AIFF · Firefly Neuroscience
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.37
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
31.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.37, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 17.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.37, the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; a disclosed contract with stated revenue to Firefly would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +66.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 81.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −238.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 2.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.8
All filed numbers
What Firefly Neuroscience reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.6 | +66.8 | 81.1 | −238.3 |
| first filed | 0.5 | +71.9 | 49.2 | −384.0 |
| first filed | 0.5 | +1027.9 | 45.6 | −414.4 |
| first filed | 0.4 | +677.4 | 44.2 | −607.0 |
| first filed | 0.4 | +1075.8 | 37.6 | −684.5 |
| first filed | 0.3 | +2890.0 | 91.6 | −546.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −1.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −7.9 | −1.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 30 September 2025, filed 12 November 2025; against the quarter to 30 September 2024 | +90.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −6.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 8.0 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 31 March 2026; convertible debt | 0.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 10 November 2026 | 2.7 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −67.3% on a year | 0.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.1 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 13.4 |
| Market value ($M) | 14.7 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 12.0 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.9 days of average trading to cover, −31.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Firefly Neuroscience's third-quarter revenue grew, but the company is still small, still burning cash and still carrying going-concern doubt, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months. What settles the call is whether the Radial, NeuroSigma and Versus headset arrangements produce revenue the company states in dollars.
The Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026, as summarised by Panabee, shows third-quarter revenue of $647,000, up 67% from the third quarter of 2025 and above the $514,000 reported for the second quarter. Gross margin was 81%, against 38% a year earlier. Cash and equivalents were $8.0 million on 30 September 2026, down from $9.23 million on 30 June 2026. The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026, 69.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $3.15 set on 26 March 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Firefly Neuroscience, Inc.
The bull case on Firefly Neuroscience, Inc. (AIFF), in brief: revenue is growing from a small base. The bear case: cash is falling against a going-concern warning.
Bull case
- Revenue is growing from a small base. Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $647,000, against $514,000 in the second quarter of 2026 and $299,000 in the second quarter of 2025, per the Form 10-Q filings.
- Gross margin widened sharply. Panabee's summary of the 10-Q reports an 81% gross margin and $525,000 of gross profit for the third quarter, against a 38% margin a year earlier.
- Losses have narrowed. The nine-month 2026 net loss was $5.5 million, a 69% reduction from the same period of 2025, per Panabee's summary of the 10-Q. The six-month loss reported in the 10 June-Q was $3.99 million, against $14.76 million a year earlier.
- Three commercial channels exist. Firefly announced a Radial integration on 17 September 2026 and clinician outreach for NeuroSigma's Monarch eTNS pediatric ADHD device on 25 September 2026. On 27 October 2026 it said more than 3,000 Versus headsets have shipped.
- No new shares were sold under the at-the-market program. Panabee's summary reports the $7.4 million program was untapped on 30 September 2026.
Bear case
- Cash is falling against a going-concern warning. Cash was $8.0 million on 30 September 2026, and Panabee's summary of the 10-Q says substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern remains, with a $117.0 million accumulated deficit and $4.8 million of operating cash used in nine months.
- No partnership states its economics. The Radial, NeuroSigma and Versus releases of 17 September 2026, 25 September 2026 and 27 October 2026 give no revenue figure attributable to Firefly, and the third-quarter report offers no guidance, per Panabee.
- Financing remains available at prices above the market. The March 2026 purchase agreement priced units at $1.50 and gave investors the right to invest up to $18 million more in later closings. The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026, so any new issuance would come at a lower price or with more shares.
- Control weaknesses persist. Panabee's summary reports unremediated material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, with management targeting remediation by the second quarter of 2027.
- Finance leadership changed. An 8-K filed 14 September 2026 disclosed the termination of chief financial officer Paul Krzywicki, effective 24 September 2026, and the appointment of a chief accounting officer.
Price setup
The shares closed at $0.96 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $1.14 and below the 200-day average, and 11.6% lower than the adjusted close of $1.09 on 14 August 2026, the three-month reference date. The 52-week closing low is $0.64, set on 23 February 2026.
Recent closes show a rebound from the lows of the period. The shares closed at $0.91 on 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026, $0.95 on 9 November 2026, $0.98 on 10 November 2026 and $1.04 on 11 November 2026, then gave back to $0.96 on 12 November 2026. The $1.04 close is the first above $1.00 in this run, so Nasdaq's 30-business-day minimum bid price count, if it was running, would restart on closes above that level.
The report is out and no scheduled company event sits inside the next 30 days. Price direction now depends on financing filings and any partnership revenue disclosure.
Catalysts ahead
No dated event is on file for this company as of 12 November 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.37, the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; a disclosed contract with stated revenue to Firefly would point the same way.
What it trades with
Firefly trades on its own company news, not on a peer group or an index. Its September move came from two partnership releases, and its November moves followed the third-quarter filing. It is a microcap, with a market value of $18.6 million on Benzinga's 25 September 2026 figure, so single press releases and financing filings drive the price more than market direction does.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $647,000, up 67% year on year, with gross margin of 81% against 38% a year earlier. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026, via Panabee summary · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $8.0 million on 30 September 2026; nine-month operating cash use was $4.8 million; accumulated deficit was $117.0 million; going-concern doubt remains. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026, via Panabee summary · as of
- The $7.4 million at-the-market equity program had no sales through 30 September 2026. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026, via Panabee summary · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $514,000, against $299,000 in the second quarter of 2025. June 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Nine-month 2026 net loss was $5.5 million, a 69% reduction from the same period of 2025. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026, via Panabee summary · as of
- Firefly said more than 3,000 Versus EEG headsets have shipped; the release gave no revenue figure. Company release (GlobeNewswire) via BiopharmaWatch · as of
- Chief financial officer Paul Krzywicki was terminated effective 24 September 2026, and a chief accounting officer was appointed. Form 8-K filed 14 September 2026 · as of
Sources
Related · shared themes
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
Adaptive Biotechnologies is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because clonoSEQ tests rose 46% in the third quarter…
AXGN
Axogen
Axogen's nerve-repair revenue grew 26.2% last quarter and a $754 million prostate market sits outside guidance, giving the shares a modest…
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
Castle Biosciences raised 2026 revenue guidance to $385–395 million and held its 50–52% TissueCypher volume growth plan; the fourth-quarter…
DXCM
DexCom
Dexcom's raised 2026 outlook and 25.3% third-quarter operating margin give the shares a modest edge after a diabetes-device sell-off erased…
See also · stocks to watch