16.7 | 24.1 | −8.4 |
| first filed | 49.8 | −36.1 | 6.5 | −57.7 |
| first filed | 37.9 | −51.9 | 11.3 | −55.0 |
| first filed | 41.3 | −66.4 | −55.5 | −170.3 |
| first filed | 73.0 | −37.8 | 28.5 | −4.6 |
| first filed | 78.0 | −33.7 | 32.4 | −6.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −9.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −130 | −10.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 30.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 10.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 19.9 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 146 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 51.1 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 94.9 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +2945.0% on a year | 25.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 62.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | 29.3 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 184 |
| Market value ($M) | 464 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 369 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, +0.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $58.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $58.1M |
The thesis
Aspen Aerogels is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, even after its third-quarter beat and a rebound from $4.91 on 6 November 2026 to $6.41 on 11 November 2026. Fourth-quarter revenue is guided below the third quarter and a $150 million registration allows new shares. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles whether revenue holds the recovery.
On 5 November 2026 the company reported third-quarter revenue of $85.2 million against its own guide of $65 million–$80 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) were $19.8 million against a guide of $7 million–$15 million (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 5 November 2026). The net loss was $10.4 million, wider than the $6 million–$9 million guide.
The shares closed at $6.11 on 9 November 2026, $5.72 on 10 November 2026 and $6.41 on 11 November 2026. No company news dated 9 November to 11 November 2026 explains the move. The 11 November 2026 close is above the $6.07 close of 13 August 2026, the three-month reference, and 20.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $8.10 set on 6 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Aspen Aerogels, Inc.
The bull case on Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN), in brief: third quarter beat both guided ranges. The bear case: fourth-quarter revenue guide falls.
Bull case
- Third quarter beat both guided ranges. Revenue of $85.2 million was above the $80 million top of the guide, and adjusted EBITDA of $19.8 million was above the $15 million top (company release, 5 November 2026). Revenue also beat a $72.1 million analyst estimate, per Google Finance.
- Energy Industrial is growing fast. Segment revenue was $39.9 million in the third quarter, against $24.3 million a year earlier (company release, 5 November 2026). Management cited a pipeline of significant project work heading into 2027.
- Thermal Barrier recovered from the second quarter. Third-quarter segment revenue was $45.3 million, up from $29.5 million in the second quarter (company releases, 6 August 2026 and 5 November 2026). On the 5 November 2026 earnings call, management attributed the rise to higher General Motors (GM) volumes.
- Europe is building. European Thermal Barrier revenue reached a record $8.0 million in the third quarter. The company expects seven automakers across eight programs to drive growth into 2027 (company release, 5 November 2026).
- Fourth-quarter guide stays profitable. Aspen guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $5 million–$13 million on revenue of $60 million–$75 million (company release, 5 November 2026).
- Cash exceeds the debt. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $146.5 million at 30 September 2026, against $22.5 million of current long-term debt, $51.1 million of long-term debt and an $11.2 million revolving credit line (company release, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- Fourth-quarter revenue guide falls. The $60 million–$75 million range sits below third-quarter revenue of $85.2 million (company release, 5 November 2026). The top of the range is below the third-quarter result.
- Net loss missed its guide. The $10.4 million third-quarter net loss compares with a guided $6 million–$9 million. It includes $15.1 million of East Providence incident costs and a $4.6 million loss on disposal of assets, mostly Statesboro, Georgia write-downs.
- Incident costs continue. Aspen expects another $5 million–$10 million of East Providence costs in the fourth quarter, excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Full restoration is targeted for the first half of 2027 (company release, 5 November 2026).
- New securities registration. Aspen filed a prospectus for a $150 million mixed-securities offering on 5 November 2026 (company news). Any issuance would dilute existing holders, and the rise to $6.41 raises the price at which new shares could be sold.
- Large holder sold into weakness. Wood River Capital, LLC reported an open-market sale of 12,280,426 shares at $4.73 on 23 September 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 24 September 2026).
- Thermal Barrier is still below last year. Third-quarter segment revenue of $45.3 million compares with $48.7 million a year earlier (company release, 5 November 2026). Energy Industrial, not electric-vehicle barriers, drove the year-over-year gain.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.41 on 11 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $5.3 and the 200-day average of $4.74, both from adjusted daily closes. The three-month change is 5.6%.
The 52-week intraday high is $8.10 on 6 August 2026, the day of the second-quarter report. The 52-week closing low is $2.57 on 25 February 2026. The close of $4.91 on 6 November 2026 followed the third-quarter report; the three sessions after it closed at $6.11, $5.72 and $6.41.
At $6.41 the market has priced in the third-quarter beat and has recovered the post-report drop. It has not repriced for the lower fourth-quarter guide or for possible issuance under the $150 million registration. Post-report analyst target changes were not found, so no consensus target is cited.
SEC Form 4 filings show a 6,073-share award to director Stacy Durbin Nieuwoudt on 4 November 2026 and tax withholding of 1,143 shares by the company's general counsel on 30 September 2026. Neither is an open-market trade.
Catalysts ahead
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether revenue lands inside the $60 million–$75 million guide and whether adjusted EBITDA stays positive after East Providence disruption.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): Company target for full East Providence restoration (first half of 2027). A slip past mid-2027 would extend incident costs and constrain output.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.18, 12% above the 11 November 2026 close of $6.41, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $75 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Aspen's Thermal Barrier segment tracks North American and European electric-vehicle production schedules, so automaker volume news moves the shares. On the 5 November 2026 earnings call, management assumed GM production at an annualized 70,000 to 90,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. The Energy Industrial segment follows liquefied natural gas and subsea project spending, a separate driver from vehicle volumes. GM volume commentary is the closest external indicator for the Thermal Barrier line.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $85.2 million versus a guide of $65 million–$80 million; adjusted EBITDA was $19.8 million versus a guide of $7 million–$15 million. Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter net loss was $10.4 million ($0.13 per share), including $15.1 million of East Providence incident costs and a $4.6 million loss on disposal of assets. Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter Thermal Barrier revenue was $45.3 million (prior year $48.7 million); Energy Industrial revenue was $39.9 million (prior year $24.3 million). Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guide: revenue $60 million–$75 million, adjusted EBITDA $5 million–$13 million, net loss $8 million–$11 million, with $5 million–$10 million of East Providence costs expected. Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $146.5 million at 30 September 2026; European Thermal Barrier revenue was a record $8.0 million in the third quarter. Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Aspen filed a prospectus for a $150 million mixed-securities offering. Company news, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Wood River Capital, LLC reported an open-market sale of 12,280,426 shares at $4.73 on 23 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- ASPEN AEROGELS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
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