CLMT · Calumet

The thesis

Calumet's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A record third quarter has not stopped the selling. The case now rests on two things management has promised but not yet delivered: Montana Renewables back online in the last week of November 2026 after its expansion tie-in, and a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) run-rate of 80 million gallons a year by year-end 2026.

The shares closed at $35.89 on 11 November 2026, down from $43.35 on 5 November 2026, the day before the report. Adjusted daily closes show a 26.4% fall over three months. The last close is 40.1% below the intraday 52-week high of $59.87 set on 21 September 2026. The rating is Low because the operating results are strong while the price keeps falling, and the next proof points come only after the plant restarts.

The market is pricing the third quarter as a peak. On 6 November 2026, MarketBeat reported an 8.8% intraday fall to $39.55 on the same day Calumet reported $2.91 a share against a $1.59 consensus cited by Benzinga. Calumet trades as a legacy specialty refiner turning existing equipment into renewable-fuel capacity. Policy credits, compliance costs and the timing of the Montana project move the shares as much as quarterly profit does.

Bullish and bearish views on Calumet, Inc.

The bull case on Calumet, Inc. (CLMT), in brief: the third quarter beat by a wide margin. The bear case: the selling has continued after the report.

Bull case

• The third quarter beat by a wide margin. Calumet reported net income of $273.3 million, or $2.91 per share, on 6 November 2026. Sales were $1.6829 billion, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) with tax attributes was $347.2 million, up from $92.5 million a year earlier.
• Specialty margins nearly doubled. Specialty Products & Solutions adjusted EBITDA was $248.1 million, up from $80.2 million a year earlier, per the 6 November 2026 release. On the call that day, management put the specialty materials margin above $108 a barrel, up from $62.
• Montana Renewables set a record. The subsidiary earned $80.4 million of adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes in the third quarter, or $1.86 a gallon, per the 6 November 2026 release.
• The expansion tie-in started on schedule. Management said on 6 November 2026 that the tie-in began that week as planned, with the plant expected back online in the last week of November. The SAF targets were restated: 80 million gallons a year by year-end 2026 and 200 million in 2028.
• Calumet now owns all of Montana Renewables' common equity. Under the 5 November 2026 agreement, Warburg Pincus exchanged its 13.17% stake for warrants on up to 8%, exercisable only above a $750 million common equity value. Calumet Montana Refining also leases expansion equipment to the subsidiary for about $30 million of annual income, subject to adjustments.
• Debt is coming down. Calumet has retired about $265 million of debt since July, including $150 million of 2028 notes redeemed on 25 October 2026. Management put net leverage for the restricted group, which excludes Montana Renewables, at about 2.3 times on 6 November 2026.

Bear case

• The selling has continued after the report. Adjusted daily closes show $39.64 on 6 November 2026, $36.06 on 9 November 2026, $34.91 on 10 November 2026 and $35.89 on 11 November 2026. MarketBeat noted on 6 November 2026 that Zacks Research cut the stock to hold from strong buy.
• The fourth quarter carries a plant outage. Montana Renewables went offline for the tie-in in the week of 6 November 2026 and is not expected back until the last week of November, per the earnings call. The fourth-quarter report will include that downtime.
• Year-to-date results are still negative. The 6 November 2026 release shows a $139.6 million net loss for the first nine months. Third-quarter derivative losses were $153.2 million, against $1.5 million a year earlier.
• Compliance obligations have grown. The current obligation for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) rose to $303.4 million at 30 September 2026, from $169.3 million at year-end 2025, per the third-quarter release.
• The new Warburg terms cost more. Under the 5 November 2026 revision, Warburg Pincus's preferred units rise to about $395 million from about $346 million, and the preferred return rises to 11.5%. Management said on 6 November 2026 that the return will be paid in kind, added to the balance, until the project is complete.
• The balance sheet shows a deficit. Stockholders' equity was a deficit of $870.7 million at 30 September 2026, with $225.2 million of cash, per the third-quarter release.
• A director sold in the open market. SEC Form 4 filings show director Stephen Mawer exercised 61,387 options and sold 24,555 shares on 25 September 2026. Filings by the chief executive, the chief financial officer and two other officers on 25 September 2026 and 19 October 2026 show option exercises with shares withheld for tax.

Price setup

The close of $35.89 on 11 November 2026 is below the 200-day moving average of $39.33 and far below the 50-day moving average of $52.58, both as of that close. The shares broke under the 200-day average in the 9 November 2026 session and have not closed back above it. The lowest close since the report was $34.91 on 10 November 2026.

The longer range is still wide. The 52-week closing low is $18.22 from 20 November 2025, and the intraday 52-week high is $59.87 from 21 September 2026. The 3-month reference close was $48.79 on 13 August 2026.

Analyst views are split. MarketBeat's count on 6 November 2026 showed two buys, four holds and one sell, with a $54.75 average target. The last close sits well below that average.

Catalysts ahead

• ~30 November 2026 (est.): Montana Renewables restart after the MaxSAF tie-in. Management expects the plant back online in the last week of November; a restart in that window keeps the year-end run-rate goal possible, while a slip into 2027 breaks the timetable.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Year-end SAF run-rate checkpoint. Management targets an annual SAF run-rate of 80 million gallons by this date; reaching it would show the expansion working, and falling short breaks the timetable.
• ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. First report after the tie-in; shows the outage's cost, post-expansion Montana Renewables volumes, remaining capital against the $137 million plan and whether specialty margins held.

What would change the view

A daily close above $40.20, which would put the shares back over the 200-day moving average and the 6 November 2026 post-report close and show them leading the S&P 500; so would Calumet announcing the 80 million gallon SAF run-rate reached before 31 December 2026.

What it trades with

The shares follow renewable-fuel policy: 45Z clean-fuel credits, RIN prices and decisions on small-refinery exemptions. They also follow specialty refining margins, which the company tracks per barrel against crude costs. Diesel and jet fuel cracks feed both segments. Calumet has partly decoupled from crude benchmarks because policy credits drive Montana Renewables' earnings. The Warburg Pincus warrant ties some upside to any future sale or listing of the subsidiary above a $750 million common equity value.