UBER · Uber Technologies

The thesis

Uber Technologies shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter gross bookings grew 20% and profit grew faster, and the shares still trade 25.7% below their 52-week high. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether bookings growth holds inside the 18–22% guidance.

The 4 November 2026 earnings release (8-K) beat the company's own profit guidance. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $3.0 billion, up 31%, above the $2.86–2.96 billion range. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.88, up 35%. Revenue rose 10% to $14.8 billion, and the company said business-model changes cut 8 percentage points from that growth.

The weak spot is mobility. Mobility bookings growth slowed to 18% from 22% in the second quarter, and mobility revenue fell 2% to $7.5 billion (8-K). Uber said the Middle East conflict cut 75 basis points from third-quarter mobility growth and assumes a 100-basis-point drag in the fourth quarter (Investing.com, 4 November 2026).

The shares closed at $70.68 on 11 November 2026, 25.7% below the $95.18 intraday high of 12 November 2025, while fourth-quarter guidance calls for 18–22% bookings growth. That gap suggests the price reflects worry about mobility and robotaxi competition more than the reported growth. Citigroup reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and a $105 target on 9 November 2026, and Uber reached a 66.56% stake in Delivery Hero on 10 November 2026 (company news).

Bullish and bearish views on Uber Technologies, Inc.

The bull case on Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER), in brief: bookings landed inside guidance. The bear case: mobility growth is slowing.

Bull case

• Bookings landed inside guidance. Third-quarter gross bookings rose 20% to $59.8 billion, both reported and in constant currency, against 18–22% guidance. Delivery grew 22% to $28.5 billion and freight 35% to $1.8 billion (8-K, 4 November 2026).
• Profit grows faster than bookings. Non-GAAP operating income rose 38% to $2.3 billion, or 3.9% of gross bookings against 3.4% a year earlier (8-K, 4 November 2026).
• Cash generation funds buybacks. Free cash flow was $2.5 billion, up 14%. Uber repurchased $750 million of stock in the quarter and held $10.1 billion of unrestricted cash and short-term investments (8-K, 4 November 2026).
• Fourth-quarter guidance holds the pace. Uber guided gross bookings of $63.25–65.25 billion, up 18–22% in constant currency, around the $64.29 billion consensus. It guided non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.95–0.99, up 34–39% (8-K; Investing.com, 4 November 2026).
• Delivery partnerships keep widening. McDonald's and Uber announced a multi-year expansion of delivery and rewards features across 14 markets on 9 November 2026. Tractor Supply launched nationwide on-demand delivery with Uber on 12 November 2026 (company news).
• Delivery Hero control is in reach. Uber reached a 66.56% stake in Delivery Hero after its offer's regular acceptance period, and a further window at €41.50 per share runs from 11 November to 24 November 2026 (company news, 10 November 2026). Completion is expected in the second half of 2027, subject to merger-control approvals (Börsen-Zeitung).
• A new Buy rating arrived. Citigroup reinstated coverage on 9 November 2026 with a Buy rating and a $105 target, citing autonomous driving, 55 million Uber One subscribers and the Amazon partnership on Uber Eats (company news; Goldesel). UBS raised its target to $107 on 6 November 2026 (Benzinga).
• The CEO bought near today's price. Dara Khosrowshahi bought 141,000 shares at a weighted average of $70.96 on 10 September 2026, his first open-market purchase since 2022 (Yahoo Finance, 24 September 2026). SEC Form 4 filings dated 18 September 2026 and 20 October 2026 show executives' option exercises with shares withheld for tax, with no open-market sales.

Bear case

• Mobility growth is slowing. Mobility bookings growth fell to 18% in the third quarter from 22% in the second, and mobility revenue fell 2% (8-K, 4 November 2026). Benzinga's 5 November 2026 report attributed the mobility miss to high fuel prices.
• Fuel and Middle East drag continue. Uber assumes the Middle East conflict takes 100 basis points off fourth-quarter mobility growth, more than the 75 basis points in the third quarter (Investing.com, 4 November 2026).
• Most brokers cut their targets. On 5 November 2026 Wells Fargo lowered its target to $87, Bernstein to $90, KeyBanc and Rosenblatt to $95, and Barclays and Needham to $100 (Benzinga).
• Revenue trails bookings. Revenue grew 10% against 20% bookings growth in the third quarter, down from 12% revenue growth in the second (8-K, 4 November 2026).
• Brazil blocked a driver-fee model. A Brazilian labor court issued a preliminary injunction on 12 November 2026 requiring Uber to suspend a program in which drivers paid a fee for platform access (company news). It adds a driver-pay regulatory front alongside the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) study orders sent on 28 October 2026 (AP).
• Robotaxi rivals are scaling. Tesla's Texas robotaxi fleet reached 1,302 vehicles, more than Waymo's there (Benzinga, 11 November 2026). DoorDash agreed on 29 October 2026 to buy Instacart for about $17 billion, pending antitrust review (Benzinga).

Price setup

The shares closed at $70.68 on 11 November 2026, up from $68.59 on 6 November 2026 and $65.25 on 30 October 2026. The 30 October 2026 close is the 52-week closing low and came just before the third-quarter report. The shares are down 6.9% over three months, against a $75.88 close on 13 August 2026.

As of 11 November 2026 the shares sit above their 50-day moving average of $69.79 and below their 200-day moving average of $72.77. A sustained close above the 200-day average would show the post-report recovery extending. The largest single-day gain since the report came on 9 November 2026, a close of $71.17, the session of Citigroup's reinstatement and the McDonald's announcement.

The 52-week high of $95.18 dates from 12 November 2025, so the shares carry a 25.7% gap to it while guidance points to bookings growth near 20%. The next earnings report is about three months away, so the shares are likely to move on autonomous-vehicle news, the Delivery Hero offer and oil prices in the meantime.

Catalysts ahead

• 16 November 2026: Last day for global autonomous head Sarfraz Maredia (Bloomberg, 13 October 2026). Marks the handover of the autonomous business; any slip in partner launches afterward bears on the roughly 700-vehicle year-end driverless target.
• 24 November 2026: Additional acceptance period for Uber's €41.50-per-share Delivery Hero offer ends. Sets how far above 66.56% Uber's Delivery Hero stake goes before regulatory review decides the 2027 close.
• ~12 December 2026 (est.): Approximate deadline for FTC 6(b) study responses on personalized pricing and pay. Indicates how far federal scrutiny of algorithmic pricing and driver pay extends to ride-hailing and delivery platforms.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Rivian's targeted autonomy milestone triggering a $250M Uber investment tranche. Tests whether Uber's autonomous partner pipeline is on schedule toward the 2028 R2 robotaxi launch.
• ~4 February 2027 (est.): Uber fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether gross bookings stay inside the 18–22% constant-currency guidance and whether mobility growth steadies after the fuel and Middle East drag.

What would change the view

A daily close below $64.00, under the $65.25 close on 30 October 2026 that preceded the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report recovery. Fourth-quarter gross bookings growth below the 18% constant-currency low end of guidance would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Mobility growth keeps slowing as fuel costs and Middle East disruption limit driver supply. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter mobility bookings growth below the third quarter's 18%.
• Group bookings growth falls below guidance. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter gross bookings growth below the 18% constant-currency low end of guidance at the early-2027 report.
• A combined DoorDash and Instacart takes grocery and delivery share from Uber Eats. Confirmed by: the DoorDash–Instacart deal clearing antitrust review, followed by delivery bookings growth slowing from the third quarter's 22%.
• Robotaxi operators such as Waymo, Tesla and Zoox scale their own apps before Uber's autonomous partnerships reach volume. Confirmed by: a major operator launching at scale in one of Uber's largest US cities through its own app, with no Uber distribution deal.
• Turnover in the autonomous unit slows partnership launches. Confirmed by: delayed or cancelled autonomous city launches announced after Maredia's 16 November 2026 exit, or Uber falling short of about 700 driverless vehicles by year-end.
• Federal and city rules on pricing, pay and worker deactivation raise costs. Confirmed by: the FTC moving from its 6(b) study to an enforcement policy on personalized pricing, or Uber losing its lawsuit against New York City's deactivation law.
• Brazilian courts restrict Uber's driver-pay and access models. Confirmed by: the 12 November 2026 preliminary injunction on the driver subscription program upheld on appeal, or Uber citing Brazil as a drag on Latin American mobility growth at the fourth-quarter report.

What it trades with

The shares trade with Lyft and DoorDash on ride-hailing and delivery news. They also respond to oil prices, because fuel costs limit driver supply in mobility. Robotaxi headlines from Tesla and Waymo move the shares as a read on whether autonomous operators need Uber's network. GAAP earnings swing with revaluations of equity stakes such as Aurora Innovation: third-quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.25 after a $476 million pre-tax loss on these revaluations (8-K, 4 November 2026).