INTU · Intuit
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $270
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $270.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 2.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $270, which would put the shares back into the late-September 2026 range and erase the October recovery. Business-platform revenue growth below 13% or a cut to fiscal 2027 revenue guidance at the 19 November 2026 report would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 9 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 4,354
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 10.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 8,663
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,964
- Price to earnings (×)
- 20.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.4
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 16.0
All filed numbers
What Intuit reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 4,354 | +13.7 | 10.9 |
| first filed | 8,558 | +10.4 | 47.0 |
| first filed | 4,651 | +17.4 | 18.4 |
| first filed | 3,885 | +18.3 | 13.7 |
| first filed | 3,831 | +20.3 | 8.8 |
| first filed | 7,754 | +15.1 | 48.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 540 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 4,566 | 363 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 30 April 2026, filed 20 May 2026; against the quarter to 30 April 2025 | −2.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 8,838 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 175 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 8,663 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 4,705 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 7,669 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,964 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +5.2% on a year | 1,072 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 625 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 18,992 |
| Market value ($M) | 91,315 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 94,279 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 16.0 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 20.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 9.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.2 days of average trading to cover, +10.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $407K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $542K | $357.7M |
The thesis
Intuit's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500, because its AI agents, the $0-federal Credit Karma Tax product and the Sequence acquisition target the price-driven customer losses behind the 2026 slump. The fiscal first-quarter 2027 report on 19 November 2026, after the close, settles it. It shows whether revenue lands inside the guided $4.294–$4.313 billion and whether customer growth restarts in QuickBooks Online and do-it-yourself (DIY) tax.
The shares closed at $342.64 on 11 November 2026, 49.8% below the 52-week high of $682.27 set on 21 November 2025. Zacks put the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 15.1 on 6 November 2026, against a 17.01 industry average. The price already reflects Intuit's own guide of 9–10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. What it does not yet reflect is proof that customer counts have stopped eroding, and that is what the report has to show.
Analysts barely moved ahead of the report. BMO Capital reaffirmed Buy and a $412 target on 11 November 2026 (fiscal.ai). TD Cowen kept Hold and raised its target to $350 from $346 on 9 November 2026 (Benzinga). Intuit has issued no new results or guidance since its 17 September 2026 investor day.
The rating is Medium because profit guidance runs well ahead of revenue and the valuation sits below the software average. Customer growth is the weakest part of the case, and it gets a dated test on 19 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Intuit Inc.
The bull case on Intuit Inc. (INTU), in brief: profit guided well ahead of revenue. The bear case: customers left over price.
Bull case
- Profit guided well ahead of revenue. Intuit guides fiscal 2027 diluted earnings per share (EPS) under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of $20.12–$20.36, against $16.46 in fiscal 2026, on revenue of $23.279–$23.512 billion (investor day release, 17 September 2026).
- Intuit Intelligence now does the work. The 27 October 2026 expansion added AI agents that flag overdue invoices, send payment reminders, benchmark a business against peers and accept payroll-file uploads across QuickBooks, Intuit Enterprise Suite and Intuit Accountant Suite (Intuit release).
- A price answer for DIY tax. Credit Karma Tax launched on 20 October 2026 with $0 federal returns, a flat $15 per state return and an optional $29 Expert Support Bundle (Intuit press release). It targets the price-driven losses management described at the 17 September 2026 investor day.
- Acquiring its way up-market. Intuit agreed on 15 October 2026 to buy Sequence, an AI revenue-management company, on undisclosed terms, for Intuit Enterprise Suite and QuickBooks Online Advanced. The shares rose 6.4% that day (The Motley Fool, 4 November 2026).
- Payments reach keeps widening. Intuit said on 31 October 2026 it is certified for the Federal Reserve's FedNow instant-payment service (fiscal.ai). Partners added QuickBooks Online tools at Intuit Connect, including ApprovalMax Pay on 29 October 2026 and an Avalara sales-tax readiness report on 27 October 2026.
- Targets sit above the shares. BMO Capital's target is $412 (11 November 2026) and MarketBeat's average target was $431.55 on 4 November 2026, both above the $342.64 close on 11 November 2026.
Bear case
- Customers left over price. At the 17 September 2026 investor day, Chief Executive Sasan Goodarzi called price "the number one reason why customers left us." Fiscal 2026 online paying customers grew 3% to 8.90 million, and US federal TurboTax units fell 2% to 39.0 million (fiscal Q4 release, 25 August 2026).
- Growth is guided to slow. Intuit's 25 August 2026 outlook pointed to fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 9–10%, down from 14% in fiscal 2026. MarketBeat's summary of the 25 August 2026 call reported TurboTax revenue guided to grow only 2–3% as Intuit cuts DIY prices.
- Quarterly earnings expected lower. Zacks consensus on 6 November 2026 called for fiscal Q1 EPS of $2.47, down 26.05% from a year earlier, on revenue of $4.3 billion, up 10.81%. Part of the drop reflects Intuit's decision to stop excluding share-based compensation from non-GAAP figures from 1 August 2026.
- Ratings drifted toward Hold. An analyst cut Intuit to Hold from Strong Buy on 29 October 2026, citing slowing customer growth and higher discount rates (fiscal.ai). TD Cowen's $350 target of 9 November 2026 sits barely above the 11 November 2026 close, and MarketBeat counted 16 Buy, 13 Hold and 2 Sell ratings on 4 November 2026.
- AI-disruption fear still hangs over software. The Motley Fool wrote on 4 November 2026 that the shares had lagged on fears that AI would disrupt the business. The 11 November 2026 close remains 49.8% below the 52-week high.
Price setup
The shares closed at $342.64 on 11 November 2026. That is above the 50-day moving average of $317.09 and below the 200-day moving average of $349.86, both as of that close. Adjusted daily closes show a 3.9% fall over three months. The 52-week closing low was $255.07 on 25 June 2026.
The October recovery peaked with closes of $356.64 on 4 November 2026 and $354.84 on 5 November 2026. The shares then fell to $341.50 on 6 November 2026, down 3.76% on a day the S&P 500 rose 0.32% (Zacks), and closed between $338.23 and $342.64 in the three sessions after. A close back above the 200-day average before the report would put the shares above their long-run trend; the 50-day average is the nearer level beneath.
SEC Form 4 filings show the chief executive and four other officers exercising options on 1 October 2026, with shares withheld for tax at $275.71, and directors exercising small option grants on 22 October 2026 and 31 October 2026. These are compensation transactions, with no open-market buying or selling among them.
Catalysts ahead
- 19 November 2026: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report after the close, call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific. Tests revenue against the $4.294–$4.313 billion guide and GAAP EPS against $1.71–$1.75, and shows whether QuickBooks Online customer additions recover and the business platform reaches the guided 13–14% growth.
- ~26 January 2027 (est.): Opening of the 2027 US tax-filing season. First live demand test for Credit Karma Tax's $0 federal tier; the results arrive with the fiscal Q3 2027 report around May 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close below $270, which would put the shares back into the late-September 2026 range and erase the October recovery. Business-platform revenue growth below 13% or a cut to fiscal 2027 revenue guidance at the 19 November 2026 report would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Agent platforms such as Meta's Muse take over the small-business customer relationship, reducing QuickBooks to a back-end source with less pricing power. Confirmed by: slowing QuickBooks Online customer additions or lower average revenue per customer at the fiscal Q1 2027 report on 19 November 2026.
- Credit Karma Tax's $0 federal filing pulls paying TurboTax customers down to the free tier, lowering revenue per return. Confirmed by: consumer-segment revenue growth lagging unit growth, or falling TurboTax revenue per return, in the fiscal Q3 2027 report.
- Price cuts needed to win customers back compress growth and margins. Confirmed by: business-platform revenue growth below the guided 13–14% range at the fiscal Q1 2027 report.
- The October rotation into beaten-down software reverses before the report, pulling the shares down without company news. Confirmed by: closes below the 50-day moving average before the 19 November 2026 report with no new negative company news.
- Mid-market acquisitions such as Sequence raise cost and integration work without visible revenue. Confirmed by: a disclosed purchase price or acquisition-related charge that lowers fiscal 2027 GAAP EPS guidance below $20.12.
- Free-filing marketing draws renewed regulatory action, as in the $141 million 2022 multistate settlement over TurboTax free claims. Confirmed by: a state attorney general or Federal Trade Commission inquiry into Credit Karma Tax marketing.
What it trades with
Intuit traded against the AI-hardware trade in October. The Motley Fool attributed part of the 24% October gain to money rotating out of AI stocks into beaten-down software, and Zacks reported on 6 November 2026 that the shares rose 16.77% over a month in which the computer and technology sector fell 18.34%. A reversal of that rotation would likely weigh on the shares without any company news. The shares also move with application-software peers such as Autodesk on AI-disruption sentiment. Credit Karma ties part of revenue to US consumer-credit conditions, and TurboTax concentrates revenue in the February–April quarter.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- BMO Capital Markets analyst Daniel Jester reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $412 price target on Intuit. BMO Capital note, reported by fiscal.ai · as of
- TD Cowen kept a Hold rating on Intuit and raised its price target to $350 from $346. TD Cowen note, reported by Benzinga and fiscal.ai · as of
- Zacks consensus for fiscal Q1 2027 is EPS of $2.47 (down 26.05% year over year) on revenue of $4.3 billion (up 10.81%); forward P/E 15.1 versus a 17.01 industry average. Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 'Intuit (INTU) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains' · as of
- Intuit will release fiscal first-quarter 2027 results on 19 November 2026, after the market close, with a conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific. Intuit announcement, reported by fiscal.ai · as of
- Intuit reaffirmed fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $4.294–$4.313 billion and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.71–$1.75, plus fiscal 2027 revenue of $23.279–$23.512 billion and GAAP EPS of $20.12–$20.36. Intuit Investor Day 2026 release · as of
- Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 14% to $21.4 billion; GAAP EPS rose 20% to $16.46; online paying customers grew 3% to 8.90 million; US federal TurboTax units fell 2% to 39.0 million. Intuit fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- MarketBeat counted 16 Buy, 13 Hold and 2 Sell ratings on Intuit, for an average rating of Hold and an average price target of $431.55. MarketBeat institutional-filing alert · as of
- Intuit shares rose 24% in October 2026, helped by rotation out of AI stocks, the Sequence acquisition on 15 October and new Intuit Intelligence features. The Motley Fool, 'Why Intuit Stock Jumped 24% in October' · as of
Sources
- Intuit (INTU) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Why Intuit Stock Jumped 24% in October · fool.com ·
- Intuit Inc. $INTU Stock Position Boosted by Aware Super Pty Ltd as trustee of Aware Super · marketbeat.com ·
- Intuit Q4 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·
- INTU shares lag as FY27 growth targets face skepticism · tradingpedia.com ·
- Intuit Stock Pops on Sequence Acquisition News · finance.yahoo.com
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