Dossier · ARES · Dormant
ARES · Ares Management Corporation · Stock research
Last analysed ·
Current thesis
ARES — research research dossier: thesis, invalidation trigger, archetype.
Invalidation trigger
A weekly close below $125 unwinds the entire +9.5% three-month advance into the 2026-08-07 close of $136.85; secondary break if the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print shows a second sequential rise in underperforming investments after the Q2 uptick disclosed 2026-07-29.
Thesis status
Open commitment scored if the trigger above fires How this is scored →Notes
- Headline $1.29 is after-tax realized income per Class A share; Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $0.49. The two series diverge materially every quarter.
- Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) is a separate NYSE-listed BDC managed by Ares; headlines about the two entities are frequently conflated.
- A 6.75% Series B mandatory convertible preferred is outstanding ($0.84375 quarterly dividend); conversion adds Class A shares at the mandatory date.
- Multi-class structure: Class A and non-voting common trade; the per-share figures in the release are Class A. Voting power sits outside the traded class.
- Common dividend record date 2026-09-16 ($1.35, payable 2026-09-30); the price series adjusts around the ex-date.
Related · shared themes
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Five straight up sessions took HPE to a $53.22 close on 2026-08-07 with the 2026-08-04 gap floor at $50.24 still untested; Trefis put the five-day move at +19.8% against +5.6% for the S&P 500, so this leg is no longer pure sector beta. Forward P/E 13.79 versus 49.66 trailing. The still-unconfirmed ~2026-09-02 Q3 print against the $11.5–12.1B / $0.88–0.93 guide is the binary.
SIMO
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Controller-mix decoupling got its first hard datapoint on 2026-08-06 — SIMO +8.42% to $267.43 while Western Digital fell 16% and SanDisk 11% on beat-but-guide-light prints — then gave most of it back on 08-07 (-4.23% to $256.12, $18.87 off the high, thinnest volume of the run). Six sessions after a beat-and-raise the ADS sits $1.02 above the 07-30 reaction close; the 50-day at $286.82 is unreclaimed.
XMTR
Xometry, Inc.
Q2 on 2026-08-04 cleared every self-set number — revenue $229.3M (+41%), marketplace +45%, Adj EBITDA $14.1M — and the new CEO raised FY2026 growth to 33–34% from 27–28%. Price took three sessions to agree, closing $93.15 on 08-07 back above the $90.65 50-day, still under the $106.08 July high.
DAVE
Dave Inc.
Beat-and-raise sold hard: $430.16 on 08-05 to $317.93 on 08-07, -26.1% in two sessions on the window's heaviest volume, while four brokers raised targets to $449–$490 on 08-06. Growth intact (FY26 guide up to $725–735M, adj EPS $17.00–17.50); the multiple broke (forward P/E 17.29 from 26.52). Narrative SATURATED, no dated fundamental gate before the Q3 print.
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