VOYG · Voyager Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $36.68
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $36.68, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 38.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $36.68, the level the shares last held before the post-report slide gathered pace, would show them leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would fourth-quarter gross margin at or above the mid-teens target, or a 2026 revenue guide raised above $305 million.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 88.7
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +124.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 11.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −69.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −292
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −288
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −17.7
All filed numbers
What Voyager Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 88.7 | +124.1 | 11.5 | −69.8 |
| first filed | 52.7 | +15.5 | 8.4 | −97.5 |
| first filed | 35.2 | +2.1 | −4.4 | −126.7 |
| first filed | 46.7 | +23.7 | 21.4 | −72.9 |
| first filed | 39.6 | 0.0 | 15.4 | −60.7 |
| first filed | 45.7 | +24.6 | 18.0 | −52.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −62.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −176 | −55.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −129 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 163 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −292 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 554 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 841 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −288 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +927.4% on a year | 114 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +589.3% on a year | 608 |
| Receivables ($M) | 42.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | 12.5 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 320 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,650 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,937 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −17.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 22.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.0 days of average trading to cover, +8.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $8.6M |
The thesis
Voyager Technologies is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The order book is at a record, but losses are widening and the shares still sit well below their spring high. NASA's 8 December 2026 deadline for commercial space-station proposals is the next dated test; awards are expected in spring 2027.
The third-quarter report after the close on 2 November 2026 showed revenue following the order book. Net sales were $88.7 million, up from $39.6 million a year earlier. Backlog was $742 million against $336 million at 30 June 2026, according to SpaceQ. The company raised its 2026 revenue guide to $285–305 million from $275–305 million.
The shares closed at $20.33 on 5 November 2026 and rebounded to $27.79 on 12 November 2026. That close is 47.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $52.40 set on 28 May 2026, and the three-month change is –35.3%. The rebound has not yet taken the shares back above either moving average.
A Form 4 filed on 12 November 2026 shows Matthew James Kuta, President and director, received a grant of 1,000,000 shares on 9 November 2026. It is an award, not an open-market purchase.
Bullish and bearish views on Voyager Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on Voyager Technologies, Inc. (VOYG), in brief: revenue is converting backlog. The bear case: losses are growing.
Bull case
- Revenue is converting backlog. Third-quarter sales of $88.715 million beat the $81.383 million analyst estimate (company results, 2 November 2026). Astrobotic, acquired this year, contributed $31 million of the quarter's revenue, per SpaceQ.
- Bookings and backlog are at records. Voyager booked $116 million in the quarter, against $49 million a year earlier and $113 million in the second quarter (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026).
- Margins are moving the right way. Gross margin was 11.5% in the third quarter, up from 8.5% in the second. Management guides to mid-teens in the fourth quarter (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026).
- Starlab demand is building. Voyager owns 61% of Starlab, with MDA Space as partner and equity owner. Customer reservations total about $700 million, up from about $500 million in August (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026).
- New NASA awards keep arriving. Voyager announced a five-year, $35 million NASA contract to manage the HUNCH program on 4 November 2026. On 8 November 2026 it said NASA selected it as a vendor under the CLPS 2 contract, which makes it eligible to compete for lunar mission orders through 2036. That is eligibility for orders, not a funded order.
- Analysts held Buy ratings after the report. BTIG kept Buy and lowered its target to $50 on 4 November 2026. Citigroup kept Buy and lowered its target to $41 on 10 November 2026. Jefferies kept Buy on 9 November 2026 and adjusted its target.
Bear case
- Losses are growing. The adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization was $44.9 million in the third quarter, against $37.5 million in the second. The net loss attributable to Voyager was $55.7 million, against $46.5 million (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026). Management expects adjusted EBITDA to turn positive by the end of 2027.
- Gross margin is below last year. The 11.5% third-quarter figure compares with 15.4% a year earlier (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026).
- Griffin-1 slipped. The lunar lander is now targeted no earlier than January 2027, against a late-2026 window cited earlier. The 3 December 2026 investor day was postponed to focus on the mission (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026).
- Debt is large. Cash was $553.6 million against $841 million of convertible notes (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026). Voyager priced $350.0 million of 0% convertible notes due 2032 on 23 September 2026 and filed a mixed shelf registration on 14 August 2026, so further share issuance is possible.
- Analyst targets are coming down. Citigroup's cut to $41 on 10 November 2026 and BTIG's cut to $50 on 4 November 2026 both followed the report.
- Starlab has no revenue yet. The program lost $7.5 million on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the third quarter (SpaceQ, 5 November 2026). Its value depends on a NASA selection whose timing has moved before.
Price setup
Closes were $20.33 on 5 November 2026, $23.98 on 6 November 2026, $27.90 on 9 November 2026, $29.02 on 10 November 2026, $29.58 on 11 November 2026 and $27.79 on 12 November 2026. The shares fell on 12 November 2026 after two days near $29.
The last close sits below the 50-day average of $29.33 and the 200-day average of $31.33, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $17.99, set on 19 November 2025. The 52-week intraday high is $52.40, set on 28 May 2026.
The market has priced in a partial recovery from the post-report low: the shares closed at $27.79 on 12 November 2026, 35.3% lower than the 14 August 2026 close of $42.98, with the losses and the lander delay still in the numbers.
No earnings date falls inside the next 30 days. Financing overhang comes from the 23 September 2026 convertible notes and the 14 August 2026 shelf registration.
Catalysts ahead
- 8 December 2026: Proposals due on NASA's final commercial low Earth orbit destinations request (1 p.m. Central Time). Sets the date by which Starlab's bid is submitted; awards are expected in spring 2027.
- ~31 January 2027 (est.): Griffin-1 lunar lander launch, no earlier than January 2027. The launch is the first flight test of the lander Voyager acquired with Astrobotic, and it has already slipped from late 2026.
- ~30 April 2027 (est.): NASA commercial station awards, expected in spring 2027. Decides whether Starlab is among at least two companies chosen for early development.
What would change the view
A daily close above $36.68, the level the shares last held before the post-report slide gathered pace, would show them leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would fourth-quarter gross margin at or above the mid-teens target, or a 2026 revenue guide raised above $305 million.
What it trades with
Voyager trades with other US space and defense-technology names and responds to NASA budget and procurement news. Its revenue is tied to US government spending, so contract timing and appropriations matter more than general market direction. Space-sector earnings and lunar contract announcements in early November moved the group together, according to a 10 November 2026 sector roundup.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $88.7 million, against $39.6 million a year earlier; bookings were $116 million; backlog was $742 million against $336 million at 30 June 2026. SpaceQ, Voyager Technologies Q3 2026 results · as of
- Sales of $88.715 million beat the $81.383 million estimate; 2026 revenue guidance rose to $285–305 million from $275–305 million. Company results release, 2 November 2026 · as of
- Gross margin was 11.5% against 8.5% in the second quarter and 15.4% a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA loss was $44.9 million; net loss attributable to Voyager was $55.7 million. SpaceQ, Voyager Technologies Q3 2026 results · as of
- Cash was $553.6 million against $841 million of convertible notes; Griffin-1 launch is targeted no earlier than January 2027 and the 3 December 2026 investor day was postponed. SpaceQ, Voyager Technologies Q3 2026 results · as of
- Voyager was selected as a vendor under NASA's CLPS 2 contract, making it eligible to compete for lunar mission orders through 2036. Company announcement, 8 November 2026 · as of
- Citigroup kept Buy and lowered its price target to $41; BTIG kept Buy and lowered its target to $50. Company news, 10 November 2026; Benzinga analyst ratings, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Matthew James Kuta, President and director, received a grant or award of 1,000,000 shares on 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- NASA's final commercial station request has proposals due 8 December 2026, with awards expected in spring 2027. NASA solicitation 80JSC027R0004, via GovConWire and SpaceQ · as of
Sources
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