WEX · WEX
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $164
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $164.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 3.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $164, which would put the shares under the 200-day average and show the post-report case failing. A cut to the $21.28–$21.48 full-year adjusted EPS guide or fourth-quarter revenue under $760 million would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 780
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +12.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 63.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 30.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −291
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −54.3
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.1
All filed numbers
What WEX reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 780 | +12.8 | 63.2 | 30.6 |
| first filed | 754 | +14.2 | 61.6 | 27.0 |
| first filed | 674 | +5.8 | 58.4 | 23.5 |
| first filed | 673 | +5.7 | 57.9 | 24.7 |
| first filed | 692 | +4.0 | 60.3 | 26.5 |
| first filed | 660 | −2.1 | 58.7 | 23.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 186 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 405 | 134 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −125 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 166 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −291 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,267 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 5,321 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −54.3 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −14.3% on a year | 206 |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,152 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,966 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,020 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 7.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −4.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.5 days of average trading to cover, +4.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $50.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $214K | $54.7M |
The thesis
WEX Inc. is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, on organic growth in its fuel-card (Mobility) business and on share repurchases. Fuel prices drove much of the 28 October 2026 beat and raise, so the fourth-quarter report and first 2027 guidance, estimated for early February 2027, settle how much of the higher earnings lasts.
The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.13 per share and raised its full-year guide to $21.28–$21.48, from $19.68–$20.08 (Form 8-K, 28 October 2026). Fuel prices contributed $57.3 million of the $780.1 million in revenue and $30.5 million of adjusted net income.
The market has not paid up for the raise. The shares closed at $179.49 on 12 November 2026, 6.4% lower than three months earlier, which fits a view that investors treat the fuel-driven part of the gain as temporary. The 12 November 2026 8-K reported a material definitive agreement and the creation of a direct financial obligation (items 1.01 and 2.03, SEC EDGAR).
Bullish and bearish views on WEX Inc.
The bull case on WEX Inc. (WEX), in brief: the third quarter beat estimates. The bear case: fuel supplied much of the beat.
Bull case
- The third quarter beat estimates. Adjusted earnings of $6.13 per share compared with a $5.65 estimate, and revenue of $780.1 million compared with $746.0 million (Benzinga, 28 October 2026).
- The outlook rose above consensus. Full-year revenue guidance rose to $2.97–$2.99 billion from $2.86–$2.90 billion, and the $21.28–$21.48 earnings guide compares with a $20.14 consensus (Form 8-K and Benzinga, 28 October 2026).
- Mobility organic growth accelerated. Excluding fuel and currency, Mobility revenue grew 4.4% in the third quarter, up from 3.1% in the first half. Management raised its full-year organic range to 3%–5% from 1%–3% and assumes no demand recovery (29 October 2026 call, via MarketBeat).
- Repurchases are shrinking the share count. WEX repurchased about $200 million of shares in the third quarter and $75 million more through 26 October 2026, and leverage fell to 2.7 times from 2.9 in June (Form 8-K, 28 October 2026). Guidance excludes repurchases made after the third quarter.
- Some targets sit well above the price. BofA Securities raised its target to $230 on 2 November 2026, and UBS raised its target to $195 from $180 on 30 October 2026 (analyst headlines). The last close was $179.49 on 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- Fuel supplied much of the beat. Total revenue grew 12.8% as reported but 4.4% in Mobility excluding fuel and currency. Adjusted operating margin rose about 3.1 percentage points, and only about 0.9 of a point after removing fuel and other macro effects (29 October 2026 call, via MarketBeat).
- Guidance assumes much higher fuel. The fourth-quarter guide assumes U.S. retail fuel at $4.81 per gallon and the full-year guide $4.50 (Form 8-K, 28 October 2026). The third-quarter guide issued in July assumed $3.90 (MarketBeat, 22 July 2026).
- High diesel prices hurt freight volume. Over-the-road fleet volume fell from the prior quarter as some freight moved to rail. Mobility payment-processing transactions rose only 1.7% from a year earlier (29 October 2026 call; Form 8-K).
- Credit costs are guided higher. Credit losses were 11.7 hundredths of a percent in the third quarter, and Mobility guidance for the fourth quarter is 17 to 22. Management said charge-offs from higher fuel costs arrive about two quarters later (29 October 2026 call, via TradingKey).
- Corporate Payments slowed. Segment revenue grew 3.5%, and the full-year growth range fell to 4%–6% from 5%–7%. Management cited slower embedded-payment launches and Middle East travel disruption (29 October 2026 call).
- Executives and a director sold after the report. Director Lauren Taylor Wolfe sold 234,577 shares at an average $181.47 on 5 November to 6 November 2026. The chief technology officer sold 3,873 shares at $183.05 on 3 November 2026, and the chief digital officer sold 2,153 shares at $181.93 on 11 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). The chief financial officer's sale of 1,667 shares at $180.73 on 9 November 2026 was under a prearranged Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Price setup
The shares closed at $179.49 on 12 November 2026, 12.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $203.99 set on 24 August 2026. The close is 6.4% lower than three months earlier (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week closing low is $126.86, on 17 June 2026.
The last close sits below the 50-day average of $183.38 and above the 200-day average of $165.52. The six closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ranged from $179.49 to $182.53, a narrow band after the report.
The shares have not re-tested the August high since the raised guide. A close back above the 50-day average would show buyers returning; a drift toward the 200-day average would show the market doubting that the 2026 earnings level carries into 2027.
The next scheduled business test is the fourth-quarter report. Last year's equivalent report came on 4 February 2026 (SEC EDGAR filing list), and the company has not announced this year's date.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and first 2027 guidance; the company has not announced the date. Tests the $760–$780 million revenue and $5.67–$5.87 adjusted EPS guide, and shows how much of 2026's earnings gain survives in the 2027 outlook.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $164, which would put the shares under the 200-day average and show the post-report case failing. A cut to the $21.28–$21.48 full-year adjusted EPS guide or fourth-quarter revenue under $760 million would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Fuel prices fall and much of the 2026 earnings gain reverses. Confirmed by: U.S. retail fuel running well under the $4.81 per gallon fourth-quarter assumption, or 2027 guidance that shows lower adjusted earnings per share than the 2026 guide.
- Mobility organic growth fades after pricing actions lap. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter results or 2027 guidance that put Mobility organic growth below the 3%–5% range set for 2026.
- Fuel-related charge-offs exceed guidance. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter Mobility credit losses above the guided 17 to 22 hundredths of a percent.
- Corporate Payments stays weak because of slow embedded-payment launches and Middle East travel disruption. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter result or 2027 guide that shows segment growth below the lowered 4%–6% full-year range.
- Lower interest rates reduce Benefits custodial income. Confirmed by: a lower custodial investment revenue figure in the fourth-quarter report, against management's estimate of about $30 million of revenue per 1-point rate move.
What it trades with
Mobility revenue moves with U.S. retail fuel and diesel prices, so the shares tend to respond to oil-price swings in both directions. Freight volumes tie the business to the trucking cycle. Benefits custodial income moves with short-term interest rates; management said in October 2026 that a 1-point rate move is worth about $30 million of company revenue, roughly half in Benefits. Peers exposed to the same drivers include other fleet-card and corporate-payment processors.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- WEX reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $780.1 million, up 12.8%, and adjusted EPS of $6.13, up 33.6%. WEX third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- WEX raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.97–$2.99 billion from $2.86–$2.90 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $21.28–$21.48 from $19.68–$20.08. WEX third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Fuel prices favorably affected third-quarter Mobility revenue by $57.3 million and adjusted net income by $30.5 million. WEX third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Guidance assumes U.S. retail fuel at $4.81 per gallon for the fourth quarter and $4.50 for the full year. WEX third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Mobility organic revenue growth, excluding fuel and currency, was 4.4% in the third quarter versus 3.1% in the first half; the full-year range rose to 3%–5% from 1%–3%. Third-quarter 2026 earnings call highlights, MarketBeat · as of
- WEX repurchased about $200 million of shares in the third quarter and $75 million more through 26 October 2026; leverage was 2.7 times versus 2.9 in June. WEX third-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Director Lauren Taylor Wolfe sold 234,577 shares at an average $181.47 on 5 November to 6 November 2026; the chief digital officer sold 2,153 shares at $181.93 on 11 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- WEX closed at $179.49 on 12 November 2026, 12.0% below its 52-week intraday high of $203.99 set on 24 August 2026. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- WEX Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- MarketBeat ·
- TradingKey ·
- MarketBeat ·
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