AIRO · AIRO Group Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.79
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
38.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.79, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 49.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.79, just above the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A full-year 2026 sales guide raised above the $113.634 million top of the prior range would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 17.5
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +178.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 56.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −75.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −31.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 53.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −20.4
All filed numbers
What AIRO Group Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 17.5 | +178.6 | 56.5 | −75.0 |
| first filed | 43.2 | +75.9 | 64.1 | 3.8 |
| first filed | 8.9 | −24.5 | 26.6 | −192.8 |
| first filed | 48.3 | +21.5 | 61.4 | 12.4 |
| first filed | 6.3 | −73.5 | 44.4 | −190.7 |
| first filed | 24.6 | +151.0 | 61.2 | −80.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −12.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −29.5 | −12.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +12.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −23.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 8.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −31.2 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 37.8 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 14 May 2026; non-current long-term debt plus current maturities plus short-term borrowings | 1.2 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 14 May 2026 | 53.2 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +117.9% on a year | 6.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 31 March 2026 | 1.9 |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 18.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 708 |
| Market value ($M) | 152 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 99.3 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −20.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.4 days of average trading to cover, +6.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $113K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $939K |
The thesis
AIRO Group Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its third-quarter 2026 report on 12 November 2026 beat revenue estimates and lifted drone backlog to about $200 million, but management moved full-year growth to the low end of its range and cash fell to $37.8 million. The fourth-quarter and full-year report, expected around 31 March 2027, settles whether that backlog turns into recognised sales and whether cash stabilises.
The shares closed at $5.58 on 12 November 2026, after $5.46 the session before. That is 60.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $13.94 set on 12 November 2025, and the three-month change is –41.7%. The price already reflects slower order conversion and a thinner cash balance: the shares closed at $9.57 on 14 August 2026, before the cash decline and the guidance shift.
Bullish and bearish views on AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO), in brief: third-quarter revenue beat estimates. The bear case: full-year growth moved to the low end.
Bull case
- Third-quarter revenue beat estimates. AIRO reported sales of $17.51 million against a $14.851 million estimate, up from $6.3 million a year earlier, per the company's 12 November 2026 release and Benzinga. Loss per share was $0.38 against an estimated loss of $0.41.
- Gross margin widened. Gross margin was 57% in the third quarter of 2026 versus 44% a year earlier, per the release. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, as adjusted by the company) was a loss of $7.5 million versus a loss of $8.0 million a year earlier.
- Backlog is larger and now includes the US. The company put drone backlog at about $200 million on 5 November 2026, with US opportunities included for the first time, and the total opportunity pipeline at about $1.5 billion, per the release. Backlog was about $163 million at 30 June 2026 without US orders.
- A first order value has been disclosed. AIRO's subsidiary Jaunt signed a letter of intent for 10 JC250 cargo drones valued at $15 million to $20 million with a Canadian logistics partner, per company news of 9 November 2026. A letter of intent is not a firm order.
- Access wins keep arriving. AIRO announced its first US sale of RQ-35 and RQ-70 unmanned aircraft systems on 2 November 2026 and a NATO Support and Procurement Agency framework for the RQ-35 Heidrun on 28 October 2026, per company news and ASDNews.
Bear case
- Full-year growth moved to the low end. The company kept 2026 revenue growth guidance at 15% to 25% but said results will land at the low end, per the 12 November 2026 release. Benzinga put the guided sales range at $104.543 million to $113.634 million. Management cited some 2026 orders shifting into 2027 as customers move to longer procurement cycles, per Investing.com's call summary.
- Cash fell to $37.8 million. The release gave cash of $37.8 million and debt of $1.2 million at 30 September 2026. The Q2 release had cited a preliminary $56 million at 31 July 2026. The call summary said cash included collection of nearly $30 million of receivables, offset by about $5.5 million of credit-line repayment.
- Losses widened. Third-quarter net loss was $12.0 million versus $8.0 million a year earlier, per the release. Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 remains guided to a loss in the mid- to high-teens of millions of dollars. Operating activities used $48.7 million of cash in the six months to 30 June 2026, per the second-quarter Form 10-Q.
- Most orders still lack disclosed values. The US sale of 2 November 2026, the NATO framework of 28 October 2026 and the Canadian pre-qualification of 15 October 2026 carried no disclosed value.
- Nord Drone remains unresolved in company news. The second-quarter Form 10-Q said the agreement ends if it has not closed by 30 September 2026, unless revised. Company news through 12 November 2026 shows no closing, amendment or termination.
- Insiders sold into weakness. SEC Form 4 filings show the chief financial officer and the president and chief operating officer each sold shares on 14 August 2026 at an average of $9.72, and again on 2 September 2026 at $7.08 and $7.10. The 13 August 2026 officer stock grants vest over ten quarterly instalments with shares sold to cover tax at each vest, per the notes below.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.58 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of closes at $6.14 and below the 200-day average at $7.76. The 52-week closing low is $4.75, set on 23 October 2026.
Closes since the low: $4.78 on 5 November 2026, $5.21 on 6 November 2026, $5.67 on 9 November 2026, $5.60 on 10 November 2026, $5.46 on 11 November 2026 and $5.58 on 12 November 2026. The shares held in a $5.21–$5.67 range through the days around the report.
The 52-week high of $13.94 dates from 12 November 2025, so it leaves the 52-week window as the year turns over. Only 31,555,917 shares were outstanding on 10 August 2026, which is why daily price ranges are wide.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Settles whether full-year growth lands at the low end of the 15% to 25% range, whether the $200 million backlog converts to sales, and whether cash holds above $37.8 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.79, just above the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A full-year 2026 sales guide raised above the $113.634 million top of the prior range would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
AIRO trades with small-cap defense and drone names and responds to US drone tariff and procurement policy. The White House proclamation of 13 August 2026 imposed tariffs on drones and components, including a 15% rate on those from the European Union, which bears on the Danish production base. Euro and Danish krone moves feed through Danish production costs, and management flagged larger foreign exchange headwinds for the second half, per the Investing.com call summary.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $17.51 million versus a $14.851 million estimate and $6.3 million a year earlier; loss per share was $0.38 versus a $0.41 estimated loss. AIRO third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Third-quarter gross margin was 57% versus 44% a year earlier; net loss was $12.0 million versus $8.0 million; adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $7.5 million versus a loss of $8.0 million. AIRO third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Drone backlog was about $200 million on 5 November 2026 with US opportunities included for the first time; the total opportunity pipeline was about $1.5 billion. AIRO third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash was $37.8 million and debt $1.2 million at 30 September 2026. AIRO third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance of 15% to 25% was reiterated with results now expected at the low end; adjusted EBITDA is guided to a loss in the mid- to high-teens of millions of dollars. AIRO third-quarter 2026 results release; Investing.com call summary · as of
- Jaunt signed a letter of intent for 10 JC250 cargo drones valued at $15 million to $20 million with a Canadian logistics partner. AIRO company news · as of
- The chief financial officer sold 8,697 shares at $7.08 and the president and chief operating officer sold 7,230 shares at $7.10 in open-market sales on 2 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 September 2026 · as of
- Operating activities used $48.7 million of cash in the six months ended 30 June 2026. AIRO second-quarter 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
Sources
- About $1.5 billion in potential defense opportunities are in AIRO's pipeline · stocktitan.net
- Earnings call transcript: AIRO Q3 2026 revenue jumps 180% as stock rises premarket · investing.com
- AIRO Group Holdings Reports Q3 Revenue of $17.5 Million, Exceeding Estimates Amid Widening Net Loss of $12.0 Million · gurufocus.com
- AIRO Expands NATO Market Access Through NSPA Framework Agreement · asdnews.com ·
- AIRO Announces First U.S. Sale of RQ-35 and RQ-70 Unmanned Aircraft Systems · ariva.de
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