ARHS · Arhaus

The thesis

Arhaus's furniture orders are running far ahead of deliveries, which gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 into the Q4 2026 report expected in late February 2027. That report settles the case: it shows whether comparable delivered sales grow inside management's 6% to 12% range.

The order book is the main support. Comparable written sales rose 13.9% in Q3 2026, while comparable delivered sales rose 2.6%. Client deposits, which customers pay when they order, reached $325.0 million at 30 September 2026, up 37.7% from $235.9 million at 31 December 2025 (Q3 2026 release, Form 8-K).

Q3 missed on deliveries and profit. Net revenue rose 6.8% to $368.1 million, against a $370.6 million consensus reported by Benzinga on 5 November 2026. Net income fell 36.0% to $7.8 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) fell 12.3% to $27.4 million. Arhaus raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.465 billion to $1.485 billion and left profit guidance unchanged.

Analysts moved toward the order book after the report. TD Cowen kept a Buy rating and raised its target to $16 on 9 November 2026, and Guggenheim kept a Buy rating and raised its target to $17 from $12 on 10 November 2026, per Benzinga. Telsey Advisory raised its target to $14 from $12 on 7 November 2026 and kept a Market Perform rating. The shares closed at $14.56 on 11 November 2026, between those targets, so the price already reflects Q4 delivery growth landing inside the guided range.

The rating is Medium because the deposit balance and raised revenue guidance point to faster deliveries in Q4, while a 50.1% three-month gain and insider sales on SEC Form 4 filings leave little room for another delivery miss.

Bullish and bearish views on Arhaus, Inc.

The bull case on Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS), in brief: orders accelerated for a second quarter. The bear case: delivered sales have missed twice.

Bull case

• Orders accelerated for a second quarter. Comparable written sales grew 13.9% in Q3 after 12.5% in Q2, per the company's 5 November 2026 and 6 August 2026 releases.
• The order book grew sharply. Client deposits rose 37.7% to $325.0 million between 31 December 2025 and 30 September 2026, per the Q3 release. That balance is revenue still to be delivered.
• Q4 guidance topped expectations. Arhaus guided Q4 revenue to $398 million to $418 million against a $392.9 million consensus, per Benzinga on 5 November 2026. The finance chief described October as strong, per a call summary on Investing.com.
• Larger orders grew without deeper discounts. Orders above $25,000 rose 35% and orders above $100,000 rose 30% in Q3, per the same 5 November 2026 call summary. Management said promotions were flat year over year.
• Two Buy-rated targets sit above the price. Guggenheim's $17 target (10 November 2026) and TD Cowen's $16 target (9 November 2026) are both above the $14.56 close on 11 November 2026, per Benzinga.
• Part of the expense pressure should reverse. The finance chief said written sales ran about 20% above delivered sales in Q3, costing about 1 percentage point of expense leverage, because commissions are paid when an order is written, per the 5 November 2026 call summary. That cost reverses as orders are delivered.

Bear case

• Delivered sales have missed twice. Comparable delivered-sales growth slowed from 4.0% in Q2 to 2.6% in Q3, per the company's releases. The 2.6% figure fell short of Telsey Advisory's 5.0% forecast.
• Profit fell while sales grew. Q3 diluted earnings per share were $0.05 against $0.09 a year earlier, per the Q3 release. Full-year net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance did not rise with revenue guidance on 5 November 2026.
• Insiders sold into the rise. Chief executive John Reed sold 147,431 shares and the 2018 Reed Dynasty Trust sold 127,965 shares on 3 November 2026 and 4 November 2026 at an average $12.63 under Rule 10b5-1 plans, per SEC Form 4 filings dated 5 November 2026. Chief accounting officer Christian Sedor sold 4,450 shares at an average $15.08 on 9 November 2026, per a Form 4 dated 10 November 2026.
• The price is above two targets. The $14.56 close on 11 November 2026 sits above Telsey's $14 target (7 November 2026) and Piper Sandler's $13 target set with its upgrade on 20 October 2026, per Yahoo Finance.
• Tariff refunds flatter 2026 margins. Q2 2026 gross margin included a $23.8 million tariff refund, and management said Q3 also benefited from refunds, per the 5 November 2026 call. The 2027 comparison loses that help.

Price setup

The shares closed at $14.56 on 11 November 2026, 4.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $15.17 set on 9 November 2026. The highest close in the past year was $15.02 on 9 November 2026. The shares then fell on 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026, to $14.89 and $14.56.

The report-day close was $12.94 on 5 November 2026, down from $13.15 on 4 November 2026. The shares then rose to $14.19 on 6 November 2026. That two-session rise is the market's reaction to the order book and Q4 guidance.

As of 11 November 2026, the 50-day moving average of adjusted daily closes was $10.27 and the 200-day moving average was $8.38. The shares are up 50.1% over three months from a close of $9.70 on 13 August 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $5.75 on 15 May 2026. No company event is confirmed before the Q4 report, so analyst revisions and consumer spending data are what move the price until then.

Catalysts ahead

• ~24 December 2026 (est.): End of the six- to seven-week holiday delivery window management described on 5 November 2026. Delivery volume in this period decides where Q4 lands inside the guided 6% to 12% comparable delivered-sales range.
• ~25 February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 earnings report; date not announced. Comparable delivered-sales growth of at least 6% would show the order book converting to revenue. A figure under 6% would be a third straight delivery shortfall and would break the case.

What would change the view

A weekly close below $9.80, under the 50-day moving average and near the $9.70 close of 13 August 2026, which would show the post-report rally has failed. Q4 2026 comparable delivered-sales growth below the 6% low end of guidance, or negative comparable written sales, would separately break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• The order book does not convert to delivered sales at the pace management guided. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 comparable delivered-sales growth below the 6% low end of guidance or revenue below $398 million.
• Order growth depends on marketing spending that keeps profit from rising with sales. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 net income under $71 million or adjusted EBITDA under $160 million despite revenue inside the raised guidance.
• Demand fades after a strong run in large orders and new clients. Confirmed by: comparable written sales turning negative in Q4 2026, an outcome management said on 5 November 2026 it is not forecasting.
• Freight and tariff costs block the 2027 gross-margin target as tariff refunds drop out of the comparison. Confirmed by: management lowering its 2027 gross-margin target of 40% or more, or raising its $30 million to $40 million annual tariff cost estimate.
• The shares already price in a strong Q4 after a 50.1% three-month gain to 11 November 2026. Confirmed by: further open-market sales by officers or the Reed trust reported on SEC Form 4 filings, or analysts cutting targets on holiday-season data.

What it trades with

Arhaus sells high-priced furniture made to order, so demand follows housing turnover, mortgage rates and spending by wealthier households. Tariff policy affects cost of goods sold directly, as the 2026 refunds and the $30 million to $40 million annual tariff cost estimate given on 5 November 2026 show. The shares trade with other consumer discretionary names, so broad retail weakness or a jump in mortgage rates would weigh on them regardless of Arhaus's order book. The dual-class structure leaves a smaller Class A float, which can make price moves sharper in both directions.