NOG · Northern Oil and Gas
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $28.48
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
11.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $28.48, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $28.48, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (26 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would 2027 production guidance above the 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day top of the 2026 range.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 346
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −37.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 58.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −22.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,590
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.1
All filed numbers
What Northern Oil and Gas reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 346 | −37.9 | 58.5 | −22.2 |
| first filed | 745 | +5.4 | 82.9 | 47.3 |
| first filed | 5.0 | −99.2 | −2480.0 | −13022.1 |
| first filed | 610 | +18.5 | 80.4 | −5.5 |
| first filed | 557 | −26.1 | 78.7 | −22.6 |
| first filed | 707 | +26.0 | 82.8 | 24.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −126 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −469 | −112 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +9.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,356 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 26.4 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 2,616 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,590 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 414 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,823 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,659 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,249 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 19.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.7 days of average trading to cover, −5.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.1M | $0 |
The thesis
Northern Oil and Gas is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company reported record third-quarter results and raised production guidance, yet the shares fell afterward because crude oil, not company results, sets their direction. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 25 February 2027, brings the first 2027 outlook and is the next company test.
The business results were strong. NOG's 5 November 2026 earnings release showed record production of 156,239 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), up 19% from a year earlier. It reported $148.6 million of free cash flow and raised 2026 production guidance to 147,000–150,000 Boe/d from 143,000–148,000. Adjusted earnings of $1.32 per share beat the $1.06 estimate, according to Benzinga.
The shares have recovered part of the post-report drop. They closed at $22.14 on 5 November 2026 and rose in each session through $24.74 on 12 November 2026, which is 3.0% higher than three months earlier on adjusted closes. That close remains 20.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $31.17 set on 27 March 2026.
The market has priced a partial rebound, not a return to the March high. Citigroup, which rates NOG Buy, cut its price target to $30 from $32 on 11 November 2026, per Benzinga, after the report.
Bullish and bearish views on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
The bull case on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG), in brief: production beat and guidance went up. The bear case: the shares trade with crude.
Bull case
- Production beat and guidance went up. Third-quarter output of 156,239 Boe/d rose 7.3% from the second quarter, per the 5 November 2026 release. Oil guidance also moved up, to 71,750–73,500 barrels per day.
- Cash generation continues. Free cash flow was positive for the 27th straight quarter at $148.6 million, up 25.0% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) reached a record $444.5 million, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- Pricing improved. The oil differential to WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude) narrowed to $2.84 per barrel from $3.03 in the second quarter. NOG cut its full-year differential guidance to $4.00–$4.50 from $5.00–$5.40.
- The dividend held and leverage is moderate. NOG declared a $0.45-per-share dividend on 3 November 2026, payable 29 January 2027. Net debt was 1.47 times annualized adjusted EBITDA at 30 September 2026, with about $1.6 billion of liquidity, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- Hedges cushion a crude decline. First-quarter 2027 oil swaps cover 12,375 barrels per day at a weighted $72.14, per the 5 November 2026 release. These swaps protect part of the cash flow if crude falls.
Bear case
- The shares trade with crude. StockStory reported on 2 November 2026 that NOG fell 6.6% as Brent crude dropped more than 4% on renewed U.S.-Iran talks in Doha. A diplomatic deal would remove more of the oil price premium.
- Hedge losses cut reported profit. NOG posted a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $111.8 million, driven by a $308.0 million non-cash derivative mark-to-market loss. It also paid $51.4 million in cash on settled hedges, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- Spending is at the top of the range. The 2026 capital budget of $850–900 million is unchanged but trending toward the high end. Lease operating expense guidance rose to $9.75–$9.85 per Boe from $9.70–$9.80, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- There is no 2027 guidance yet. The 5 November 2026 release gave no 2027 production or capital outlook. Management said only that "this quarter's records are not a ceiling."
- An analyst target came down after the report. Citigroup lowered its target to $30 from $32 on 11 November 2026, per Benzinga.
Price setup
The shares closed at $24.74 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $25.11 and above the 200-day average of $23.80, both on adjusted closes as of 12 November 2026. The shares sit between the two averages after rising in each session from 6 November 2026.
The 52-week closing low was $17.37 on 6 July 2026. The 52-week intraday high was $31.17 on 27 March 2026, and the last close is 20.6% below it.
Director share awards reported on Form 4 filings dated 5 October 2026 were grants made on 30 September 2026, not open-market trades. No insider purchases or sales appear in the recent SEC filings, which also list the 10-Q filed on 6 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 December 2026: Record date for the $0.45-per-share quarterly dividend, payable 29 January 2027. Confirms the payout held after the third quarter, despite large hedge losses on reported earnings.
- ~12 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 operating update. Gives fourth-quarter capital spending and hedge estimates and shows whether full-year spending stayed inside the $850–900 million budget.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results, likely with first 2027 guidance. The first 2027 production and spending outlook tests management's statement that third-quarter records are not a ceiling.
What would change the view
A daily close above $28.48, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (26 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would 2027 production guidance above the 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day top of the 2026 range.
What it trades with
NOG moves with crude and with oil-weighted shale producers. On 2 November 2026, StockStory grouped its 6.6% drop with falls in Diamondback Energy, Chord Energy and Crescent Energy on the same crude sell-off. NOG owns non-operated working interests, so third-party operators control its drilling pace. Its hedges make its cash flow less sensitive to crude than its share price, which follows spot oil and U.S.-Iran headlines.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 production was a record 156,239 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 19% from a year earlier, including 74,837 barrels of oil per day. NOG third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $148.6 million, up 25.0% from a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was a record $444.5 million. NOG third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- NOG raised 2026 production guidance to 147,000–150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from 143,000–148,000 and kept 2026 capital spending at $850–900 million, trending to the high end. NOG third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.32 per share beat the $1.06 estimate; sales of $697.7 million beat the $601.2 million estimate. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- NOG posted a third-quarter GAAP net loss of $111.8 million on a $308.0 million non-cash derivative loss and paid $51.4 million on settled hedges. NOG third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Net debt was 1.47 times annualized adjusted EBITDA with about $1.6 billion of liquidity; the borrowing base stayed at $1.975 billion after the November redetermination. NOG third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- NOG declared a $0.45-per-share quarterly dividend payable 29 January 2027 to holders of record on 30 December 2026. NOG dividend declaration and third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Citigroup kept a Buy rating on NOG and lowered its price target to $30 from $32. Benzinga, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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