AGM · Federal Agricultural Mortgage

The thesis

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Its loan book is growing much faster than its earnings, and the fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected in February 2027, shows whether spread income and credit costs stabilise.

The shares closed at $175.24 on 12 November 2026, 29.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $248.28 set on 3 August 2026. The 3-month price change is −24.2%.

Farmer Mac reported record outstanding business volume of $38.5 billion at 30 September 2026, up 24% from a year earlier. Net effective spread, the company's non-GAAP measure of spread income, was $113.9 million. That is up 16% from a year earlier and down 3% from the $117.4 million of the second quarter.

Diluted core earnings per share were $4.82, up 7% from a year earlier, against an analyst estimate of $5.20 (third-quarter coverage, 5 November 2026). Revenue of $122.733 million beat the $121.100 million estimate. The shares closed at $197.97 on 5 November 2026, the day of the report, and fell to $180.20 the next session.

Bullish and bearish views on Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

The bull case on Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM), in brief: volume keeps compounding. The bear case: earnings missed and spread slipped.

Bull case

• Volume keeps compounding. Outstanding business volume reached $38.5 billion at 30 September 2026, up 24% from a year earlier, per Farmer Mac's third-quarter release. Management maintained its target of roughly 8% to 11% average annual volume growth through 2030, as reported by Securities.io on 5 November 2026.
• Spread income still grows from a year earlier. Net effective spread of $113.9 million was up 16% from the third quarter of 2025. Farmer Mac attributed the sequential dip to a nonrecurring item that lifted second-quarter interest income.
• Infrastructure finance is expanding. Infrastructure finance volume was $14.0 billion at 30 September 2026, up from $11.8 billion at year-end 2025. Power & Utilities was $8.4 billion, up 14% from a year earlier.
• Earnings under US accounting rules grew faster than core earnings. Diluted earnings per share were $5.03, up 13% from a year earlier, in the 5 November 2026 release.
• The dividend continues. Farmer Mac declared quarterly common and preferred dividends on 12 November 2026; the previous common dividend, declared on 12 August 2026, was $1.60 per share.

Bear case

• Earnings missed and spread slipped. Core earnings per share of $4.82 fell short of the $5.20 estimate. Core earnings were $52.6 million, down $6.2 million from the second quarter's $58.8 million, and core return on equity fell to 16% from 18.9%.
• Credit costs are rising. The provision for losses was $11.1 million, against $7.4 million a year earlier and $7.0 million in the second quarter. Management cited volume growth, one telecommunications credit in Broadband Infrastructure and credit migration. The allowance for losses rose to $48.3 million from $47.2 million at 30 June 2026.
• Delinquencies rose sharply. Securities.io reported on 5 November 2026 that 90-day delinquencies were $206 million, a 0.54% rate, up from $139 million, or 0.37%, in the second quarter.
• The shares fell hard after the report. The close of $197.97 on 5 November 2026 compares with $180.20 on 6 November 2026 and $173.58 on 10 November 2026, the lowest close since the report. The shares then closed at $174.10 on 11 November 2026 and $175.24 on 12 November 2026.
• Leadership change is pending. Farmer Mac said at its March 2026 Investor Day that President and Chief Operating Officer Zach Carpenter will succeed Chief Executive Officer Brad Nordholm, with no completion date given.

Price setup

The shares closed at $175.24 on 12 November 2026, below both the 50-day average of $207.74 and the 200-day average of $187.60 (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week closing low is $139.00 on 19 March 2026, and the 52-week high is $248.28 intraday on 3 August 2026.

Closes after the report ran $180.20 (6 November 2026), $181.57 (9 November 2026), $173.58 (10 November 2026), $174.10 (11 November 2026) and $175.24 (12 November 2026). The shares rose slightly in each of the last two sessions and remain below both averages.

The price already reflects the third-quarter earnings miss and rising delinquencies: the shares closed on 12 November 2026 well under their August high, and the 3-month change is −24.2%.

Insider activity is minor. SEC Form 4 filings dated 2 October 2026 show seven directors receiving grants of 7 to 97 shares at $206.92 on 30 September 2026, and one director gifted 225 shares on 21 August 2026. No open-market insider sales appear. Farmer Mac also filed an 8-K under "other events" on 12 November 2026, alongside the dividend declaration.

Catalysts ahead

• ~11 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether net effective spread recovers from $113.9 million and whether the provision and 90-day delinquencies keep rising from $11.1 million and 0.54%.

What would change the view

A daily close above $206.55, near the 50-day average and above the close before the third-quarter report on 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. A fourth-quarter 2026 net effective spread above the $117.4 million reported for the second quarter of 2026 would also show the case failing.

What it trades with

Farmer Mac's earnings track farm credit conditions and agricultural land values through its Farm & Ranch book, which was $22.0 billion of the $37.2 billion total at 30 June 2026. Its infrastructure book ties it to utility and data-center capital spending. The shares were added to the S&P Banks Select Industry Index in September 2026, per Simply Wall St on 24 September 2026, so regional-bank and specialty-lender sentiment also moves them. AGM is the non-voting Class C stock; the voting Class A stock trades separately as AGM.A.