SNDR · Schneider National
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $36.30
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $36.30, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 19.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $36.30, which would put the shares well above both moving averages and show them leading the S&P 500. A full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook raised above the current $1.00–$1.10 range would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,585
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +9.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 258
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −30.0
- Price to earnings (×)
- 36.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.9
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 25.6
All filed numbers
What Schneider National reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,585 | +9.2 | 3.9 |
| first filed | 1,569 | +10.4 | 4.6 |
| first filed | 1,399 | −0.2 | 2.4 |
| first filed | 1,400 | +4.5 | 2.6 |
| first filed | 1,452 | +10.4 | 2.4 |
| first filed | 1,421 | +7.9 | 3.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 65.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 142 | 49.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 589 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 331 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 258 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 360 |
| Debt ($M) | 390 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −30.0 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −18.2% on a year | 233 |
| Receivables ($M) | 734 |
| Inventory ($M) | 44.3 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,097 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,173 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,203 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 25.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 36.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, +5.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.4M |
The thesis
Schneider National's earnings are improving, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They closed at $28.95 on 12 November 2026, down 19.6% over three months and below both the 50-day average of $31.44 and the 200-day average of $31.75, even after the company raised its full-year outlook on 29 October 2026. The October freight reports, the American Trucking Associations tonnage index due about 24 November 2026, and the fourth-quarter report decide whether the earnings gains reach the share price.
Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.29 against $0.12 a year earlier. The Truckload operating ratio, which is operating expenses as a share of revenue, improved to 93.0% from 96.8% (Schneider's 8-K, 29 October 2026). Brokers have since cut targets: Wells Fargo to $31 on 30 October 2026, Evercore ISI to $30 on 3 November 2026 and Susquehanna to $34 on 6 November 2026.
The shares have recovered slightly from the $27.81 close of 6 November 2026 and have closed between $28.92 and $29.17 in each of the last four sessions. That is a small rebound in a stock that traded at $36.10 on 14 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Schneider National, Inc.
The bull case on Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR), in brief: Truckload margins are well above last year. The bear case: brokers keep cutting targets.
Bull case
- Truckload margins are well above last year. Schneider reported a 93.0% Truckload operating ratio for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, versus 96.8% a year earlier (8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Management raised the earnings range. On 29 October 2026 the full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook moved to $1.00–$1.10 from $0.90–$1.10. Net capital spending guidance is $325–$350 million, down from $350–$400 million set after the second quarter.
- Profit grew faster than revenue. Third-quarter net income was $49.5 million against $19.4 million, on revenue up 9% to $1,585.3 million (8-K, 29 October 2026).
- Intermodal margins improved. The Intermodal operating ratio was 92.1% versus 94.0% a year earlier. On 29 October 2026 Schneider and Norfolk Southern announced that Schneider is moving its primary Eastern rail provider to Norfolk Southern; terms were not disclosed.
- Contract rates were rising into the quarter. Cass Information Systems reported that its September Truckload Linehaul Index rose 10.1% from a year earlier to 154.8, and shipments rose 1.9% (FreightWaves, 13 October 2026).
Bear case
- Brokers keep cutting targets. Wells Fargo (Equal-Weight) cut to $31 on 30 October 2026. Evercore ISI (In-Line) cut to $30 on 3 November 2026. Susquehanna (Neutral) cut to $34 on 6 November 2026. The Evercore target sits above the $28.95 close of 12 November 2026 by only a small margin.
- The shares fell after a raised outlook. The low end of the 2026 earnings range rose by $0.10 on 29 October 2026, and the stock still closed at $27.81 on 6 November 2026 (quoted close).
- Truckload margin slipped from the second quarter. The Truckload operating ratio was 93.0% in the third quarter versus 91.8% in the second quarter (Schneider quarterly releases), so the year-over-year gain did not extend sequentially.
- Logistics earned nothing. The Logistics operating ratio was 100.0% versus 98.1% a year earlier, and income from operations fell to $0 from $6.4 million. Schneider cited higher insurance expense tied to a specific prior-year claim.
- Fuel inflates revenue. Fuel surcharge revenue rose to $240.2 million from $152.7 million, while fuel and fuel taxes expense rose to $165.0 million from $111.5 million (8-K, 29 October 2026). Part of the 9% revenue gain reflects fuel prices.
- Intermodal demand may be cooling. Panabee's summary of the report said Intermodal orders fell from a year earlier, ending nine straight quarters of growth. Schneider's release excerpt did not give order counts.
- Management flagged open variables. The chief financial officer said peak-season demand and driver capacity "remain important variables as we close the year" (29 October 2026 release). The American Trucking Associations' tonnage index fell 1.6% from a year earlier in August (22 September 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $28.95 on 12 November 2026. That is 26.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $39.27 set on 9 June 2026, and 40% above the 52-week closing low of $20.62 on 20 November 2025.
The 50-day average of $31.44 and the 200-day average of $31.75 (adjusted closes, as of 12 November 2026) both sit above the last close. The shares have not closed above either since the post-earnings decline began. The three-month reference close was $36.10 on 14 August 2026.
Insider filings show no open-market selling. Director James R. Giertz received a 14-share grant at $31.50 on 9 October 2026, and director and 10% owner Paul J. Schneider gifted 3,000 shares on 18 September 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). The company filed its quarterly report (10-Q) on 30 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): American Trucking Associations October truck tonnage index. Shows whether freight volumes are recovering after the August reading of 112.7, down 1.6% from a year earlier.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~13 November 2026 (est.): Cass Freight Index for October 2026. Shows whether September's 1.9% shipment gain and 10.1% linehaul-rate gain carried into the fourth quarter; Cass's September report had projected October shipments up about 4%. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $36.30, which would put the shares well above both moving averages and show them leading the S&P 500. A full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook raised above the current $1.00–$1.10 range would point the same way.
What it trades with
Schneider moves with other US truckload and intermodal carriers and with the monthly Cass shipment and linehaul reports. Norfolk Southern matters for its Intermodal cost base now that the Eastern rail relationship is moving. Diesel prices move headline revenue and the timing of fuel recovery, so fuel swings can shift reported results independent of volume. Industrial-cycle readings, including the American Trucking Associations' tonnage index, tend to move the shares with the broader freight group.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.29 versus $0.12 a year earlier; revenue was $1,585.3 million versus $1,452.4 million; net income was $49.5 million versus $19.4 million. Schneider National Q3 2026 earnings release, SEC Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Truckload operating ratio (operating expenses as a share of revenue) was 93.0% versus 96.8% a year earlier; Intermodal was 92.1% versus 94.0%; Logistics was 100.0% versus 98.1%. Schneider National Q3 2026 earnings release, SEC Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance was raised to $1.00–$1.10 from $0.90–$1.10; net capital spending guidance is $325–$350 million; the effective tax rate is about 22%. Schneider National Q3 2026 earnings release, SEC Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Fuel surcharge revenue rose to $240.2 million from $152.7 million; fuel and fuel taxes expense rose to $165.0 million from $111.5 million. Schneider National Q3 2026 earnings release, SEC Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Schneider and Norfolk Southern announced that Schneider's primary Eastern rail provider for Intermodal moves to Norfolk Southern; terms were not disclosed. Schneider National and Norfolk Southern announcement · as of
- Wells Fargo (Equal-Weight) cut its target to $31 on 30 October 2026; Evercore ISI (In-Line) cut to $30 on 3 November 2026; Susquehanna (Neutral) cut to $34 on 6 November 2026. Analyst rating notices in company news · as of
- The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 10.1% from a year earlier to 154.8 in September 2026; Cass shipments rose 1.9%. Cass Information Systems September 2026 report, via FreightWaves · as of
- Director James R. Giertz received a grant of 14 shares at $31.50 on 9 October 2026; director and 10% owner Paul J. Schneider gifted 3,000 shares on 18 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Schneider National, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Schneider National, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Schneider Earnings: Truckload Operating Income Up 121% as Logistics Margins Vanish · panabee.com
- Cass: TL linehaul rates up 10% in September, shipment counts remain positive · freightwaves.com
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