space-economy theme · 16 dossiers

Deal-arb discount narrowed to 7.5%: RKLB closed $82.83 on 2026-08-07, $15.33 inside the collar's flat band, so the package still marks $54.00 against IRDM's $49.93. Forty days post-announcement there is still no Form S-4, no FCC docket and…

Reclaim leg running straight into the binary: 2026-08-03 +8% to $63.52 on Meta's WhatsApp-over-BlueBird workshop, 2026-08-04 +10.69% to $70.31 into the launch. BlueBirds 11-13 flew 2026-08-05; the 2026-08-10 Q2 call is the test — $14.7M…

The $19.16–$19.83 shelf held eight sessions and PL gapped out of it on 8/4 to close $22.83, the highest since 7/21 — but both up days came on sector beta with no company news, on below-average volume. SpaceX's debut print beat on revenue…

Defense-backlog re-fire interrupts the mid-July rollover: the 7/20 $17B NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 qualification and 7/21 $266M suborbital award stabilized the tape after the 7/13 support break and Piper's 7/16 Neutral $83 cap. An unresolved…

Scarcity-premium narrative is dead: DXYZ closed $22.51 on 2026-07-28, below its last reported $24.56 NAV (2026-03-31), then bounced to $25.89 on 2026-08-07 as SPCX absorbed its 911.5M-share 2026-08-06 unlock. What trades now is a near-NAV…

Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the…

The June 30 NASA Moon BASE award ($148.3M Nova-C) bought exactly one green session before the stock broke: seven straight down days into 2026-07-13 for -24.5%, -36.5% on the month, $13.80 on 2026-07-18 versus a $38.55 May high. A live…

Post-SpaceX-IPO deflation broke RDW to a 2026-07-18 low near $8.51 (~67% off the 5/28 record). A relief bounce on Huntsville/Indiana facility news and $41.5M of H1 Stalker drone orders keeps running into a ~$850M dilution ceiling: the…

The mania leg broke in July — the $6.33 shelf and the $4.97 range low both went — and the 2026-08-05 Q2 print handed the name a different story: revenue $15.9M (+259% YoY) vs $9.6M consensus, plus the first positive operating income and…

Dead sentiment vehicle in the give-back phase: the Russell add faded, SPCX public since 2026-06-12 gutted the SpaceX-proxy premium, and CFO turnover (Khalili effective 2026-07-27) lands right after ~$158.5M of dilution. Round-tripped from…

The June defense-MoU / SpaceX-proxy leg broke: the $14.33 close (2026-08-07) is under the lost $15–16 Diehl base and 43.8% off the $25.48 high. What is live now is smaller and dated — NOAA's $3M HyMS extension (08-04) and a $12.40M…

The June AI-data-center re-rating has failed its retest: $62.06 on 2026-07-17 is -22% from the 2026-06-22 high of $79.82 and back under the early-June breakout base, with a $1.5B convertible overhang and a 7% selloff that ignored a BofA…

Legacy GEO operator re-rating on a funded LEO pivot: 2026-08-04 C$2.3B, 15-year Canadian Arctic Mil-Ka contract expands Lightspeed 156→225 satellites and lifts the 2032 revenue target to US$4.9B from US$3.2B. Price closed at the 52-week…

Cyclical modular-space leasing recovery with a small data-center kicker and an activist/M&A floor, but range-bound and digesting: shares drifted to ~$26 under the $31.88 high after the 2026-06-27 Russell growth-index removal. The confirmed…

Roll-up execution leg is spent: ALL.SPACE ($300M, closed 2026-07-08) and Solestial (~$67M) both closed on schedule, yet YSS made fresh lows near $17.93 — the tape is pricing Wolfpack's unrefuted claim that the Pentagon killed the SDA…