RCKT · Rocket Pharmaceuticals
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $2.88
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $2.88, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 32.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $2.88, over the 50-day average and well above the $2.39 close of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A report that all 12 Danon pivotal patients are dosed ahead of mid-2027 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −159
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 249
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −62.0
All filed numbers
What Rocket Pharmaceuticals reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −49.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −16.2 | −49.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −159 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −159 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 279 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 30.4 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 249 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 327 |
| Market value ($M) | 257 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 7.8 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −62.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.7 days of average trading to cover, +8.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $405K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $34K | $1.0M |
The thesis
Rocket Pharmaceuticals' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The Danon disease gene therapy (RP-A501) will not report efficacy until mid-2028, and the nearest dated test is the first KRESLADI patient onboarding, which the company guides for the fourth quarter of 2026.
The third-quarter report, released 12 November 2026, brought no new clinical data. Rocket reported cash, cash equivalents and investments of $279.4 million at 30 September 2026, including the first $35 million drawn from its Hercules Capital loan, and a net loss of $49.2 million, or $0.43 per share (company 8-K). A news headline put the consensus estimate at a loss of $0.40 per share. The shares closed at $2.39 on 12 November 2026, down from $2.48 the session before, and the three-month change is −31.1%.
Bullish and bearish views on Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
The bull case on Rocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RCKT), in brief: cash lasts into 2028. The bear case: efficacy data is about two years away.
Bull case
- Cash lasts into 2028. Rocket says current cash funds planned operations into the third quarter of 2028, and further borrowing could extend that into 2029 (third-quarter release, 12 November 2026). The Hercules facility totals up to $150 million, with $35 million drawn.
- The Danon success bar is fixed with the FDA. Success needs at least seven of 12 patients with myocardial LAMP2 protein expression of Grade 1 or higher and a reduction of at least 10% in left ventricular mass index at 12 months. The first three patients treated under the modified protocol count toward the 12 (company release, 12 November 2026).
- KRESLADI is ready to launch. Rocket reported commercial readiness on 1 October 2026, with two Qualified Treatment Centers activated for patient onboarding and the outside manufacturing network in place.
- Cardiac pipeline is moving. Dosing started in the Phase 1 RP-A701 study for BAG3-associated dilated cardiomyopathy, and the European Commission granted it orphan designation on 20 October 2026.
- Spending fell in research. Research and development expense was $31.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, from $34.1 million a year earlier.
Bear case
- Efficacy data is about two years away. Rocket expects dosing completion in the Danon pivotal trial by mid-2027 and topline results in mid-2028 (12 November 2026 release). Nothing in the next three months resolves the main value question.
- The quarter missed the estimate. A news headline on 12 November 2026 reported earnings per share of −$0.43 against an estimate of −$0.40. General and administrative expense was $19.8 million, up from $18.4 million a year earlier.
- Debt ranks ahead of equity. The Hercules loan is secured by substantially all company assets and carries warrants on Rocket common stock (company release, 6 October 2026). Shares outstanding were 111,386,536 at 30 September 2026, against 109,539,424 at 30 June 2026.
- Further borrowing carries conditions. A second $35 million is available at Rocket's option in specified periods, $30 million depends on a Danon clinical milestone, and the last $50 million needs Hercules' investment committee approval.
- Insiders have kept selling. General Counsel Martin Wilson sold 53,389 shares at $2.39 on 5 November 2026, and an officer reporting as Sarbani Chaudhuri sold 4,872 shares at $2.33 on 9 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). Wilson also sold 75,364 shares at $3.40 on 11 September 2026.
- Reported profit came from a one-off. Nine-month net income of $26.4 million includes a $178.2 million gain on the sale of a priority review voucher. The third quarter itself was a loss.
Price setup
The shares closed at $2.39 on 12 November 2026. That is 56.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.45 on 10 March 2026 and 9.6% above the 52-week closing low of $2.18 on 16 October 2026.
The 50-day average is $2.74 and the 200-day average is $3.40, both as of 12 November 2026, so the shares trade below both. Closes over the last week ran from $2.38 (6 November 2026) to $2.53 (9 November 2026). The three-month reference close was $3.47 on 14 August 2026.
The shares trade on a US exchange. With about 111.4 million shares outstanding, one clinical or financing disclosure can move the whole equity.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): KRESLADI first commercial patient onboarding, guided for the fourth quarter of 2026. It would be the first revenue-generating event in company history; a slip into 2027 weakens the commercial case.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Guided second-half 2026 items: FDA discussions on the next stage of RP-A601 development. Shows whether the cardiac pipeline beyond Danon progresses on a datable path.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): Completion of dosing in the 12-patient Danon pivotal trial, guided for mid-2027. Starts the 12-month clock to the mid-2028 efficacy readout that decides the equity.
What would change the view
A daily close above $2.88, over the 50-day average and well above the $2.39 close of 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A report that all 12 Danon pivotal patients are dosed ahead of mid-2027 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Rocket trades on its own clinical and financing news more than on any index. Other gene therapy developers share its sensitivity to safety events and to FDA attitudes toward gene therapy, since the May 2025 capillary-leak death in the Danon trial drove the current protocol. Analyst price targets dated before the 12 November 2026 report are stale, so no consensus target is cited.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments of $279.4 million at quarter end, including the initial $35 million Hercules draw; runway guided into the third quarter of 2028. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- Third-quarter net loss $49.2 million, or $0.43 per share, from $50.3 million, or $0.45 per share, a year earlier; research and development $31.2 million, general and administrative $19.8 million. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- Danon pivotal dosing completion expected by mid-2027 and topline results in mid-2028; success needs at least seven of 12 patients with LAMP2 Grade 1 or higher and at least a 10% drop in left ventricular mass index at 12 months. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- KRESLADI reached commercial readiness on 1 October 2026 with two Qualified Treatment Centers activated for onboarding. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- Hercules facility of up to $150 million: $35 million at closing, $35 million at Rocket's option, $30 million on a Danon clinical milestone, $50 million subject to investment committee approval. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- Nine-month 2026 net income of $26.4 million, or $0.23 per share, includes a $178.2 million gain on sale of a priority review voucher. Rocket third-quarter 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) · as of
- General Counsel Martin Wilson sold 53,389 shares at $2.39 on 5 November 2026; Sarbani Chaudhuri sold 4,872 shares at $2.33 on 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Shares outstanding were 111,386,536 at 30 September 2026, against 109,539,424 at 30 June 2026. Rocket third-quarter and second-quarter 2026 results releases · as of
Sources
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