OMER · Omeros
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $21.60
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $21.60, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $21.60, over the 52-week intraday high of $21.24 set on 22 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter 2026 net product sales well above the $28.5 million reported for the second quarter would also point to the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Omeros sells YARTEMLEA (narsoplimab), a drug for transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy, to US hospitals; it earns money from product sales. Net product sales were $28.5 million in the quarter to 30 June 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 16 October 2026 the European Medicines Agency's CHMP confirmed its negative opinion on narsoplimab for TA-TMA, closing Omeros's European path; the company will end its compassionate-use program.
- What follows for the company
- Operating margin was 0.3% in the quarter to 30 June 2026 after negative 176.1% in the prior quarter; management said on 12 August 2026 that third-quarter operating expenses would run slightly above the second quarter's.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Customers are US transplant hospitals, with 73 ordering accounts at 30 June 2026. Omeros's filings and releases name no listed customer, supplier or competitor, so no ticker is linked.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed figures to 12 August 2026) the shares trade at 10.1 times earnings with a free-cash-flow yield of −5.4%; enterprise value is $1,207 million and EV/sales is not available. That holds only if net product sales keep growing past the latest quarter's $28.5 million while the operating margin stays above 0.3%.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 12 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 28.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 97.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 0.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −68.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 58.7
- Price to earnings (×)
- 10.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −5.4
All filed numbers
What Omeros reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 28.5 | — | 97.2 | 0.3 |
| first filed | 9.9 | — | 94.1 | −176.1 |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 6.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 125 | 13.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +53.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −68.7 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −68.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 132 |
| Debt ($M) | 73.3 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 58.7 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 5.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 11.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −51.3 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,266 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,207 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 10.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −5.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 12.2 days of average trading to cover, +0.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.0M |
The thesis
Omeros Corporation is more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Europe upheld its rejection of YARTEMLEA on 16 October 2026, which leaves one US product in one indication, and the third-quarter report on 16 November 2026 must show net product sales well above the second quarter's $28.5 million.
The company announced on 10 November 2026 that it will report after the market closes on 16 November 2026, with a call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. The figures are not public yet, so the call does not rest on them.
On 16 October 2026 the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency issued a negative opinion on narsoplimab for transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA), a transplant complication. It came after re-examining the committee's June 2026 rejection. In the same release Omeros said it will end its European compassionate-use program, citing growing US commercial demand.
The shares closed at $17.49 on 13 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $18.27 and 17.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $21.24 set on 22 September 2026. The 200-day average is $13.77, and the three-month price change is 0.7%. The market has already paid for a launch that works: the shares trade well above where they stood a year ago, when the 52-week closing low was $6.28 on 13 November 2025.
Bullish and bearish views on Omeros Corporation
The bull case on Omeros Corporation (OMER), in brief: second-quarter sales nearly tripled. The bear case: Europe has now said no twice.
Bull case
- Second-quarter sales nearly tripled. Omeros reported second-quarter 2026 net product sales of $28.5 million on 12 August 2026, up from $9.9 million in the first quarter. Gross revenue was $32.2 million against $11.1 million.
- Margins turned positive. The filed operating margin was 0.3% in the quarter to 30 June 2026, on a 97.2% gross margin, after negative 176.1% in the quarter to 31 March 2026. The 10-Q filed 12 August 2026 shows pre-tax income of $6.7 million for the second quarter.
- Billing was simpler for all of the third quarter. Omeros said a permanent billing code (a Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System J-code) for YARTEMLEA took effect on 1 July 2026. The quarter ended 30 September 2026 is the first full quarter under it.
- Medicare pays extra from October. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services granted YARTEMLEA New Technology Add-on Payment status effective 1 October 2026. Omeros said on 3 August 2026 that it is worth up to $287,079 per eligible Medicare inpatient case.
- Analyst model excludes Europe. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $22 price target on 14 October 2026, as reported by Benzinga. Cantor's target is 25.8% above nothing the filings guarantee; it rests on US sales alone.
Bear case
- Europe has now said no twice. The CHMP adopted its first negative opinion in June 2026 and confirmed it on 16 October 2026. The company has no European marketing authorization and is ending compassionate use.
- Two launch quarters are thin evidence. Only the first and second quarters of 2026 show YARTEMLEA sales, and the first-quarter base was small. Omeros gives no revenue guidance, and management said on the 12 August 2026 call that it had limited experience with prescribing trends.
- Earnings are flattered by non-cash gains. Net income was $13 million in the quarter to 30 June 2026 and $125 million over the four quarters to that date, while operating cash flow was negative $69 million over the same four quarters. The 10.1 price-to-earnings figure rests on fair-value changes in the 2029 convertible notes, not on cash earned.
- The balance sheet is thin and the share count is rising. At 30 June 2026 cash and short-term investments were $132 million against $73 million of debt, and equity was negative $51 million. The diluted share count was 53.0% higher than a year earlier.
- Insiders have been selling. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by officers and directors after option exercises between 13 August 2026 and 23 September 2026, at prices from $16.95 to $20.95. The latest itemised filing, on 24 September 2026, reported a 20,000-share sale at $20.95 by the chief accounting officer under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Price setup
The last completed close was $17.49 on 13 November 2026. Since 6 November 2026 the closes have ranged from $16.92 on 6 November 2026 to $18.15 on 11 November 2026, with $17.55 on 9 November 2026, $17.30 on 10 November 2026 and $17.99 on 12 November 2026.
The 50-day average of $18.27 sits above the last close, so the shares have spent the recent weeks around that line. The 200-day average of $13.77 is well below. The 52-week intraday high of $21.24 on 22 September 2026 is the level the shares would need to clear to show a fresh advance.
Across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day, the spread of 63-session returns (one standard deviation) was 27% in 2026. A move of that size in either direction around the report would be an ordinary outcome for a stock like this one.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: Omeros third-quarter 2026 financial results after the market close, with a call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, announced by the company on 10 November 2026. Shows whether YARTEMLEA net product sales grew past the second quarter's $28.5 million in the first full quarter under the permanent J-code. After Europe's rejection, this figure decides the case.
What would change the view
A daily close above $21.60, over the 52-week intraday high of $21.24 set on 22 September 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter 2026 net product sales well above the $28.5 million reported for the second quarter would also point to the shares leading.
What it trades with
Omeros trades on its own launch data and regulatory news. The 16 October 2026 fall followed the CHMP announcement, which Benzinga reported as a premarket decline, and the 22 September 2026 high came on the day of Cantor's upgrade. Broad market direction matters less than these company events.
No listed peer is named in the company's filings or releases as sharing its single-product, single-indication profile, so no peer comparison is drawn.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- The CHMP issued a negative opinion on narsoplimab for TA-TMA after re-examining its June 2026 opinion; Omeros said it will end the European compassionate-use program, citing growing US commercial demand. Omeros press release via Business Wire, 16 October 2026 · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 net product sales were $28.5 million, up from $9.9 million in the first quarter; gross revenue was $32.2 million against $11.1 million. Omeros second-quarter 2026 results release, 12 August 2026 · as of
- Operating margin was 0.3% in the quarter to 30 June 2026 and negative 176.1% in the quarter to 31 March 2026; gross margin was 97.2% in the latest quarter. Omeros 10-Q for the period ended 30 June 2026, filed 12 August 2026 · as of
- Cash and short-term investments were $132 million, debt $73 million and equity negative $51 million; free cash flow over four quarters was negative $69 million. Omeros 10-Q for the period ended 30 June 2026, filed 12 August 2026 · as of
- YARTEMLEA had 73 unique ordering accounts at quarter end. Omeros second-quarter 2026 earnings call, 12 August 2026 · as of
- CMS granted YARTEMLEA New Technology Add-on Payment status effective 1 October 2026, worth up to $287,079 per eligible Medicare inpatient case. Omeros press release, 3 August 2026 · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $22 price target on Omeros. Cantor Fitzgerald rating action reported by Benzinga, 14 October 2026 · as of
- VP Finance and Chief Accounting Officer David Borges sold 20,000 shares at $20.95 on 22 September to 23 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan after exercising options. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Finviz
- Omeros Q2 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·