YSS · York Space Systems
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.93
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
47.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.93, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 45.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.93, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (14 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with backlog above $592.0 million and 2026 revenue above the $400 million top of the guide would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 84.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −7.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 18.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −960.5
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 163
All filed numbers
What York Space Systems reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 84.2 | −7.3 | 18.4 | −960.5 |
| first filed | 92.5 | +10.4 | 24.0 | −44.6 |
| first filed | 116 | +9.5 | 19.0 | −94.9 |
| first filed | 90.8 | — | 22.3 | −28.3 |
| first filed | 83.8 | — | 11.4 | −25.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −808 |
| Net income ($M) | −807 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +41.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 309 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 146 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 163 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 41.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 581 |
| Receivables ($M) | 29.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | 50.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,081 |
| Market value ($M) | 784 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 621 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.7 days of average trading to cover, +8.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $25.7M | $18.4M |
The thesis
York Space Systems' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 showed backlog of $581.0 million, a $749.7 million goodwill write-down and revenue down 7% from a year earlier. The fourth-quarter report, expected in March 2027, settles whether backlog rises above the $592.0 million reported at 30 June 2026.
The company's 8-K results release shows revenue of $84.2 million against $90.8 million a year earlier, a net loss of $807.4 million and an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, adjusted) loss of $27.6 million. It tied the write-down to an inability to estimate with sufficient certainty the timing and amount of contract awards beyond 2026. Benzinga reported revenue of $84.171 million against a $95.452 million estimate and an adjusted loss per share of $(0.42) against $(0.24).
Benzinga also reported that York narrowed its 2026 sales guidance to $380–400 million from $375–405 million, against a $393.506 million estimate. The shares closed at $6.60 on 12 November 2026, before the after-market release, down from $7.24 on 11 November 2026. They are down 39.6% over three months. Seeking Alpha reported that the shares fell after the release.
Bullish and bearish views on York Space Systems Inc.
The bull case on York Space Systems Inc. (YSS), in brief: pipeline is growing. The bear case: revenue and backlog fell short.
Bull case
- Pipeline is growing. York reported an identified government pipeline of $14.9 billion on 12 November 2026, up $3 billion from 30 June 2026. Chief executive Dirk Wallinger said indefinite-delivery contracts are converting into funded task orders, per Panabee's summary of the results.
- Contribution margin improved. The 8-K shows non-GAAP contribution margin of 40% in the third quarter, up 500 basis points from 35% a year earlier, even as gross margin fell.
- A named commercial customer. The release identified Tomorrow.io as the customer behind a $187 million commercial contract for the DeepSky early-warning constellation, dated 12 November 2026.
- Leadership gap closed. The 12 November 2026 release named Brian Frantz permanent chief financial officer; he had been interim since 14 August 2026.
- Liquidity remains. Cash was about $309 million at 30 September 2026, with $150 million of undrawn revolver availability, for total liquidity of $459 million, per the 8-K. Debt was about $146 million.
- Terminal orders keep arriving. ALL.SPACE received US Navy orders for 59 more Hydra MAX 2 terminals on 9 November 2026, bringing total procurement to 108 systems valued at over $25 million.
Bear case
- Revenue and backlog fell short. Revenue of $84.171 million missed the $95.452 million Benzinga estimate. Backlog of $581.0 million is below $592.0 million at 30 June 2026 and $642.3 million at 31 March 2026, two consecutive quarterly declines.
- Management cannot see beyond 2026. The $749.7 million non-cash write-down drove the $807.4 million net loss for the quarter and a nine-month net loss of $961.6 million, per the 8-K. The stated reason is the difficulty of estimating contract awards beyond 2026.
- Gross profit is shrinking. Gross profit fell 23% to $15.5 million and gross margin fell 400 basis points to 18% from a year earlier, per the 8-K.
- Cash is being consumed. Operating cash outflow was $248.4 million over the nine months, and cash was about $309 million against $534 million at 30 June 2026. York finalised its roughly $300 million ALL.SPACE acquisition in July, per SatNews on 9 July 2026, and on 12 November 2026 announced its intent to acquire Outlook Industries, a deal not yet completed.
- Share-based pay is large. Share-based compensation was $103.5 million for the nine months, per the 8-K.
- Legal overhang persists. Securities class actions cover purchases between 29 January 2026 and 11 May 2026 and cite a Wolfpack Research short report.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.60 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $7.46 and far below the 200-day average of $20.03. The 52-week closing low is $5.51 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week high is $44.54 intraday on 22 April 2026, and the close sits 85.2% below it.
Between 5 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 the shares closed higher in five of six sessions, from $5.51 to $7.24, before the $6.60 close on 12 November 2026. The 12 November 2026 close predates the release, so it does not include the market's response to the write-down and the lower backlog. The 5 November 2026 closing low is the nearest prior low the shares would test if the post-report decline extends.
The market had already marked down the August guidance cut: the shares are down 39.6% over three months, against a 200-day average more than three times the last close. Analyst targets set before the 12 November 2026 report are stale and are not cited.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. The filing gives the backlog conversion schedule, customer concentration and litigation disclosures behind the $749.7 million write-down.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Targeted delivery of spacecraft for the Tetra 3 and 4 geostationary missions. The release targets delivery in the fourth quarter of 2026; on-time delivery supports the 2026 revenue guide of $380–400 million.
- ~18 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Backlog above $592.0 million and 2026 revenue above the $400 million top of the guide would show the call is wrong; backlog below $581.0 million would extend the decline.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.93, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (14 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with backlog above $592.0 million and 2026 revenue above the $400 million top of the guide would also show it.
What it trades with
York trades with US government space and defence contractors, and its results depend on Space Force and Space Development Agency budgets and contracting methods. Since August the shares have responded more to York's own guidance, backlog and short-report news than to sector moves. The January 2026 listing means the trading history is under ten months long, which limits year-over-year share comparisons.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $84.2 million against $90.8 million a year earlier; gross profit $15.5 million, down 23%; net loss $807.4 million; adjusted EBITDA loss $27.6 million. York Space Systems 8-K results release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Revenue of $84.171 million missed the $95.452 million estimate; adjusted loss per share was $(0.42) against $(0.24). Benzinga, 12 November 2026 · as of
- York narrowed 2026 sales guidance to $380–400 million from $375–405 million; the estimate was $393.506 million. Benzinga, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Backlog was $581.0 million at 30 September 2026, against $592.0 million at 30 June 2026 and $642.3 million at 31 March 2026. York 8-K results release 12 November 2026; second-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- York booked a non-cash goodwill impairment of $749.7 million, because it could not estimate with sufficient certainty the timing and amount of contract awards beyond 2026. York Space Systems 8-K results release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Cash was about $309 million and revolver availability $150 million at 30 September 2026; debt was about $146 million; nine-month operating cash outflow was $248.4 million. York Space Systems 8-K results release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- The identified government pipeline was $14.9 billion, up $3 billion from 30 June 2026; Brian Frantz was named permanent chief financial officer. York Space Systems 8-K results release, 12 November 2026 · as of
- ALL.SPACE received US Navy orders for 59 more Hydra MAX 2 terminals, bringing total procurement to 108 systems valued at over $25 million. Company news, 9 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- York Space Systems Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- York Space Systems Reports Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue at $84.2 Million and GAAP EPS of -$5.99, Missing Analyst Estimates · gurufocus.com
- York Space (YSS) Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Slips 7% to $84 Million · panabee.com
- York Space Systems falls as revenue misses estimates, loss widens · seekingalpha.com
- Stockhouse ·
- SatNews ·
Related · shared themes
PL
Planet Labs PBC
Planet Labs' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter guidance of $101–105 million sits under consensus…
SIDU
Sidus Space
Sidus Space is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: on 12 November 2026 its restatement widened to eight reporting periods…
ARXS
Arxis
Arxis, a defense, space and industrial component roll-up, is modestly likely to beat the S&P 500 after 29% organic growth and a raised…
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
Intuitive Machines is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months after record third-quarter revenue of $269.3…