YEXT · Yext
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $8.87
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $8.87, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 31.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $8.87, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (5 December 2025), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 1 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 111
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −1.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 75.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 15.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 53.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −60.9
- Price to earnings (×)
- 29.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.9
All filed numbers
What Yext reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 111 | −1.8 | 75.5 | 15.8 |
| first filed | 108 | −1.4 | 72.9 | 5.2 |
| first filed | 112 | −1.0 | 73.5 | 5.3 |
| first filed | 112 | −1.7 | 73.9 | 6.9 |
| first filed | 113 | +15.5 | 75.2 | 26.2 |
| first filed | 110 | +14.1 | 75.2 | 1.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 14.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 26.1 | 13.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | −21.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 55.1 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 53.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 86.8 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 148 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −60.9 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −3.4% on a year | 180 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +9.8% on a year | 488 |
| Receivables ($M) | 68.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 35.7 |
| Market value ($M) | 759 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 820 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 22.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 29.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 21.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 7.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.8 days of average trading to cover, −1.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $192K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $896K | $28.7M |
The thesis
Yext's margin recovery still depends on its AI products restarting recurring-revenue growth, and the Q3 fiscal 2027 report must show total annual recurring revenue (ARR) above the $440.8 million reported on 1 September 2026. The shares closed at $7.67 on 10 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), up from $7.33 on 28 October 2026, and Yext has published no new revenue or ARR figure since the 1 September 2026 results.
The story is well known: the product story has been public since the 1 September 2026 launches and the 30 September 2026 Envision conference, and the newest company item is the 2 November 2026 completion of the Flamel.ai acquisition, announced without a price. The shares gained 25.5% over three months and sit 13.5% below the 52-week high of $8.87. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI, a 0–100 momentum gauge) reads 66.5, so momentum is firm but below the 78.4 reading of 15 October 2026.
Total ARR at or below $440.8 million in the Q3 FY2027 report would end it on the business result.
Bullish and bearish views on Yext, Inc.
The bull case on Yext, Inc. (YEXT), in brief: profitability is already delivered. The bear case: revenue is still shrinking.
Bull case
- Profitability is already delivered. Yext reported adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $34.0 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.21 for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 (Q2 FY2027 results, 1 September 2026).
- Enterprise customers are stabilising. Enterprise ARR was $405.9 million against $399.3 million a year earlier, and enterprise net retention was 98% against 96% (same release). Management said, as reported by Pulse 2, that it expects the enterprise growth momentum to carry into the third quarter.
- The paid-media addition has closed. Yext completed the Flamel.ai acquisition on 2 November 2026, ahead of the 31 January 2027 outside date set on 30 September 2026 (Morningstar/Business Wire). Flamel.ai runs localized paid campaigns for multi-location brands across Google, Meta and ChatGPT, and the Q3 report is the first that can include it.
- Distribution partners are adding data feeds. Deliverect announced on 8 October 2026 that it will feed live menu, opening-hours and allergen data into the Yext Knowledge Graph for restaurant clients (MarTech Edge). No revenue terms were disclosed.
Bear case
- Revenue is still shrinking. Revenue was $111.1 million for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 against $113.1 million a year earlier, and the Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q attributes the decline mainly to customer attrition (filing).
- Total ARR has not grown. Total ARR was $440.8 million on 31 July 2026, unchanged sequentially, and ARR from smaller customers was $34.9 million against $45.0 million a year earlier (1 September 2026 results).
- Acquisition economics are undisclosed. Yext gave no price for Flamel.ai on 30 September 2026 or 2 November 2026, and press coverage cited by PPC Land traced a $1.2 billion figure to a summary site with no source. Until a filing states the price and contribution, acquired revenue may not be separable from organic growth.
- The shares now trade above the one dated target. B. Riley raised its target from $5 to $7 with a Neutral rating on 2 September 2026 (Benzinga), and the 10 November 2026 close of $7.67 is above it. Coverage is thin, so no broader consensus is established.
Price setup
The shares closed at $7.67 on 10 November 2026, 13.5% below the 52-week high of $8.87. The three-month gain is 25.5%, smaller than the 34.2% gain measured on 28 October 2026, so the rise has continued at a slower pace.
The RSI of 66.5 is near the level usually read as stretched (70) but has cooled from 78.4 on 15 October 2026. Crowding evidence is limited to the approaching earnings date; no insider selling or share issuance is in the filings reviewed, and the newest filing is a Schedule 13G/A dated 31 October 2026 whose holder and stake this note does not report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~22 November 2026 (est.): Expected announcement of the Q3 FY2027 results date (unconfirmed). Yext has announced prior third-quarter dates about two weeks ahead, so the notice would fix when the ARR test is decided.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): Q3 FY2027 earnings report (date unconfirmed). It is the first report that can show whether total ARR rises above $440.8 million and whether AI products and Flamel.ai add recurring revenue.
- 31 January 2027: Fiscal year end for FY2027. Later filings may disclose the Flamel.ai price and its contribution to results.
What would change the view
A daily close above $8.87, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (5 December 2025), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Yext trades as a small-cap software company in a turnaround, with its movement tied to its own ARR and margin results more than to a sector driver. Its AI search and knowledge-graph pitch gives it exposure to enterprise AI software sentiment, but it carries no current theme cluster. Fiscal year ends 31 January, and Hearsay Systems closed on 1 August 2025, so year-over-year comparisons begin lapping that acquisition from Q3 FY2027.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Total ARR was $440.8 million, unchanged sequentially; enterprise ARR was $405.9 million versus $399.3 million a year earlier. Yext Q2 FY2027 results press release · as of
- Revenue was $111.1 million for the quarter ended 31 July 2026 against $113.1 million a year earlier. Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA was $34.0 million and non-GAAP EPS $0.21 for Q2 FY2027. Yext Q2 FY2027 results press release · as of
- Yext completed the acquisition of Flamel.ai; price undisclosed. Yext release via Business Wire/Morningstar · as of
- Deliverect announced a partnership to feed live restaurant operational data into the Yext Knowledge Graph; no financial terms disclosed. Deliverect and Yext announcement via MarTech Edge · as of
- B. Riley raised its price target from $5 to $7 with a Neutral rating. Benzinga analyst ratings summary · as of
- Q3 FY2026 earnings were reported on 8 December 2025, the prior-year reference for the Q3 FY2027 timing. MarketBeat earnings listing · as of
Sources
Related · shared themes
EPAM
EPAM Systems
EPAM Systems is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 as its $1.8 billion buyback, including a $500 million UBS repurchase…
GDYN
Grid Dynamics Holdings
Grid Dynamics' AI work is lifting the IT-services firm back toward double-digit growth at margins near 20%, which favors the shares beating…
INTU
Intuit
Intuit's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 as AI agents, Credit Karma Tax and the Sequence deal target price-driven customer…
MANH
Manhattan Associates
Manhattan Associates' cloud revenue grew 28% and its backlog 25% in the 27 October 2026 report, making the shares modestly more likely than…
See also · stocks to watch