ASMB · Assembly Biosciences
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $26.91
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $26.91, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 29.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $26.91, just over the 200-day average of closes on 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −72.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −792.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −40.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 314
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −9.4
All filed numbers
What Assembly Biosciences reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3.0 | −72.6 | −792.1 |
| first filed | 13.4 | +38.9 | −47.4 |
| first filed | 8.2 | −12.8 | −138.4 |
| first filed | 10.8 | +57.6 | −100.9 |
| first filed | 9.6 | +12.8 | −115.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) quarter to 31 December 2025, filed 19 March 2026 | 22.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −11.1 | −20.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +71.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −40.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −40.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 314 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 314 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −67.6% on a year | 13.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 299 |
| Market value ($M) | 433 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 118 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −9.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 11.1 days of average trading to cover, +3.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $238K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $252K |
The thesis
Assembly Biosciences is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The shares closed at $20.18 on 12 November 2026, down 38.8% in three months and below both the 50-day average of $23.55 and the 200-day average of $26.88. Gilead starting the GS-1179 Phase 2 herpes study by 31 December 2026 is the event that settles whether the case improves.
The third-quarter report, filed on 12 November 2026, removed one funding question and left the earnings weak. Assembly said it received the $75 million Gilead collaboration extension fee in November 2026, and it projects cash will fund operations into 2029. Collaboration revenue was $3.0 million, against $10.8 million in the third quarter of 2025, and the net loss was $20.3 million, or $0.93 per share, against $9.2 million, or $0.72 per share, a year earlier.
The shares closed at $22.37 on 11 November 2026 and at $20.18 on 12 November 2026, the session of the report. The 52-week closing low is $19.51, set on 2 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Assembly Biosciences, Inc.
The bull case on Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (ASMB), in brief: Gilead fee is in hand. The bear case: revenue fell sharply.
Bull case
- Gilead fee is in hand. Assembly's third-quarter release reports the $75 million first extension fee as received in November 2026, after the third anniversary of the collaboration. The receipt also led to cancellation of all outstanding Class B warrants issued in August 2025.
- Cash funds development into 2029. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $314.3 million at 30 September 2026, against $320.4 million at 30 June 2026. Assembly's projection into 2029 includes the $75 million fee.
- Partnered herpes economics are defined. Assembly exercised its option to take 40% of United States development costs and profits in GS-1179, with eligibility for up to $280 million in milestones plus royalties outside the United States (company release, 8 September 2026). Gilead is expected to start the Phase 2 study in recurrent genital herpes by the end of 2026.
- ABI-6250 is widening. Assembly dosed the first participants in its Phase 2 hepatitis delta study on 29 October 2026, with about 80 participants planned and initial data expected in the fourth quarter of 2027. The third-quarter release adds an FDA Study May Proceed letter for a Phase 2 in primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis, which Assembly expects to start in the first quarter of 2027.
Bear case
- Revenue fell sharply. Third-quarter 2026 collaboration revenue was $3.0 million against $10.8 million a year earlier, which Assembly attributed to an $11.3 million reduction in the transaction price of the herpes license. Benzinga reported the quarter's revenue and loss per share of $0.93 as misses against analyst estimates of $7.259 million and $0.46.
- Spending is rising. Research and development expense was $20.2 million against $16.6 million a year earlier, driven by ABI-6250 study start-up costs. General and administrative expense was $6.1 million against $5.1 million. The nine-month net loss was $33.2 million against $28.2 million.
- Price sits below both averages. The $20.18 close on 12 November 2026 is under the 50-day average of $23.55 and the 200-day average of $26.88. The shares are 49.2% below the 52-week high of $39.70 (intraday, 20 November 2025).
- Executives sold after awards. SEC Form 4 filings dated 3 November 2026 show open-market sales on 2 November 2026 at an average of $19.62 by the CEO (6,202 shares), the Chief Medical Officer (2,593), the Chief Manufacturing Officer (2,593) and the principal financial officer (727). Each reported a share award dated 30 October 2026.
- Share count has more than doubled. Assembly reported a $115 million gross financing on 13 August 2026. Weighted average shares were 18.9 million in the second quarter of 2026 against 7.7 million a year earlier.
- GS-1179 is not yet in Phase 2. Assembly's 12 November 2026 release still describes the Gilead start as expected by the end of 2026. Gilead holds sole responsibility for development, so the timing is outside Assembly's control.
Price setup
The shares closed at $20.00 on 5 November 2026 and rose to $22.37 on 11 November 2026. They fell to $20.18 on 12 November 2026, the day the third-quarter report was filed. The 52-week closing low of $19.51 on 2 November 2026 is the nearest prior low.
The 50-day average of $23.55 and the 200-day average of $26.88, both as of 12 November 2026, sit above the last close. The three-month change is −38.8%, from a close of $32.95 on 14 August 2026.
The market has already priced in a deep reset: the shares are 49.2% below the 52-week high, and they fell on the day Assembly confirmed the $75 million fee and runway into 2029.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: Assembly at the UBS Global Biopharma Conference. First management commentary after the third-quarter report on GS-1179 timing, ABI-6250 and spending.
- 17 November 2026: Assembly at the Jefferies Healthcare Conference in London. Further management commentary on the Gilead program and the funding runway into 2029.
- 31 December 2026: Deadline for Gilead to start the GS-1179 Phase 2 study in recurrent genital herpes. A documented start would confirm the timetable Assembly gave on 12 November 2026; a slip would contradict it and settle whether the case improves.
What would change the view
A daily close above $26.91, just over the 200-day average of closes on 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Assembly's value depends on Gilead's decisions for GS-1179, so the shares respond to Gilead's development disclosures more than to Assembly's own news. ABI-6250 is Assembly's own program, and its costs run from the same cash balance.
Small-cap biotech sentiment sets the backdrop. Assembly presents at the UBS Global Biopharma Conference on 16 November 2026 and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference in London on 17 November 2026, where management comments on GS-1179 timing and ABI-6250 can move the shares.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $314.3 million at 30 September 2026, against $320.4 million at 30 June 2026; the projected runway extends into 2029 including the $75 million Gilead fee. Assembly Biosciences third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Assembly received the $75 million first collaboration extension fee from Gilead in November 2026; the receipt led to cancellation of all outstanding Class B warrants issued in August 2025. Assembly Biosciences third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 collaboration revenue was $3.0 million against $10.8 million a year earlier; net loss was $20.3 million, or $0.93 per share, against $9.2 million, or $0.72 per share. Assembly Biosciences third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Research and development expense was $20.2 million against $16.6 million a year earlier; general and administrative expense was $6.1 million against $5.1 million. Assembly Biosciences third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Gilead is expected to start the GS-1179 Phase 2 study in recurrent genital herpes by the end of 2026; Assembly expects to start an ABI-6250 Phase 2 in cholestatic liver disease in the first quarter of 2027. Assembly Biosciences third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Assembly confirmed its option to share 40% of United States development costs and profits in the Gilead-partnered herpes program, with eligibility for up to $280 million in milestones plus royalties outside the United States. Assembly Biosciences press release · as of
- Assembly dosed the first two participants in ABI-6250-201, a Phase 2 study in chronic hepatitis delta expected to enroll about 80 participants, with initial data expected in the fourth quarter of 2027. Assembly Biosciences press release · as of
- The CEO sold 6,202 shares, and the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Manufacturing Officer each sold 2,593 shares, at an average of $19.62 on 2 November 2026, after share awards dated 30 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings filed 3 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Assembly Biosciences Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Recent Updates · manilatimes.net ·
- Assembly Biosciences Reports Q3 2026: $3.0 Million Revenue Misses Estimates, Net Loss Widens to $0.93 per Share · gurufocus.com
- Assembly Biosciences to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences · investor.assemblybio.com