SATL · Satellogic
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $6.17
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
46.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $6.17, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 43.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $6.17, the highest close of the 63 sessions to 25 September 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would a new satellite or defense contract worth more than the $37 million sovereign deal.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 16.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +341.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 77.9
- Operating margin (%)
- −14.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −49.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 20.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 12.9
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −8.3
All filed numbers
What Satellogic reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 16.0 | +341.5 | 77.9 | −14.2 |
| first filed | 15.9 | +258.5 | 82.3 | 1.7 |
| first filed | 6.1 | +80.3 | 76.2 | −104.2 |
| first filed | 6.2 | +93.8 | 79.5 | −114.2 |
| first filed | 3.6 | +29.0 | 67.8 | −222.5 |
| first filed | 4.4 | +26.8 | 73.2 | −141.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 28.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −79.6 | 28.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +36.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −28.3 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 20.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −49.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 107 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 86.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 20.6 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −17.2% on a year | 9.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 19 March 2026 | 65.1 |
| Receivables ($M) | 12.1 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.5 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 63.4 |
| Market value ($M) | 592 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 571 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 12.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −8.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.9 days of average trading to cover, −1.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $216K | $103.9M |
The thesis
Satellogic's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company's record third quarter came from satellite sales, while recurring data revenue slipped and operating profit turned back into a loss. What settles the case is whether Merlin commissioning results and the new $37 million sovereign satellite deal give the shares a reason to recover before Merlin revenue starts, which the company expects in the second half of 2027.
On 10 November 2026 Satellogic reported third-quarter revenue of $16.0 million, up 342% from $3.6 million a year earlier, its 8-K shows. Data & Analytics, the recurring imagery business, fell to $6.6 million from $7.1 million in the second quarter. Space Systems supplied $9.5 million. The operating loss was $2.3 million, after second-quarter operating income of $0.3 million.
The price already reflects a lot of disappointment. The shares closed at $3.80 on 11 November 2026, 68.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $12.00 on 26 May 2026. They are down 35.5% over three months. The rating is Low because the report showed that profit depends on lumpy satellite deliveries, and Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target the next day.
Bullish and bearish views on Satellogic Inc.
The bull case on Satellogic Inc. (SATL), in brief: revenue set a quarterly record. The bear case: operating profit did not repeat.
Bull case
- Revenue set a quarterly record. Third-quarter revenue of $16.0 million beat the $12.759 million consensus estimate, according to a corrected Benzinga earnings headline of 10 November 2026. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding some items) was $1.2 million, the second positive quarter in a row (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- A large sovereign deal sits outside backlog. After the quarter ended, Satellogic signed a deal worth about $37 million for the in-orbit transfer of one NewSat Mark V and two Mark VI satellites, with transfers expected by mid-2027 (8-K, 10 November 2026). The $66.9 million of remaining performance obligations at 30 September 2026 does not include it.
- The cash balance covers current burn. Cash and equivalents were $106.5 million at 30 September 2026, plus $2.6 million of restricted cash (8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Merlin is in orbit and partners are signing. Merlin.01 launched on 1 October 2026 and has been in payload commissioning since mid-October (8-K, 10 November 2026). On 29 October 2026 Satellogic and HEO signed a three-year non-Earth imaging agreement through 2029, which Satellite Today reported includes a seven-figure minimum annual commitment.
Bear case
- Operating profit did not repeat. The third-quarter operating loss was $2.3 million, against $0.3 million of operating income in the second quarter (Satellogic results, 5 August 2026 and 10 November 2026). Net income of $28.3 million rested on a $30.0 million non-cash gain on financial instruments, which the company says does not reflect operating performance.
- Recurring revenue slipped. Data & Analytics revenue was $6.6 million in the third quarter, down from $7.1 million in the second (8-K, 10 November 2026). Space Systems, which depends on satellite delivery timing, produced most of the quarter's revenue.
- Cash burn continues. Operating activities used $10.4 million of cash in the quarter, and capital spending was $6.2 million (8-K, 10 November 2026). Cash fell from $112.8 million at 30 June 2026 to $106.5 million at 30 September 2026.
- The lead analyst target fell. Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Overweight rating but cut its price target to $7 from $10 on 11 November 2026.
- Merlin revenue is distant. Satellogic expects more Merlin launches in the first half of 2027 and Merlin service revenue only in the second half of 2027 (8-K, 10 November 2026). It gave no numeric guidance for the fourth quarter, 2026 or 2027.
- Dilution is a standing risk. Secured convertible notes with $18.0 million of principal were carried at $86.0 million fair value at 30 September 2026 (8-K, 10 November 2026). The company sold about $35 million of Class A shares at $4.73 in a registered direct offering that closed in January 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.80 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $4.59 and the 200-day moving average of $5.28. Both averages are as of that close. The 3-month reference close was $5.89 on 13 August 2026.
The shares rallied before the report. They closed at $2.89 on 5 November 2026, $3.48 on 6 November 2026 and $3.96 on 9 November 2026. After the results they closed at $3.90 on 10 November 2026 and $3.80 on 11 November 2026, so the report and the target cut stopped the rebound without reversing it.
Over 52 weeks the range is wide: a closing low of $1.27 on 20 November 2025 and an intraday high of $12.00 on 26 May 2026. A move back above the 200-day average would be the first sign that buying has returned. A fall under the $2.89 close of 5 November 2026 would put the shares at their lowest close of the autumn decline.
Catalysts ahead
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): Merlin.01 payload commissioning results; no date announced. Image quality and onboard processing results test the Merlin product claims behind the planned 2027 launches and the second-half 2027 revenue start.
- ~18 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results; no date announced. Shows whether Data & Analytics revenue recovers above $6.6 million and whether any revenue from the $37 million sovereign deal begins to be recognized.
What would change the view
A daily close above $6.17, the highest close of the 63 sessions to 25 September 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would a new satellite or defense contract worth more than the $37 million sovereign deal.
What it trades with
Satellogic trades with small-cap space and earth-imaging stocks and with sentiment on defense spending. Big swings around contract news show how much of its price rides on flows in this group rather than on the quarterly numbers. Planet Labs is the closest listed earth-imaging comparison, and its results are a read-through for commercial and government demand for imagery. Satellogic's own contracts with HEO, SynMax and the Office of Naval Research are small. The $37 million sovereign deal is the only recent one large enough to move a full quarter of revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $16.0 million, up 342% from $3.6 million a year earlier, with $6.6 million from Data & Analytics and $9.5 million from Space Systems. Satellogic third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit · as of
- Third-quarter operating loss was $2.3 million and adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 million; net income of $28.3 million included a $30.0 million non-cash fair-value gain. Satellogic third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit · as of
- Operating activities used $10.4 million of cash in the third quarter, capital spending was $6.2 million, and cash and equivalents were $106.5 million at 30 September 2026. Satellogic third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit · as of
- Satellogic signed a deal worth about $37 million to transfer three in-orbit satellites to a sovereign customer by mid-2027; it is excluded from $66.9 million of remaining performance obligations at 30 September 2026. Satellogic third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $15.9 million, with $7.1 million from Data & Analytics; operating income was $0.3 million and cash was $112.8 million. Satellogic second-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating on Satellogic and lowered its price target to $7 from $10. Cantor Fitzgerald rating action, reported 11 November 2026 · as of
- Merlin.01 has been in payload commissioning since mid-October 2026; Satellogic expects more Merlin launches in the first half of 2027 and Merlin revenue in the second half of 2027. Satellogic third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit · as of
- Satellogic and HEO signed a three-year non-Earth imaging agreement extending through 2029; trade press reports a seven-figure minimum annual commitment. Satellite Today, 30 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Satellogic Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Satellogic Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Satellogic Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · barchart.com
- Satellogic Secures 3-Year Agreement with HEO for Non-Earth Imaging · satellitetoday.com ·
- Barchart
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