ASAN · Asana
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.02
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.02, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 10.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.02, the 23 October 2026 close that capped the October rally, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $219 million top of the guide with the full-year range raised above $863.5 million would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 3 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 216
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +9.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 86.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −19.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 124
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 148
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.5
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 5.5
All filed numbers
What Asana reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 216 | +9.9 | 86.0 | −19.0 |
| first filed | 205 | +9.5 | 87.6 | −7.4 |
| first filed | 206 | +9.2 | 87.8 | −16.5 |
| first filed | 201 | +9.3 | 88.9 | −34.8 |
| first filed | 197 | +9.9 | 89.7 | −25.1 |
| first filed | 187 | +8.6 | 89.7 | −23.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −39.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −154 | −39.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | −2.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 130 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 6.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 124 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 220 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 October 2025, filed 2 December 2025; secured debt | 35.6 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 October 2025, filed 2 December 2025 | 148 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.8% on a year | 351 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +2.9% on a year | 522 |
| Receivables ($M) | 78.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 104 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,241 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,093 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 21.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, −3.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $26.5M |
The thesis
Asana's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Management guides growth down to 8–9%, and existing customers are spending less than a year ago. The fiscal third-quarter report on 1 December 2026, after the US market close, settles it: the AI products have to lift revenue above the $217–219 million guide and push net revenue retention back toward 100%.
The shares have already given back the October rally. They closed at $11.64 on 4 November 2026 and fell for four straight sessions to $9.59 on 10 November 2026, then closed at $9.81 on 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. MarketBeat reported a drop of about 5% on 9 November 2026 and found no company news behind it.
The price now reflects the analyst consensus, not a recovery. The $9.81 close on 11 November 2026 sits just under MarketBeat's $9.95 average target (9 November 2026), and the 3-month change is −0.6%. That consensus is a Hold, which prices guided 8–9% growth with no AI acceleration. A beat-and-raise on 1 December 2026 is the event that would move the shares above it.
The only new company filing is a refinancing. Asana's 8-K of 10 November 2026 reports a new $150 million revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo as agent, effective 9 November 2026 and undrawn at signing. The company repaid and ended its 2022 Silicon Valley Bank facility on 6 November 2026 with cash on hand. The revenue case is unchanged since the 3 September 2026 report.
Bullish and bearish views on Asana, Inc.
The bull case on Asana, Inc. (ASAN), in brief: AI products are taking new revenue. The bear case: growth is guided lower.
Bull case
- AI products are taking new revenue. AI Studio and AI Teammates made up 25% of net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the fiscal second quarter, up from 17% in the first quarter, per the 3 September 2026 earnings call.
- Revenue beat and guidance rose. Second-quarter revenue of $216.4 million, up 10%, beat the top of guidance on 3 September 2026. The company raised its full-year revenue range to $858.5–863.5 million.
- Operating margin is widening. The non-GAAP operating margin (excluding stock compensation and other items) reached 10% in the second quarter, up 300 basis points year over year, per the 3 September 2026 release.
- Agentic bundle gets its first full quarter. The Agentic Work Management bundle puts AI Teammates, AI Studio and Asana Dash on all paid plans. It launched in the fiscal third quarter that ended 31 October 2026, so the 1 December 2026 report is the first to cover a full quarter of it.
- Credit line renewed on new terms. The 10 November 2026 8-K shows a $150 million revolver maturing 9 November 2031, priced at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 2.00% and undrawn at signing. The old facility was repaid from cash on 6 November 2026.
- Price sits below the bullish targets. BofA Securities raised its target to $12.75 with a Buy rating on 23 October 2026. Citi's target is $11 with a Buy rating (7 October 2026).
Bear case
- Growth is guided lower. Fiscal third-quarter guidance of $217–219 million implies 8–9% growth, down from 10% in the second quarter, per the 3 September 2026 release. The StackAI acquisition added 50 basis points to second-quarter growth.
- Existing customers are spending less. Net revenue retention was 97% overall and 98% for customers spending at least $100,000 a year in the second quarter, per the 3 September 2026 call.
- AI is squeezing gross margin. Gross margin fell to 87% in the second quarter, down 120 basis points from the first quarter. The company blamed higher AI infrastructure costs and product mix.
- Analysts lean neutral to negative. MarketBeat counted 4 Buy, 7 Hold and 3 Sell ratings on 9 November 2026, with a $9.95 average target. Morgan Stanley kept a Sell rating with a $7 target on 18 September 2026, per stockanalysis.com.
- Executives sold into the rally. SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Dan Rogers sold 18,021 shares at $10.04 on 9 October 2026 and 19,676 at $11.52 on 22 October 2026, both under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. CFO Aziz Megji sold 38,668 shares at an average $9.50 from 21 September to 23 September 2026.
Price setup
The October rally began from an $8.62 close on 2 October 2026 and peaked at the 23 October 2026 close, per adjusted daily closes. It has since unwound to $9.81 on 11 November 2026. That close is below the 50-day moving average of $9.94 and above the 200-day moving average of $8.09, both as of 11 November 2026.
The shares are nearly flat over three months: −0.6% against the $9.87 reference close of 13 August 2026. They sit 35.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $15.28 set on 9 December 2025. The 52-week closing low is $5.46, set on 10 April 2026.
The case turns on two levels. The 50-day moving average at $9.94 is the nearest overhead line. The 2 October 2026 close of $8.62 is where the October rally started. A close back under it would erase that move entirely and leave the shares trading on the 1 December 2026 report alone.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: Fiscal Q3 2027 earnings report, after the US market close. Shows whether revenue clears the $217–219 million guide, whether net revenue retention rises above 97%, and whether AI's share of net new ARR keeps climbing in the first full quarter of the Agentic Work Management bundle.
- 1 December 2026: Updated fiscal 2027 full-year revenue guidance. A raise above the $858.5–863.5 million range would show AI products lifting growth; a hold or a cut would leave the 8–9% growth path intact.
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.02, the 23 October 2026 close that capped the October rally, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $219 million top of the guide with the full-year range raised above $863.5 million would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
Asana's large moves have mostly come without company news. Investing.com and StreetInsider found no company catalyst behind the 20 October 2026 jump, and MarketBeat found none behind the drop of about 5% on 9 November 2026. The shares trade partly with mid-cap application software peers such as Appian, Five9 and Sprout Social, so a rally or sell-off across software moves Asana regardless of its own results. Revenue depends on enterprise seat counts, which tie the company to white-collar hiring and IT budgets more than to AI infrastructure spending.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Asana will report fiscal Q3 2027 results on Tuesday, 1 December 2026, after the US market close, with a webcast at 1:30 p.m. Pacific. Asana press release, investors.asana.com · as of
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $216.4 million, up 10% year over year and above the high end of guidance. Asana Q2 FY27 earnings release · as of
- AI products (AI Studio, AI Teammates) were 25% of net new ARR in fiscal Q2, up from 17% the prior quarter. Asana Q2 FY27 earnings call · as of
- Net revenue retention was 97% overall and 98% for customers spending $100,000 or more a year. Asana Q2 FY27 earnings call · as of
- Fiscal Q3 revenue guided to $217–219 million (8–9% growth); full-year guide raised to $858.5–863.5 million. Asana Q2 FY27 earnings release · as of
- Asana entered a $150 million senior secured revolving credit facility maturing 9 November 2031, undrawn at signing, and repaid its 2022 facility with cash on hand on 6 November 2026. Asana Form 8-K filed 10 November 2026 (SEC EDGAR) · as of
- MarketBeat's analyst consensus is Hold (4 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell) with an average price target of $9.95. MarketBeat · as of
- CEO Dan Rogers sold 19,676 shares at $11.52 on 22 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 23 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Asana, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- MarketBeat ·
- Asana to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results on Tuesday, December 1, 2026 · investors.asana.com
- Asana Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results · finviz.com
- MarketBeat ·
- Asana (ASAN) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets · stockanalysis.com
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