AVR · Anteris Technologies Global
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.39
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.39, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 42.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.39, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and the call wrong. Announced completion of PARADIGM enrollment ahead of the first quarter of 2027 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.5
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +21.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 75.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −5749.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −93.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 217
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 133.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −17.7
All filed numbers
What Anteris Technologies Global reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.5 | +21.0 | 75.7 | −5749.7 |
| first filed | 1.0 | +63.3 | 76.9 | −3072.1 |
| first filed | 0.5 | −11.2 | 76.9 | −4859.7 |
| first filed | 0.3 | −42.2 | 70.6 | −9343.5 |
| first filed | 0.4 | −44.2 | 71.3 | −5190.0 |
| first filed | 0.6 | −2.2 | 76.1 | −3379.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −27.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −108 | −26.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +170.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −90.9 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −93.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 217 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current maturities | 0.2 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 217 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 227 |
| Market value ($M) | 528 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 312 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 133.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −17.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, +18.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $11.7M | $69K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $40.5M | $25.2M |
The thesis
Anteris Technologies is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its DurAVR heart-valve pivotal trial is funded, but quarterly spending is rising and a $250 million stock-sale program is open. The December-quarter cash-flow report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether the burn and the share supply keep growing.
The shares closed at $5.86 on 12 November 2026, 47.0% below the 52-week high of $11.05 (intraday, 6 July 2026) and 37.7% lower than the $9.40 close of 14 August 2026. The market has already marked the stock down sharply for cash burn and possible dilution, while no pivotal-trial result exists to offset it.
The third-quarter 2026 report of 10 November 2026 showed $216.987 million of cash and equivalents at 30 September 2026 and a net operating cash outflow of $22.9 million for the quarter, against $20.8 million for the June quarter (company release). Revenue was $519,000 against $1.009 million in the June quarter. The loss of $0.28 per share was smaller than the $0.31 analyst estimate (company news, 10 November 2026). The company also filed an 8-K on 12 November 2026 covering results of operations and a 10-Q/A amendment on 10 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Anteris Technologies Global Corp.
The bull case on Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (AVR), in brief: the trial is funded. The bear case: the decline has not ended.
Bull case
- The trial is funded. The company held $216.987 million of cash and equivalents at 30 September 2026 against a $22.9 million operating outflow for the quarter (third-quarter 2026 release). Research and development expense was $21.3 million, down from $23.4 million in the June quarter.
- The trial footprint keeps widening. PARADIGM, a roughly 1,000-patient randomized comparison of DurAVR with commercial transcatheter aortic valves, enrolls in the United States, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and France. German regulatory clearance was announced on 19 October 2026.
- Early valve data were clean on the headline measures. On 2 November 2026 the company reported 30-day results for the medium-size DurAVR valve in 22 patients in the EMBARK study: a mean gradient of 6.17 millimetres of mercury and an effective orifice area of 2.64 square centimetres.
- A 10% owner bought in October. L1 Capital Pty Ltd bought 397,226 shares at an average of $7.62 on 30 September to 1 October 2026, 884,809 shares at an average of $7.58 on 2 October to 5 October 2026, and 272,695 shares at $7.18 on 6 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). Every purchase price sits above the $5.86 close of 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- The decline has not ended. The shares closed at $9.40 on 14 August 2026, $5.58 on 5 November 2026, and $5.86 on 12 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The 50-day average of closes is $7.03 and the 200-day average is $7.38, both above the last close.
- Spending is rising. Net operating cash outflow reached $22.9 million for the September quarter, above $20.8 million for the June quarter. A $23.2 million property lease commitment began on 1 September 2026 (second-quarter 2026 10-Q), and the company took occupancy of a Minnesota manufacturing site the same day.
- Revenue fell. Sales were $519,000 for the September quarter against $1.009 million for the June quarter (company news, 10 November 2026; second-quarter results). Revenue is small next to $21.3 million of research spending.
- A large stock-sale program is open. The at-the-market program announced on 22 May 2026 allows sales of up to $250 million of common stock. The company reported 97,458,474 shares outstanding at 10 August 2026, and a prospectus supplement filed 12 August 2026 registers the resale of up to 9,103,796 shares by selling stockholders (424B3).
- Results are years away. PARADIGM's one-year primary endpoint falls around 2028, with enrollment completion guided for about the first quarter of 2027.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.86 on 12 November 2026, after closes of $5.58 on 5 November 2026, $5.69 on 6 November 2026, $5.94 on 9 November 2026, $5.89 on 10 November 2026 and $6.20 on 11 November 2026. The range of the past week sits between $5.58 and $6.20 (adjusted daily closes).
The last close is below both the 50-day average of closes ($7.03) and the 200-day average ($7.38), and 47.0% below the 52-week high of $11.05. It stands well above the 52-week closing low of $3.38 set on 20 November 2025. The three-month change is negative 37.7%.
Share supply is the main overhang: the open $250 million at-the-market program and the 9,103,796 shares registered for resale. Medtronic, through Covidien, is a top shareholder and also the incumbent maker of transcatheter aortic valves.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026: Harvey Industries supply amendment term ends unless replaced. A longer-term agreement would remove a supply-continuity question around the valve tissue input.
- ~30 January 2027 (est.): December-quarter Appendix 4C cash-flow report and results. Shows whether quarterly operating outflow stays above the $22.9 million of the September quarter and whether at-the-market stock sales added shares.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Guided completion of PARADIGM enrollment (about the first quarter of 2027). Enrollment pace decides when the one-year endpoint readout around 2028 can arrive.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.39, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and the call wrong. Announced completion of PARADIGM enrollment ahead of the first quarter of 2027 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Anteris is a single-product, clinical-stage medical-device company. Its shares respond to its own financing and trial news more than to sector moves. Medtronic, as shareholder and incumbent aortic-valve maker, is the main industry reference point. Edwards Lifesciences is the other large transcatheter valve company. Dual listing on the ASX and Nasdaq means Australian-session news can move the shares before the US open.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash and equivalents were $216.987 million at 30 September 2026; net operating cash outflow was $22.9 million for the September quarter and research and development expense was $21.3 million. Anteris third-quarter 2026 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 loss per share was $0.28 against a $0.31 loss estimate; sales were $519,000. Company news headline, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Net operating cash outflow was $20.8 million for the June 2026 quarter, against $23.4 million of research and development expense. Anteris second-quarter 2026 results release, 11 August 2026 · as of
- 30-day EMBARK results for the medium-size DurAVR valve in 22 patients showed a 6.17 millimetre-of-mercury mean gradient and a 2.64 square centimetre effective orifice area. Company news, 2 November 2026 · as of
- 97,458,474 common shares were outstanding at 10 August 2026; the prospectus supplement covers resale of up to 9,103,796 shares by selling stockholders. 424B3 prospectus supplement filed 12 August 2026 · as of
- L1 Capital Pty Ltd, a 10% owner, bought 272,695 shares at $7.18 on 6 October 2026, 884,809 shares at an average of $7.58 on 2 October to 5 October 2026, and 397,226 shares at an average of $7.62 on 30 September to 1 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 1 October 2026, 6 October 2026 and 8 October 2026 · as of
- The company filed an 8-K on results of operations and financial condition on 12 November 2026 and a 10-Q/A quarterly report amendment on 10 November 2026. SEC EDGAR filings list · as of
- The shares closed at $5.86 on 12 November 2026, 37.7% lower over three months, below the 50-day average of $7.03 and the 200-day average of $7.38. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Anteris Technologies Announces Results for the Third Quarter of 2026 · globenewswire.com ·
- Anteris Technologies Q3 earnings: $22.9M cash outflow · stocktitan.net
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