RDW · Redwire
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.92
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.92, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 42.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.92, at the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; full-year 2026 revenue above the $500 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 109
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +5.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 32.3
- Operating margin (%)
- −24.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −137
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 441
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.5
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −7.1
All filed numbers
What Redwire reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 109 | +5.4 | 32.3 | −24.1 |
| first filed | 117 | +89.6 | 27.8 | −18.9 |
| first filed | 97.0 | +57.9 | 26.6 | −71.9 |
| first filed | 109 | +56.4 | 9.6 | −75.0 |
| first filed | 103 | +50.7 | 16.3 | −40.5 |
| first filed | 61.8 | −20.9 | −30.9 | −148.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −23.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −226 | −23.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +71.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −120 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 17.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −137 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 488 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 47.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 441 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +20.9% on a year | 72.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +90.6% on a year | 502 |
| Receivables ($M) | 28.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | 99.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,609 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,934 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,493 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −7.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 19.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.7 days of average trading to cover, +6.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $10.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.2B |
The thesis
Redwire Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A record $619.7 million backlog has not yet turned into profit, and the fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around March 2027, decides whether revenue reaches the $450 million to $500 million full-year guide.
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $109.0 million, below the $125.482 million consensus Benzinga cited, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell to negative $5.3 million from negative $3.2 million in the second quarter (company results release, 4 November 2026). The shares closed at $8.03 on 12 November 2026, up from $6.19 on 5 November 2026, and 69.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $26.64 set on 28 May 2026.
New contract news arrived after the report. Redwire announced a roughly $40 million NASA award for an integrated power generation system for the agency's Moon Base effort (10 November 2026) and follow-on orders from the US Army for its Stalker drone fleet (11 November 2026). The company gave no order values for the Army follow-on orders, and neither announcement changes the third-quarter revenue or the cash burn.
Bullish and bearish views on Redwire Corporation
The bull case on Redwire Corporation (RDW), in brief: backlog keeps growing. The bear case: revenue missed estimates.
Bull case
- Backlog keeps growing. Backlog was a record $619.7 million on 4 November 2026, up nearly 75% from a year earlier. Bookings were $188.7 million and quarterly book-to-bill was 1.73 (Q3 2026 results release).
- New awards add to orders. NASA selected Redwire for a roughly $40 million power generation award on 10 November 2026, and DARPA awarded $20 million for additional SabreSat testing on 5 November 2026 (company news).
- Gross margin reached a record. Third-quarter gross margin was 32.3%, against 27.8% in the second quarter (company results releases of 4 November 2026 and 5 August 2026).
- Net loss narrowed from a year earlier. The third-quarter net loss was $23.2 million, $18.0 million smaller than a year earlier (Q3 2026 results release).
- Liquidity is large. Liquidity was $538.9 million at 30 September 2026, including $488.9 million of cash and restricted cash and $50.0 million of available borrowings (Q3 2026 results release).
- Buy-rated analysts remain. Canaccord Genuity kept Buy with a $13 target and B. Riley kept Buy with a $14 target, both on 6 November 2026 after the report. Both sit above the $8.03 close.
Bear case
- Revenue missed estimates. Third-quarter revenue of $109.0 million was below the $125.482 million consensus (Benzinga, 4 November 2026). The reaffirmed full-year guide leaves more of the year's revenue to the fourth quarter.
- Margin gains are not reaching operating results. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $5.3 million, $2.7 million worse than a year earlier, and Redwire gave no adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow guidance (Q3 2026 results release).
- Cash burn is heavy. Free cash flow was negative $66.4 million in the third quarter (Q3 2026 results release).
- Share supply has grown sharply. Shares outstanding were 250,181,098 at 30 September 2026 versus 191,915,804 at 31 December 2025, and the June at-the-market offering had $350.4 million of authorization unused at 30 June 2026.
- A director sold shares. AE Red Holdings, LLC, a director, sold 929,435 shares at $11.34 on 23 September 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 25 September 2026).
- Analysts remain cautious. Piper Sandler kept Neutral and lowered its target to $8 on 6 November 2026, just under the $8.03 close. Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on 10 November 2026.
- Headline values guarantee nothing. Redwire said the NITE-STAR vehicle, above $980 million and shared across 15 vendors, guarantees it no revenue (24 September 2026 release).
Price setup
Closes were $13.58 on 14 August 2026, $11.62 on 25 September 2026 and $6.19 on 5 November 2026, the session after the third-quarter report. They then rose to $7.21 on 6 November 2026, $8.15 on 9 November 2026, $8.13 on 10 November 2026 and $8.40 on 11 November 2026 before closing at $8.03 on 12 November 2026. The 3-month price change is negative 40.9%.
The 50-day average of closes is $9.61, above the last close, and the 200-day average sits higher still. The shares are therefore below both averages, with the 52-week closing low of $5.06 (20 November 2025) well below the current price.
Share supply and past retail attention remain part of the picture. Fugazi Research published short reports on 12 June 2026 and 29 June 2026 covering dilution and cash burn, and the June offering authorization could still be used without notice.
Catalysts ahead
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report; company date unconfirmed. Settles whether full-year revenue lands inside the $450–500 million guide and whether adjusted EBITDA turns up from negative $5.3 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.92, at the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; full-year 2026 revenue above the $500 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Redwire trades with other small space and defense-technology names. Benzinga's 10 November 2026 sector item grouped Moon contracts, earnings and the midterm elections as drivers of space stocks. Redwire's drone exposure through Edge Autonomy, which manufactures in Riga, Latvia, links it to the 13 August 2026 proclamation setting a 15% tariff on drones and components from the European Union; Redwire has published no net impact figure. Government budget timing and NASA funding decisions also affect civil space orders.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $109.0 million, up 5.4% from a year earlier; Benzinga reported the analyst consensus estimate at $125.482 million. Gross margin was a record 32.3%. Redwire Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1); Benzinga 4 November 2026 · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA was negative $5.3 million, down $2.7 million from a year earlier; net loss was $23.2 million, an $18.0 million improvement from a year earlier. Redwire Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Backlog reached a record $619.7 million, up nearly 75% from a year earlier; bookings were $188.7 million and quarterly book-to-bill was 1.73. Redwire Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Redwire reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $450–500 million and gave no adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow guidance. Redwire Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was negative $66.4 million; liquidity was $538.9 million, including $488.9 million of cash and restricted cash and $50.0 million of available borrowings. Redwire Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Redwire was selected for a roughly $40 million NASA award to provide an integrated power generation system for Moon Base efforts. Redwire company news, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Piper Sandler lowered its Redwire target to $8 and kept Neutral; Canaccord Genuity lowered its target to $13 and kept Buy; B. Riley lowered its target to $14 and kept Buy. Benzinga analyst reports, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Director AE Red Holdings, LLC sold 929,435 shares at $11.34 on 23 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 25 September 2026 · as of
Sources
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