SPIR · Spire Global
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $13.68
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
32.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $13.68, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 33.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $13.68, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above $28 million, the top of management's guide, would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 18.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +42.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 46.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −112.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −93.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −25.8
All filed numbers
What Spire Global reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 18.0 | +42.1 | 46.1 | −112.0 |
| first filed | 18.0 | −5.9 | 34.1 | −110.2 |
| first filed | 15.8 | −33.7 | 39.8 | −155.2 |
| first filed | 15.8 | −26.9 | 40.6 | −146.1 |
| first filed | 12.7 | −55.6 | 36.6 | −166.1 |
| first filed | 19.2 | −24.5 | 48.9 | −122.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −20.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −91.2 | −20.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +20.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −58.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 34.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −93.1 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 30.9 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −9.5% on a year | 44.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −21.4% on a year | 175 |
| Receivables ($M) | 3.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 127 |
| Market value ($M) | 361 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −25.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, −1.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.0M |
The thesis
Spire Global's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because two things happened in the third quarter. Cash use improved sharply, but revenue missed and the company cut the top of its 2026 range to $75 million to $80 million. The full year now depends on a fourth quarter that management guided to $23 million to $28 million, and the fourth-quarter report settles whether that ramp is real.
The report came out on 10 November 2026. Third-quarter revenue was $17.998 million, below the $20.551 million analyst estimate Benzinga cited. GAAP loss per share was $(0.52), against a $(0.34) estimate. Spire narrowed full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $75 million to $80 million from $75 million to $85 million (company 8-K, 10 November 2026). On the 10 November 2026 call, management put most of the cut down to the TMATE program slipping into 2027. It said the high end of the fourth-quarter range depends on one deal whose timing is uncertain (Investing.com summary of the call).
The market is pricing doubt about that ramp. The shares closed at $9.97 on 11 November 2026, 61.6% below the 52-week high of $25.93 set on 27 May 2026, and are down 28.5% over three months. They closed at $9.35 on 10 November 2026, before the release, so the shares rose in the first session after the report. A rise in one session does not show a trend.
Bullish and bearish views on Spire Global, Inc.
The bull case on Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR), in brief: cash use fell steeply. The bear case: revenue missed again.
Bull case
- Cash use fell steeply. Third-quarter operating cash use was $5.0 million, down from $23.4 million in the second quarter. Spire held $78.0 million of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026 and has no debt (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Continuing revenue is growing fast. Third-quarter revenue rose 42% year over year, and 77% excluding the maritime business sold in April 2025 (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Margins recovered. Non-GAAP gross margin was 49% in the third quarter, up 8 points from a year earlier. The GAAP margin was 46% (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Contracted work is large. Remaining performance obligations, meaning contracted revenue not yet recognised, stood at $175.4 million at 30 September 2026 (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- A first look at 2027 implies growth. Spire's preliminary 2027 revenue outlook is $96 million to $106 million (8-K, 10 November 2026). Benzinga cited a $100.877 million consensus. On the 10 November 2026 call, management said it expects positive adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2027.
- Funded government awards. The $33.2 million NOAA task order for radio-occultation weather data starts on 1 December 2026 and runs for two years. A separate $28 million two-year NOAA contract covers hyperspectral microwave sounding (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- The leading sell-side target is far above the price. On 11 November 2026 Stifel kept its Buy rating and cut its target to $20 from $24 (MarketBeat, Investing.com).
Bear case
- Revenue missed again. Third-quarter revenue of $17.998 million missed the $20.551 million estimate (Benzinga, 10 November 2026). It was the second straight quarter below estimates after the second-quarter miss on 12 August 2026.
- Guidance was cut at the top. The full-year 2026 range fell to $75 million to $80 million (8-K, 10 November 2026). Benzinga cited consensus at $79.918 million, near the new ceiling.
- The fourth quarter carries the year. Management's $23 million to $28 million fourth-quarter range compares with $18.0 million of revenue in the third quarter. The high end depends on a deal whose timing is uncertain (10 November 2026 call).
- Losses remain large. The third-quarter net loss was $20.3 million and adjusted EBITDA was $(8.6) million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is $(32.4) million to $(27.4) million (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Less guidance disclosure. Spire stopped guiding non-GAAP loss per share and now guides only revenue and adjusted EBITDA (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Insiders sold at higher prices. Executive Chairman Peter Platzer sold 17,954 shares at $11.02 on 1 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. The CEO, CFO, COO and CTO all sold at $14.09 on 20 August 2026 under such plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.97 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $10.38 and well below the 200-day moving average of $13.68, both measured on adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026. With the 50-day average still under the 200-day average, the downtrend that began after the 27 May 2026 high of $25.93 has not reversed.
The latest low close was $7.71 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $7.02, set on 17 December 2025. Closes of $8.65 on 6 November 2026 and $9.97 on 11 November 2026 show a rebound into and through the report. Reclaiming the 50-day average would be the first sign of a change in trend. The 3-month reference close was $13.94 on 13 August 2026, close to the 200-day average, and that zone is where the selling after the second-quarter report began.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: NOAA $33.2 million radio-occultation task order delivery period begins. The service start tests whether the award turns into fourth-quarter and 2027 revenue on schedule; any delay would weigh on the $23–28 million fourth-quarter guide.
- ~18 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, with 2027 guidance. Shows whether fourth-quarter revenue landed in the $23–28 million range, whether 2026 met the $75 million floor, and whether the $96–106 million 2027 outlook holds.
What would change the view
A daily close above $13.68, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above $28 million, the top of management's guide, would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
Spire trades with small-cap space and government-data stocks more than with weather or maritime peers. Its revenue depends on the budgets and award timing of NOAA, EUMETSAT and other agencies, so US federal funding news and contract dates move the shares more than commercial demand does. The 2026 guidance cut came from program timing (TMATE moving into 2027), so the stock's main sensitivity is to when contracts start.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $18.0 million, up 42% year over year and up 77% excluding maritime; GAAP net loss was $20.3 million. Spire Global Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter revenue of $17.998 million missed the $20.551 million estimate; loss per share of $(0.52) missed the $(0.34) estimate. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Spire narrowed full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $75 million to $80 million from $75 million to $85 million and guided adjusted EBITDA to $(32.4) million to $(27.4) million. Spire Global Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Spire issued a preliminary 2027 revenue outlook of $96 million to $106 million. Spire Global Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter operating cash use was $5.0 million versus $23.4 million in the second quarter; cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $78.0 million with no debt. Spire Global Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Non-GAAP gross margin was 49%, up 8 points year over year; remaining performance obligations were $175.4 million. Spire Global Q3 2026 results, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Stifel kept a Buy rating on Spire Global and cut its price target to $20 from $24 after the revenue miss. Investing.com and MarketBeat, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Executive Chairman Peter Platzer sold 17,954 shares at $11.02 on 1 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 5 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Spire Global, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Stifel cuts Spire Global stock price target on revenue miss · investing.com
- Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) Price Target Cut to $20.00 by Analysts at Stifel Nicolaus · marketbeat.com ·
- Spire Global Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
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