WPP · WPP

The thesis

WPP plc's third-quarter update on 29 October 2026 passed the test set for it. Like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs fell 2.1%, narrower than the second quarter's 2.8%, and the company held its 2026 guidance, including the 12–13% headline operating margin. The next evidence is the fourth quarter, which WPP says will land at the better end of its low-to-mid single-digit decline range, and the Coca-Cola North America hand-over that starts on 1 December 2026.

Like-for-like strips out currency moves and acquisitions or disposals. Pass-through costs are third-party costs passed on to clients, so revenue less pass-through costs is the measure WPP guides on. The nine-month figure is still a 3.9% like-for-like decline, so the business is shrinking more slowly, not growing.

The New York line closed at $28.01 on 10 November 2026, 1.4% below its 52-week high of $28.40 on adjusted daily closes. The shares are up 5.8% over three months and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 64.0. The story is well known: the stabilisation story is well known, and the move since the 29 October 2026 report has been steady rather than sharp, from a $25.80 close on 28 October 2026.

The quarter delivered a narrower decline, which supports a medium rating. Q4 comparisons and the lost Coca-Cola account keep it at modestly better than even.

Bullish and bearish views on WPP PLC

The bull case on WPP PLC (WPP), in brief: decline narrowed again. The bear case: revenue still shrinking.

Bull case

• Decline narrowed again. Q3 revenue less pass-through costs fell 2.1% like-for-like (2.0% reported) to £2,411m, against 2.8% in Q2, per WPP's 29 October 2026 update. CEO Cindy Rose called it further sequential improvement in line with expectations. AJ Bell
• Largest clients improving. The top 25 clients fell 2.7% like-for-like in Q3, an improvement from 3.2% in Q2 and from 6.3% for the first half. These accounts carry the most revenue.
• Guidance held with a Q4 steer. WPP kept the 12–13% headline operating margin and £800–900m of adjusted operating cash flow before working capital (£1.00–1.10bn excluding restructuring costs). It said Q4 should sit at the better end of the low-to-mid single-digit decline for the second half. Hargreaves Lansdown
• Global Coca-Cola media retained. On 22 October 2026 Coca-Cola kept WPP Open X as global media partner except North America, Japan and South Korea. Adweek
• Sell-side targets sit above the share price. Berenberg's target is GBX 470 with a Buy rating (reiterated 29 September 2026), and Citigroup raised its target to GBX 430 on 10 August 2026 with a neutral rating. WPP shares traded at 392.50p in London on 29 October 2026. MarketBeat

Bear case

• Revenue still shrinking. Nine-month revenue less pass-through costs of £7,156m was down 4.4% reported and 3.9% like-for-like. Management's own target for a return to growth is 2027, per Ms Rose on 29 October 2026.
• Asia Pacific is weakest. Q3 like-for-like revenue less pass-through costs fell 4.3% in Asia Pacific, against 1.8% in North America, 1.7% in EMEA and 1.2% in Latin America, per AJ Bell on 29 October 2026.
• Comparisons are easy. Yahoo Finance reported that third-quarter 2025 revenue less pass-through costs fell 5.9% like-for-like, so part of the narrowing reflects a weak prior-year quarter.
• Coca-Cola North America goes to Omnicom. Digiday estimates the account at $700–800m, with phased transition from 1 December 2026. The loss weighs on 2027 revenue, when management aims to return to growth.
• CFO leaving mid-restructuring. CFO Joanne Wilson announced on 23 September 2026 that she is leaving for Diageo, on a 12-month notice period while the board searches for a successor.

Price setup

The ADR closed at $28.01 on 10 November 2026, within 1.4% of the $28.40 52-week high (adjusted daily closes). The 14-day RSI of 64.0 is below the level usually read as overheated, and the three-month gain of 5.8% is far smaller than the 30.1% reported on 28 October 2026, which means most of the rally preceded the Q3 report.

The kill line is a weekly close below $25.80, the 28 October 2026 close before the update. Below it the shares would have given back the full reaction to the report.

Crowding evidence is limited. No scheduled WPP results fall before the full-year report, the shares sit near their high, and no insider-sale or share-issuance filing is among the recent items reviewed.

Catalysts ahead

• 1 December 2026: Start of phased Coca-Cola North America media transition to Omnicom. Fixes the timing of lost North America media revenue against the retained global business, and shows how much 2027 revenue it removes.
• ~2 December 2026 (est.): FTSE UK Index Series December quarterly review announcement. The next chance for WPP to return to the FTSE 100 after the September review left it in the FTSE 250; changes would take effect around 18 December 2026.

What would change the view

A weekly close below $25.80, the 28 October 2026 close before the third-quarter update, which would erase the post-results gain. A cut to the 12–13% FY2026 margin guidance, or a fourth-quarter like-for-like decline worse than the third quarter's 2.1%, also breaks the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Easier comparisons, rather than better demand, explain the narrowing decline; Q3 2025 revenue less pass-through costs fell 5.9% like-for-like per Yahoo Finance. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 or first-quarter 2027 like-for-like decline widens from the 2.1% reported for Q3 2026.
• The Coca-Cola North America loss to Omnicom reduces 2027 revenue just as WPP targets a return to growth. Confirmed by: WPP's full-year results quantify the lost account as a drag on 2027 like-for-like growth, or another top-25 client moves work to a rival.
• Cost savings fail to protect the guided margin while revenue less pass-through costs keeps falling. Confirmed by: WPP lowers the 12–13% headline operating margin guidance, or full-year cash flow lands below £800m.
• The CFO transition disrupts delivery of the Elevate28 restructuring plan. Confirmed by: no successor is named well into the notice period that began 23 September 2026, or savings targets slip.

What it trades with

WPP trades with global advertising peers such as Omnicom and Publicis, and with ad-budget sentiment in the US and Europe. Because the NYSE line is a depositary receipt over London shares, the dollar price also moves with the pound-dollar rate. Competitor wins matter directly: Omnicom's gain of Coca-Cola North America media is WPP's loss.