SNEX · StoneX Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $70.37
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $70.37, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 16.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $70.37, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (11 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 40,193
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +15.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 3.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 0.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 3,785
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 373
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.0
All filed numbers
What StoneX Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 40,193 | +15.4 | 3.7 | — |
| first filed | 45,761 | +24.0 | 3.4 | — |
| first filed | 39,030 | +39.7 | 3.7 | — |
| first filed | 32,723 | +5.1 | 3.7 | — |
| first filed | 34,829 | +28.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| first filed | 36,891 | +66.9 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 160 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 527 | 128 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +10.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 3,858 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 73.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,785 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,194 |
| Debt ($M) | 1,822 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 373 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,166 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,844 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,904 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,531 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 54.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.1 days of average trading to cover, −16.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $25.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $258K | $180.0M |
The thesis
StoneX Group's earnings are still growing sharply year over year, but the shares closed at $56.72 on 10 November 2026, 38.8% below the 52-week high of $92.67, because revenue fell from the prior quarter. Fiscal fourth-quarter net operating revenue against the $719.7 million reported for fiscal Q3 settles whether earnings have stabilised.
The story is well known and losing momentum: the story is well known, and the closes were $65.81 on 2 October 2026, $59.92 on 15 October 2026 and $56.72 on 10 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The 14-day relative strength index (RSI, a 0-100 gauge of recent buying versus selling) was 47.7 on 10 November 2026, up from an oversold 28.3 on 28 October 2026. The shares have stopped falling for now, but the three-month change is still −15.1%.
The company has reported no new financial results since the 5 August 2026 release. Net income of $127.9 million was up 102% year over year, yet the shares fell 12.23% the next session (StockTitan, 6 August 2026). The market is pricing the sequential decline from fiscal Q2, not the annual growth. The report is expected on 23 November 2026 or 30 November 2026; neither date is confirmed by StoneX.
Bullish and bearish views on StoneX Group Inc.
The bull case on StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX), in brief: annual growth is large. The bear case: revenue already fell sequentially.
Bull case
- Annual growth is large. StoneX's fiscal Q3 release (5 August 2026) reported net operating revenue of $719.7 million, up 47% year over year, and net income of $127.9 million, up 102%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.00, up 85%.
- Derivatives pricing improved with volume. Fiscal Q3 listed-derivatives revenue was $284.3 million, up 125%, on 97,944 thousand contracts, up 73%. Average revenue per contract was $2.61, up 23% (Q3 release, 5 August 2026).
- The commodity and payments franchise keeps widening. StoneX bought Colombian coffee trader Integra Trading S.A.S. (announced 2 October 2026) and agreed on 12 August 2026 to acquire Brazil's Banco Travelex S.A., subject to Brazilian Central Bank approval.
- A director bought in the mid-$60s. Director Dhamu R. Thamodaran bought 2,500 shares at an average $64.4824, reported in SEC Form 4 filings on 10 August 2026. The shares closed at $56.72 on 10 November 2026, below that price.
- Buyback permission is live. The 5.0 million-share fiscal 2027 repurchase authorization became effective 1 October 2026, per the 8-K filed 26 August 2026. Repurchases will appear in the 10-K and the first-quarter 10-Q.
Bear case
- Revenue already fell sequentially. Fiscal Q3 net operating revenue was down 13% from Q2's $829.1 million, and net income fell 27% from $174.3 million. Return on equity dropped from 26.5% to 18.4% (Q3 release and call materials, 5 August 2026 and 6 August 2026).
- The shares reacted badly to the print. They fell 12.23% on 6 August 2026, the session after the Q3 release (StockTitan, 6 August 2026).
- Rebounds have The $56.72 close of 10 November 2026 is below the $59.92 close of 15 October 2026 and the $64.85 close of 11 August 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
- Retail revenue is shrinking. Self-Directed operating revenue fell 13% year over year to $96.3 million in fiscal Q3 (5 August 2026 release).
- Insider selling preceded the drawdown. Officer Diego Rotsztain sold 20,630 shares at an average $74.4007 on 24 July 2026, and director John Moore Fowler sold 1,575 shares at $75.41 on 5 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Analyst support softened. Jefferies cut its rating from Buy to Hold on 20 July 2026 (Fintel, Benzinga). Aggregator target pages mix pre-split and post-split figures, so no consensus target is cited here.
Price setup
The last completed close was $56.72 on 10 November 2026. That is 38.8% below the 52-week high of $92.67 and 15.1% below the close three months earlier. The close of $56.04 on 28 October 2026 is the recent low among the closes cited here.
RSI(14) of 47.7 sits near the middle of its range, so the oversold reading of 28.3 on 28 October 2026 has cleared without a sustained rebound. The shares sit below the prior closes of $59.92 (15 October 2026) and $64.85 (11 August 2026), which mark the levels a recovery would have to reclaim.
Crowding is low on the observable evidence. Insider selling came before the decline (24 July 2026 and 5 August 2026), and the only reported insider purchase was in August. The earnings date is within about three weeks. No share issuance is reported. Company news since 29 October 2026 consists of research-arm items such as StoneX Financial acting as co-placement agent for an Aptera Motors offering (10 November 2026); none changes StoneX's own financials.
Catalysts ahead
- ~23 November 2026 (est.): Fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2026 results; StoneX has not confirmed the date (aggregators list 23 November 2026 or 30 November 2026; prior year 24 November 2025). Net operating revenue against the $719.7M Q3 level decides whether the 13% sequential decline has stopped.
- rolling (2 business days post-trade): SEC Form 4 insider filings. Shows whether insiders buy below the August purchase price of $64.4824 or stay absent.
- ~12 August 2027 (est.): Outside date for the Banco Travelex S.A. acquisition. Brazilian Central Bank approval or lapse is a checkable outcome for the payments build-out.
What would change the view
A daily close above $70.37, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (11 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
StoneX trades with brokerage and market-making peers and with commodity and foreign-exchange volatility, since volumes and spreads drive its listed-derivatives and physical-trading revenue. Digital assets are a negligible revenue share, even though screeners group the company with crypto-exchange names.
The 31 July 2025 R.J. O'Brien acquisition flatters year-over-year comparisons until it fully laps in fiscal 2027. Screener revenue consensus is set against net operating revenue, not the reported operating revenue line ($661.8 million consensus versus $1,468.0 million actual in Q3 FY26), so beat and miss headlines conflict.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fiscal Q3 2026 net operating revenue $719.7M (+47% YoY), net income $127.9M (+102%), diluted EPS $1.00 (+85%); down 13% and 27% respectively from fiscal Q2. StoneX Q3 FY2026 results release · as of
- Q3 FY26 listed derivatives revenue $284.3M (+125%), 97,944K contracts (+73%), average rate per contract $2.61 (+23%). StoneX Q3 FY2026 results release · as of
- Self-Directed operating revenue fell 13% year over year to $96.3M in fiscal Q3. StoneX Q3 FY2026 results release · as of
- Director Dhamu R. Thamodaran bought 2,500 shares at an average $64.4824; officer Diego Rotsztain sold 20,630 shares at an average $74.4007 on 24 July 2026. SEC Form 4 filings via StockTitan · as of
- Jefferies downgraded StoneX from Buy to Hold. Fintel / Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- StoneX acquired Integra Trading S.A.S., a Colombian coffee trader and processor; terms not disclosed. GlobeNewswire StoneX release · as of
- Shares closed at $56.72, 38.8% below the $92.67 52-week high, with a three-month change of −15.1% and RSI(14) of 47.7. Split/dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources