BB · BlackBerry
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.72
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.72, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 1.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.72, 14% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 August 2026, filed 24 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 163
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +26.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 77.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 20.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 92.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 180
- Price to earnings (×)
- 65.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.2
All filed numbers
What BlackBerry reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 163 | +26.0 | 77.8 | 20.6 |
| first filed | 153 | +25.6 | 78.3 | 10.0 |
| first filed | 156 | +10.1 | 77.8 | 14.7 |
| first filed | 142 | −1.3 | 77.5 | 8.4 |
| first filed | 130 | +2.7 | 74.5 | 8.9 |
| first filed | 122 | −1.4 | 74.2 | 1.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 35.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 80.4 | 33.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 August 2025 | +8.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 98.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 6.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 92.1 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 378 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 197 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 180 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −5.0% on a year | 128 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −5.0% on a year | 128 |
| Receivables ($M) | 141 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 792 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,225 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,044 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 60.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 65.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.4 days of average trading to cover, −12.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $41K | $3.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $41K | $9.5M |
The thesis
BlackBerry's QNX unit, which sells the operating system inside cars and other safety-critical devices, has a royalty backlog above $1.2 billion, and the shares closed at $9.14 on 10 November 2026, close to most analyst targets. The planned 17 December 2026 third-quarter report settles whether QNX revenue keeps pace with its raised $315–325 million full-year outlook.
BlackBerry said on 20 October 2026 that QNX's royalty backlog passed $1.2 billion, up more than $250 million from about $950 million at the end of fiscal 2026. An 8-K filing puts the first Alloy Kore design win, with Coretura, at more than $100 million of future royalties, the largest in QNX history. Backlog is the company's estimate of future royalties; revenue arrives only as vehicle programs reach production.
On 6 November 2026 BlackBerry announced a QNX collaboration with Valeo on a front-view smart camera platform for driver assistance, with production in China targeted before the end of 2026. Benzinga ran a rising-stock story the same day. The adjusted close of $9.14 on 10 November 2026 is below the $9.40 close on 28 October 2026, so the story is well known: the backlog and Valeo news are out, and the shares have moved between $8.49 (29 September 2026 close) and $9.40 since.
Bullish and bearish views on BlackBerry Limited
The bull case on BlackBerry Limited (BB), in brief: backlog is growing faster than revenue. The bear case: the price sits near most targets.
Bull case
- Backlog is growing faster than revenue. QNX royalty backlog rose from about $950 million at the end of fiscal 2026 to more than $1.2 billion by 20 October 2026 (BlackBerry release). The company named robotics, industrial automation and medical devices as additional contributors.
- The largest design win in QNX history. Coretura, the Daimler Truck and Volvo Group software-defined vehicle venture, selected QNX and Vector's Alloy Kore, adding more than $100 million of estimated royalties (BlackBerry 8-K, 20 October 2026).
- Guidance was raised again in September. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance moved to $616–636 million from $594–621 million, and QNX guidance to $315–325 million, after record QNX revenue of $80.3 million, up 27% year over year (BlackBerry Q2 FY27 results, 24 September 2026).
- A new advanced driver assistance partner. The Valeo smart-camera collaboration, announced 6 November 2026, targets production in China before the end of 2026 (BlackBerry QNX release).
- One analyst target is far above the price. Amerx initiated with a Buy rating and a $13.50 target on 8 October 2026, applying 50 times a fiscal 2029 earnings estimate of $0.27 per share (Benzinga).
Bear case
- The price sits near most targets. The adjusted close of $9.14 on 10 November 2026 compares with RBC's $9 target (Sector Perform) and Canaccord Genuity's $9.50 target (Hold), both set 25 September 2026.
- Backlog is an estimate, not revenue. BlackBerry's filing says backlog may not indicate actual revenue, which depends on production volumes and possible contract changes (BlackBerry release, 20 October 2026).
- Secure Communications is weak. Full-year guidance is $260–270 million, and quarterly revenue of $60.9 million was up 2% year over year (Q2 FY27 call coverage, 24 September 2026).
- Third-quarter guidance was mixed. Revenue guidance of $143–154 million compared with a $149.602 million analyst estimate, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.04–0.05 with $0.05 (Benzinga, 24 September 2026).
- Good news has produced muted or short-lived reactions. The shares fell about 2% on 24 September 2026 despite the beat and raise (24/7 Wall St), and Benzinga attributed a 3.47% drop to $8.49 on 29 September 2026 to profit-taking. The close on 10 November 2026 was 2.8% under the 28 October 2026 close, after the Valeo news.
Price setup
The adjusted close on 10 November 2026 was $9.14, according to split- and dividend-adjusted daily bars. That is 28.6% below the $12.81 52-week high, up 1.7% over three months, with a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 47.5, a neutral reading.
The closes of $8.49 on 29 September 2026 and $9.40 on 28 October 2026 mark the recent range.
Crowding evidence is limited. Benzinga covered the shares on most days around the October backlog release and the November Valeo news, and Benzinga reported on 18 September 2026 that Jim Cramer had backed the stock. The shares are not far above a rising moving average, and the next earnings report is about five weeks away. This note holds no insider-transaction or share-issuance data for the period.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026: BlackBerry third fiscal quarter of FY27 ends. Closes the period whose revenue the $143–154M guide covers.
- ~3 December 2026 (est.): BlackBerry confirms the third-quarter results date. BlackBerry's planning date is 17 December 2026; the company says it confirms the date by press release about two weeks ahead.
- ~17 December 2026 (planned, unconfirmed): BlackBerry third-quarter FY27 results. Tests the $143–154M revenue guide and whether QNX keeps pace with the $315–325M full-year outlook.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.72, 14% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
BlackBerry's QNX revenue follows automotive production volumes and software-defined vehicle programs, so global vehicle demand and automaker program delays are the main outside drivers. Reuters-style macro shocks and small-cap software sentiment can also move the shares independently of company news, as in the May to July 2026 retail-driven episode. Secure Communications depends on government contract timing and moves separately from QNX.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- QNX royalty backlog exceeded $1.2 billion, up more than $250 million from about $950 million at the end of fiscal 2026. BlackBerry release, 20 October 2026 · as of
- Alloy Kore's first design win, with Coretura, adds more than $100 million to QNX royalty backlog, the largest design win in QNX history. BlackBerry 8-K, 20 October 2026 · as of
- Q2 FY27 revenue was $163.3M, up 26% year over year; QNX revenue was a record $80.3M, up 27%; adjusted EBITDA was $47.0M. BlackBerry Q2 FY27 results release · as of
- FY27 revenue guidance raised to $616–636M from $594–621M; QNX guidance $315–325M; Secure Communications $260–270M. Benzinga; Q2 FY27 call coverage · as of
- Q3 FY27 guidance: sales $143–154M versus a $149.602M estimate; adjusted EPS $0.04–0.05 versus $0.05. Benzinga · as of
- QNX and Valeo announced a collaboration on a front-view smart camera platform for advanced driver assistance, targeting production in China before the end of 2026. BlackBerry QNX release via Benzinga, 6 November 2026 · as of
- RBC kept Sector Perform with a $9 target; Canaccord Genuity kept Hold with a $9.50 target; Amerx initiated Buy with a $13.50 target on 8 October 2026. Benzinga · as of
- Adjusted daily close was $9.14, 28.6% below the $12.81 52-week high, with a 14-day RSI of 47.5. Split- and dividend-adjusted daily bars · as of
Sources
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