QTRX · Quanterix
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $3.71
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
21.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $3.71, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $3.71, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 35.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −13.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 38.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −64.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 77.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.4
All filed numbers
What Quanterix reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 35.0 | −13.1 | 38.6 | −64.3 |
| first filed | 32.9 | +34.4 | 38.5 | −150.2 |
| first filed | 36.4 | +20.1 | 42.7 | −113.6 |
| first filed | 43.9 | +24.7 | — | −56.4 |
| first filed restated | 40.2 | +12.3 | 39.5 | −92.8 |
| first filed restated | 24.5 | −28.8 | 40.9 | −151.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −21.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −111 | −21.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −55.9 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 77.4 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 77.4 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −39.6% on a year | 17.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −39.6% on a year | 17.1 |
| Receivables ($M) | 27.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | 44.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 219 |
| Market value ($M) | 139 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 61.8 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 0.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.4 days of average trading to cover, −7.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $296K | $0 |
The thesis
Quanterix's third-quarter report gave the shares a revenue beat but no new proof of a recovery. Management cut its year-end 2026 cash forecast to about $70 million from about $80 million and moved the spatial-biology panels to early 2027. The fourth-quarter report, which tests the narrowed $142–146 million revenue range, settles the case.
The shares closed at $3.28 on 10 November 2026, according to adjusted daily closes. That is 59.3% below the 52-week high of $8.06 and 14.7% above the level three months earlier. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, is 62.4.
The 9 November 2026 report showed revenue of $34.974 million, above the $33.853 million estimate Benzinga cited. Earnings per share were $(0.46), against an estimate of $(0.43). Revenue was up 6.3% from the second quarter and down about 13% from $40.2 million a year earlier.
The story is well known: the August guidance cut and the October China clearance are both well known, and the November report added a smaller guidance trim and a later panel date rather than a new driver. The view is wrong if fourth-quarter results show revenue above the range and China launch terms.
Bullish and bearish views on Quanterix Corporation
The bull case on Quanterix Corporation (QTRX), in brief: revenue beat the estimate. The bear case: cash forecast was cut again.
Bull case
- Revenue beat the estimate. Third-quarter revenue of $34.974 million exceeded the $33.853 million estimate (Benzinga, 9 November 2026). CEO Everett Cunningham cited sequential improvement across all businesses in the company's release.
- Losses narrowed sharply from a year earlier. The net loss was $21.6 million against $33.5 million in the third quarter of 2025 (8-K, 9 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA, which strips out non-cash and one-off items, was a loss of $12.2 million.
- Margins improved on an adjusted basis. Adjusted gross margin was 47.4%, up 150 basis points from a year earlier, and 2026 guidance is 48–50% (8-K, 9 November 2026).
- An analyst raised its target. TD Cowen kept its hold rating and raised its price target to $4 from $3.50 on 10 November 2026 (Benzinga). The $3.50 target was set on 13 October 2026.
- Clinical access is widening. China's National Medical Products Administration cleared the HD-X and SR-X instruments and four blood tests on 7 October 2026, sold through partner Innovita. Florida traditional Medicaid and state employee coverage for qualifying Alzheimer's blood tests, including LucentAD Complete, began on 1 November 2026 (8-K, 9 November 2026).
Bear case
- Cash forecast was cut again. Cash, equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash were $80.7 million at 30 September 2026, and management now expects about $70 million at year-end, down from about $80 million (8-K, 9 November 2026). The company reports no debt.
- The top of the revenue range was removed. Guidance narrowed to $142–146 million from $142–148 million on 9 November 2026. This follows the 10 August 2026 cut from $169–174 million.
- Revenue fell from a year earlier. Third-quarter revenue was about 13% below the $40.2 million of the third quarter of 2025 (8-K, 9 November 2026). Earnings per share missed the $(0.43) estimate.
- The spatial panels slipped. The TIME tumour-immune panel and the high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panel now ship in early 2027. The 25 September 2026 company release had confirmed fourth-quarter 2026 shipment.
- China terms remain undisclosed. The third-quarter release says Innovita is expanding access in China, but it gives no revenue terms or launch date.
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.28 on 10 November 2026. The shares closed at $3.12 on 28 October 2026, and have risen about 5% since then. The close sits above Canaccord Genuity's $3.00 target (set 17 August 2026) and the $3.25 consensus target MarketBeat reported on 13 October 2026. It sits below TD Cowen's new $4 target.
The shares remain well under the 52-week high of $8.06. The 62.4 RSI reading shows recent buying, not an extreme.
Crowding evidence is thin. The report is now out, so no earnings date hangs over the shares. The company news and filings reviewed for this note show no insider sales or share issuance. MarketBeat's October tally showed one sell and two holds among three analysts, which points to little enthusiasm from the sell side.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026: Year-end 2026 cash balance against management's forecast of about $70 million. The forecast was cut from about $80 million on 9 November 2026; a lower figure would raise the odds of an equity raise.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report (date not announced). Tests whether full-year revenue lands inside the $142–146 million range and gives the first update on the early-2027 spatial panel shipments.
- ~2027-Q1 (est.): Shipment of the TIME and high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panels. The spatial-content part of the case rests on these panels; the timing has already slipped once, from fourth quarter 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $3.71, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Quanterix sells research instruments and assays to academic and pharmaceutical labs, so its shares move with life-science tools peers and with sentiment on research budgets. The company said in August that its guidance assumes no improvement in academic or pharmaceutical end markets. Its Alzheimer's blood-test business also depends on payer coverage decisions, such as the Florida Medicaid coverage that began on 1 November 2026. It trades as a small-cap shares story on its own results, and no theme currently carries it.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $34.974 million, up 6.3% from the prior quarter and down about 13% from $40.2 million a year earlier; consensus estimate was $33.853 million. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Benzinga · as of
- Q3 2026 net loss was $21.6 million, versus $33.5 million a year earlier; EPS was $(0.46) against a $(0.43) estimate. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Benzinga · as of
- 2026 revenue guidance narrowed to $142–146 million from $142–148 million; adjusted gross margin guidance is 48–50%. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- Cash, equivalents, marketable securities and restricted cash were $80.7 million at 30 September 2026; year-end 2026 cash forecast is about $70 million, down from about $80 million. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA loss was $12.2 million (negative 34.8% margin); GAAP gross margin was 38.6% and adjusted gross margin 47.4%. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- The TIME tumour-immune panel and high-plex antibody-drug-conjugate panel now ship in early 2027; the 25 September 2026 release had confirmed fourth-quarter 2026 shipment. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1; Quanterix press release 25 September 2026 · as of
- TD Cowen maintained its hold rating and raised its price target on Quanterix to $4 from $3.50. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Florida traditional Medicaid members and state employees gained coverage on 1 November 2026 for qualifying blood-based Alzheimer's biomarker tests, including LucentAD Complete. Quanterix Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
Sources
- Quanterix Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Quanterix Corp - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Finviz
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