FLYW · Flywire Corporation Voting
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $19.49
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 3 November 2026: Q3 2026 foreign-exchange-neutral revenue growth excluding ancillary services was 26.0% against a 16–22% outlook, and full-year growth guidance was raised to 25–27%.
Price against the kill line
14.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $19.49, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 21.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $19.49, the 2 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-earnings gain. Fourth-quarter growth at or below 14%, or a cut to the 25–27% full-year outlook, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 250
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +25.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 21.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 134
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 362
- Price to earnings (×)
- 36.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.3
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 42.2
All filed numbers
What Flywire Corporation Voting reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 250 | +25.1 | 21.1 |
| first filed | 168 | +27.2 | −1.7 |
| first filed | 188 | +41.0 | 5.7 |
| first filed | 158 | +34.0 | −0.6 |
| first filed | 200 | +27.6 | 16.1 |
| first filed | 132 | +27.2 | −6.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026 | −5.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 78.9 | 74.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 135 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 134 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 410 |
| Debt ($M) at 30 September 2025, filed 10 November 2025; long-term debt | 15.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 30 September 2025, filed 10 November 2025 | 362 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +7.7% on a year | 23.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 20.3 |
| Receivables ($M) | 48.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 909 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,887 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,525 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 42.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 36.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.4 days of average trading to cover, −6.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $19.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $3.5M | $33.0M |
The thesis
Flywire is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its third-quarter report on 3 November 2026 beat the company's own outlook and raised the 2026 range, and the fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, tests the slower 14–20% outlook that follows.
Revenue was $250.3 million, up 25.1% from $200.1 million. Foreign-exchange-neutral revenue growth excluding ancillary services was 26.0%, against the 16–22% the company guided on 4 August 2026, per the 8-K earnings release. Full-year growth on that measure is now guided to 25–27%.
The shares closed at $21.47 on 12 November 2026, down from $22.25 on 11 November 2026, when they reached an intraday 52-week high of $22.59. They sit 14.1% above the close three months earlier. The raised 2026 range is largely in the price. The fourth-quarter outlook is the part still to be tested.
Bullish and bearish views on Flywire Corporation Voting
The bull case on Flywire Corporation Voting (FLYW), in brief: the quarter beat the outlook by a wide margin. The bear case: fourth-quarter growth is guided sharply lower.
Bull case
- The quarter beat the outlook by a wide margin. Growth of 26.0% compared with a 16–22% outlook. Total payment volume rose 27.7% to $17.8 billion, per the 3 November 2026 8-K. Flywire 8-K release
- Guidance went up again. The company raised 2026 growth to 25–27% and full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 300–360 basis points, per the same release. Earnings Whispers counts it as the third raise this year.
- Profit is growing faster than revenue. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 39.2% to $79.5 million, a 32.5% margin, per the 8-K.
- Analysts keep raising targets. Morgan Stanley (Overweight) set $26 and B. Riley (Buy) $25 on 4 November 2026. Citigroup (Neutral) went to $23 on 5 November 2026, and Truist Securities (Hold) raised to $23 on 11 November 2026. Company news carries the Truist item.
- The company is buying back stock. It repurchased $30.5 million of voting and $29.0 million of non-voting common stock in the nine months to 30 September 2026, per the 8-K.
Bear case
- Fourth-quarter growth is guided sharply lower. The company guided the same measure to 14–20% for the fourth quarter, against 26.0% in the third. Earnings Whispers says about five points of the third-quarter upside came from a U.K. peak that does not repeat. Finviz / Earnings Whispers
- Reported profit was lifted by a tax item. Net income was $74.5 million against $29.6 million a year earlier and included a $22.2 million income tax benefit. The release says a benefit of that nature or size is not expected to recur.
- Visa policy is a stated assumption. Management said the fourth-quarter outlook builds in prudent assumptions for student-visa trends across the four large education markets and for business-to-business payments, per press summaries of the call.
- The shares trade just under every listed target. The $21.47 close on 12 November 2026 is below all seven post-report targets named above, and the lowest, UBS's $21.50, is almost level with it.
- Executives sold after the report. SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Financial Officer Cosmin Pitigoi sold 20,532 shares at an average $21.36 on 4 November 2026, and Chief Payments Officer Mohit Kansal sold 6,053 at $20.90. Both sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans. Chief Executive Officer Michael Massaro reported a gift of 117,000 shares on 10 November 2026, which carries no sale price.
Price setup
The last close was $21.47 on 12 November 2026. The highest close in the last six sessions was $22.35 on 10 November 2026, and the 52-week high is $22.59 intraday on 11 November 2026, 5.0% above the last close.
Two moving averages sit well below the price. The 50-day average is $18.72 and the 200-day average is $15.87, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $10.64 on 23 February 2026, so the shares have roughly doubled from that close.
The shares closed at $18.81 on 14 August 2026, the reference for the three-month change of 14.1%. The pullback on 12 November 2026 came after three closes above $22. A further move up from here meets the cluster of $22 to $26 analyst targets. The 2 November 2026 close, the last before the third-quarter report, is the level that would show the post-report gain erased.
Catalysts ahead
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results (date unconfirmed). Tests the 14–20% fourth-quarter growth outlook and the 25–27% full-year range that underpin the post-report share price.
What would change the view
A daily close below $19.49, the 2 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-earnings gain. Fourth-quarter growth at or below 14%, or a cut to the 25–27% full-year outlook, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Growth slows faster than the 14–20% fourth-quarter outlook as the U.K. peak does not repeat and student-visa rules tighten. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter foreign-exchange-neutral growth excluding ancillary services at or below 14%, or a 2027 outlook below analyst estimates.
- The post-report rally fades because the shares trade just under every analyst target raised since the report. Confirmed by: target cuts or downgrades from the firms that raised targets on 4 November 2026, 5 November 2026 and 11 November 2026.
- Reported earnings overstate profitability because the third quarter included a non-recurring tax benefit. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter net income falling sharply from the $74.5 million third-quarter level.
- Executive selling continues into strength. Confirmed by: further SEC Form 4 filings showing open-market sales by the chief financial officer or other executives above the $21.36 average of the 4 November 2026 sale.
What it trades with
Flywire's payments revenue moves with international student enrollment and visa policy in the U.S., U.K., Canada and Australia, with health care and business-to-business payments as smaller drivers. The shares have responded more to company guidance than to index moves since the 3 November 2026 report. No sector group drives the stock in the same way.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $250.3 million, up 25.1% from $200.1 million a year earlier; total payment volume was $17.8 billion, up 27.7%. Flywire third-quarter 2026 8-K earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter foreign-exchange-neutral revenue growth excluding ancillary services was 26.0%, against a 16–22% outlook given on 4 August 2026. Flywire third-quarter 2026 8-K earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $79.5 million, up 39.2%, a 32.5% margin; net income was $74.5 million including a $22.2 million income tax benefit not expected to recur. Flywire third-quarter 2026 8-K earnings release · as of
- 2026 foreign-exchange-neutral revenue growth excluding ancillary services is guided to 25–27%; fourth quarter is guided to 14–20% growth with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 330–530 basis points. Flywire third-quarter 2026 8-K earnings release · as of
- After the report Morgan Stanley (Overweight) set a $26 target, B. Riley (Buy) $25, JPMorgan (Neutral) $23, BTIG (Buy) $22 and UBS (Neutral) $21.50; Citigroup (Neutral) raised to $23 on 5 November 2026. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- Truist Securities kept a Hold rating and raised its price target to $23. Company news, Truist Securities rating item · as of
- Chief Financial Officer Cosmin Pitigoi sold 20,532 shares at an average $21.36 on 4 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan; Chief Payments Officer Mohit Kansal sold 6,053 shares at $20.90 the same day. SEC Form 4 filings, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Chief Executive Officer Michael Massaro reported a gift of 117,000 shares on 10 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filing, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources