WT · WisdomTree
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $25.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $25.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 6.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $25.00, just under the 52-week high of $25.91, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; fourth-quarter operating revenue clearly above the third quarter's $179.4 million would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 179
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +42.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 41.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 208
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −759
- Price to earnings (×)
- 29.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 15.2
All filed numbers
What WisdomTree reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 179 | +42.8 | 41.3 |
| first filed | 177 | +57.3 | 40.5 |
| first filed | 160 | +47.5 | 37.2 |
| first filed | 147 | +33.2 | 40.5 |
| first filed | 126 | +11.0 | 36.3 |
| first filed | 113 | +5.2 | 30.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 64.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 110 | 49.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 208 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 208 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 300 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 1,059 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −759 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 72.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 446 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,265 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,024 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 29.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 7.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.0 days of average trading to cover, +0.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $737K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2K | $4.2M |
The thesis
WisdomTree's clients keep adding money, but falling markets are cutting the assets that earn its fees, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The October asset report, released 11 November 2026, showed $1,654 million of net inflows and a $3,733 million negative market move. Total assets under management (AUM) ended October at $166,850 million, down from $168,930 million at the end of September, per the company's release. The November asset report and fourth-quarter revenue settle whether markets or flows win.
The shares closed at $21.44 on 11 November 2026, up from $19.48 on 6 November 2026 and $20.77 on 10 November 2026. That is still 17.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.91 set on 3 September 2026 and below the 50-day average of $22.43. The 200-day average is $19.19, and the three-month change is −5.4%.
The third quarter was solid. Operating revenue was $179.4 million, up 1.3% from the second quarter's $177.2 million, per the 8-K of 30 October 2026. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.32 beat a $0.30 estimate, but sales of $179.375 million narrowly missed a $179.544 million estimate, per Benzinga. Morgan Stanley cut its target to $25 from $27 on 28 October 2026 and kept Equal-Weight.
Bullish and bearish views on WisdomTree, Inc.
The bull case on WisdomTree, Inc. (WT), in brief: inflows held up in a weak month. The bear case: market moves outweigh flows.
Bull case
- Inflows held up in a weak month. October net inflows were $1,654 million, an 11.5% annualized rate. Year-to-date inflows reached $15,202 million, a 12.8% annualized rate, per the 11 November 2026 release.
- Equities showed resilience. International developed market equity took in $355 million and U.S. equity $120 million in October. The company said its equity products generated over $400 million of net inflows across U.S., international developed and emerging markets.
- Europe is gathering assets. Funds listed in Europe (UCITS exchange-traded funds) drew $450 million of net inflows in October, per the 11 November 2026 release.
- Third-quarter earnings were strong. Operating margin was 41.3% (43.1% adjusted), and diluted earnings per share were $0.32, per the 30 October 2026 8-K. Operating revenue was up 42.8% from the third quarter of 2025, helped by the Ceres and Atlantic House acquisitions.
- Tokenized funds are growing. Onchain product AUM was $1.27 billion at the end of the third quarter, against $761 million in the second quarter, per the 30 October 2026 results. The company repurchased about 0.5 million shares for $10.6 million in the quarter at an average $21.29.
Bear case
- Market moves outweigh flows. The $3,733 million negative market move in October exceeded the $1,654 million of inflows. September lost $5,918 million to markets despite $1,194 million of inflows, per the 12 October 2026 monthly release.
- Fee rate is slipping. The blended average fee rate was 35 basis points in October against 36 basis points year to date, per the 11 November 2026 release. Quarterly revenue yield fell 1 basis point to 0.42% in the third quarter.
- Emerging markets and commodities leaked. Emerging market equity lost $60 million and commodity and currency products lost $153 million in October. Fixed income supplied $1,067 million of the month's inflows.
- Debt cost is heavy. Third-quarter interest expense was $13.5 million, up 59.7% from a year earlier; nine-month interest expense was $39.4 million, up 103.1%, per the 30 October 2026 8-K.
- Insiders have sold. President and Chief Operating Officer Jarrett Lilien sold 30,000 shares at $24.56 on 9 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per SEC Form 4. Argus cut its target to $24.00 on 14 October 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $21.44 on 11 November 2026. They sit between the 200-day average of $19.19 and the 50-day average of $22.43, as of that close. The two-day rebound followed a low close of $19.01 on 5 November 2026.
The 52-week high is $25.91 (intraday, 3 September 2026), and the 52-week closing low is $10.73 on 20 November 2025. A dividend of $0.03 per share is payable on 25 November 2026 to holders of record on 11 November 2026.
October average AUM of $169.7 billion is what feeds fourth-quarter fees. Month-end AUM of $166.85 billion starts November lower than the average, so revenue depends on markets recovering. These figures exclude Ceres Partners' private assets of about $2.1 billion at 30 September 2026, which the company reports with quarterly earnings. The release cites about $173.9 billion of company-wide AUM including Ceres.
Catalysts ahead
- 25 November 2026: Payment date of the $0.03 quarterly dividend to holders of record on 11 November 2026. Routine payment; it carries no information about the revenue case.
- ~10 December 2026 (est.): November 2026 monthly AUM and flows release. Shows whether inflows continue and whether market moves, negative in September and October, turn positive.
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether fourth-quarter operating revenue holds above the third quarter's $179.4 million and whether interest expense stays near $13.5 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $25.00, just under the 52-week high of $25.91, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; fourth-quarter operating revenue clearly above the third quarter's $179.4 million would point the same way.
What it trades with
WisdomTree's revenue follows average AUM, which moves with equity and bond markets, gold and crypto prices. A broad market decline cuts fee revenue even when clients add money, as in September and October 2026. Its tokenized funds and crypto products tie a small part of the business to digital-asset sentiment; onchain AUM of $1.27 billion is under 1% of total assets. Convertible-note financing makes the shares sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- October 2026 net inflows $1,654 million (11.5% annualized); year-to-date $15,202 million (12.8% annualized); ending AUM $166,850 million versus $168,930 million at end-September; market move −$3,733 million. WisdomTree monthly metrics for October 2026 (IR release) · as of
- October flows by category: fixed income +$1,067 million, international developed equity +$355 million, U.S. equity +$120 million, emerging market equity −$60 million, commodity and currency −$153 million; UCITS ETFs +$450 million. WisdomTree monthly metrics for October 2026 (IR release) · as of
- October average total AUM $169,724 million; blended fee rate 35 basis points in October, 36 basis points year to date. WisdomTree monthly metrics for October 2026 (IR release) · as of
- Q3 2026 operating revenue $179.4 million, up 1.3% from Q2 ($177.2 million) and 42.8% from Q3 2025; operating margin 41.3% (43.1% adjusted); diluted EPS $0.32. WisdomTree Q3 2026 results (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q3 interest expense $13.5 million, up 59.7% year over year; nine-month interest expense $39.4 million, up 103.1%. WisdomTree Q3 2026 results (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Onchain product AUM $1.27 billion versus $761 million in Q2 2026. WisdomTree Q3 2026 results (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Morgan Stanley kept Equal-Weight and lowered its price target to $25 from $27. Benzinga · as of
- President and COO Jarrett Lilien sold 30,000 shares at $24.56 on 9 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 10 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- WisdomTree Reports Monthly Metrics for October 2026 · ir.wisdomtree.com ·
- WisdomTree, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- WisdomTree Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results · morningstar.com ·
- WisdomTree, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- WisdomTree reports monthly metrics for September 2026 · finviz.com
Related · shared themes
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings
Slide Insurance is earning well ahead of plan on Florida homeowners policies and paying a $1.50 special dividend after raising 2026 net…
AMP
Ameriprise Financial
Ameriprise Financial is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter earnings rose 21.7% and Huntington's…
CME
CME Group
CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: record October volume of 30 million contracts a day followed record…
FBIZ
First Business Financial Services
First Business Financial Services is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 3.80% third-quarter margin and record…