SBET · SharpLink
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $8.25
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
32.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $8.25, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 13.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $8.25, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; The Block's net-asset-value multiple returning above 1.0 times would show the same.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 13.5
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +24.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 30.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 5596.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 47.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 22.2
All filed numbers
What SharpLink reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 13.5 | +24.1 | — | 5596.3 |
| first filed | 11.5 | +1553.9 | — | −3413.0 |
| first filed | 12.1 | +1525.1 | — | −5677.4 |
| first filed | 15.8 | +1816.2 | — | — |
| first filed restated | 10.8 | +1129.9 | — | 967.8 |
| first filed restated | 0.7 | −29.0 | 30.0 | −14839.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 754 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −1,063 | 751 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +30.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −34.2 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 47.9 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 47.9 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 9 March 2026 | 4.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,166 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,219 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,171 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 22.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.5 days of average trading to cover, −2.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $47.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $47.9M |
The thesis
SharpLink, Inc. kept its MSCI index place on 11 November 2026, which removes the near-term forced-selling risk. The shares are still more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They trade at 0.71 times the value of their Ether (ETH) on The Block's tracker, the discount has kept widening, and they move with a weak Ether price. The 30 November 2026 MSCI rebalance and SharpLink's weekly treasury updates show whether that discount stops widening.
MSCI published its November review on 11 November 2026 and deleted Strategy and Metaplanet, effective at the close of 30 November 2026, per The Block. SharpLink was not deleted. PANews reported on 12 November 2026 that it remains on MSCI's watchlist. Under the final rules The Block reported in October 2026, an existing member is removed only after it fails the screen in two consecutive annual periods. The risk is therefore deferred to the next annual screen, not removed.
The rating is Low because the index relief does not change the two forces that set the price: the Ether price and the discount the market applies to it. The Block's tracker, read on 12 November 2026, shows 868,699 ETH worth $1.78 billion against a market capitalisation of $1.27 billion, or 0.71 times net asset value. The multiple was 0.86 on 15 October 2026.
The market prices SharpLink's treasury below its liquidation value: on 12 November 2026 The Block's tracker valued the company's equity at $1.27 billion against $1.78 billion of Ether.
Bullish and bearish views on SharpLink, Inc.
The bull case on SharpLink, Inc. (SBET), in brief: MSCI deletion avoided in November. The bear case: the discount keeps widening.
Bull case
- MSCI deletion avoided in November. SharpLink was not on the deletion list MSCI published on 11 November 2026, per The Block. Strategy and Metaplanet were, so passive selling around 30 November 2026 falls on them.
- Third-quarter results beat estimates. Revenue was $13.456 million against an $11.626 million estimate, per Benzinga data published 9 November 2026. Net income was about $751 million, largely from unrealised gains on Ether, per The Block on 9 November 2026.
- The Ether count is still rising. The company reported 892,708 ETH at the end of September and 895,117 ETH as of 2 November 2026, per The Block's 9 November 2026 report on the results.
- The shares trade below asset value. At 0.71 times net asset value on The Block's tracker on 12 November 2026, any move back toward the 0.86 times of 15 October 2026 would lift the shares faster than Ether alone.
- The lead covering analyst stays positive. B. Riley kept a Buy rating on 10 November 2026 while lowering its target to $11 from $14, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- The discount keeps widening. The Block's multiple fell from 0.86 times on 15 October 2026 to 0.74 times on 10 November 2026 and 0.71 times on 12 November 2026. The market pays less each week for each dollar of Ether SharpLink holds.
- The board's largest seller sold heavily. Director Joseph Lubin sold 5,676,952 shares in the open market at $8.39 on 8 October 2026, per a Form 4 filed 13 October 2026. Other insider Form 4s since September 2026 are shares withheld for tax, not open-market trades.
- MSCI watchlist status persists. PANews reported on 12 November 2026 that SharpLink sits on MSCI's watchlist, meaning it has failed one annual screen. A second failure at the next annual screen would trigger deletion.
- Analyst targets are moving down. B. Riley cut its target to $11 from $14 on 10 November 2026, per Benzinga, the first revision after the third-quarter report.
- Earnings swing with the coin. Q2 2026 showed a net loss of $394.3 million and Q3 2026 net income of about $751 million. Neither figure tracks operating progress, so the shares trade on Ether and the discount.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.02 on 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That is 51.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $12.29 set on 10 December 2025 and above the 52-week closing low of $4.56 on 25 June 2026. The three-month change is −4.7% against the 13 August 2026 close of $6.32.
The price sits below both the 50-day average and the 200-day average of $7.08, as of 11 November 2026. The decline ran from $7.15 on 4 November 2026 to $6.42 on 5 November 2026 and $5.85 on 10 November 2026, the lowest close of that run. The MSCI decision came after the 11 November 2026 close, so the 12 November 2026 session is the first to trade on it.
A close back above the 200-day average would be the first sign that the index relief is turning into buying. A return toward the June closing low would show the discount and the Ether price still in control.
Catalysts ahead
- ~17 November 2026 (est.): SharpLink weekly treasury and staking update. Shows whether ETH holdings grew from the 895,117 reported as of 2 November 2026, and whether the company is buying back shares while the stock trades below net asset value.
- 30 November 2026: MSCI November 2026 index review takes effect at the close, deleting Strategy and Metaplanet. Passive selling of the deleted treasury companies tests sentiment toward the whole group; a stable discount at SharpLink through the date would show the index overhang has cleared.
What would change the view
A daily close above $8.25, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; The Block's net-asset-value multiple returning above 1.0 times would show the same.
What it trades with
SharpLink trades as a leveraged claim on Ether. It moves with BitMine and other Ether treasury companies and with flows into US spot Ether exchange-traded funds, which lost about $782.8 million over ten straight sessions from 29 September 2026, per Crypto Times. Its index fate is shared with other digital-asset treasury companies under MSCI's non-operating company rules; Strategy and Metaplanet leave MSCI indexes at the close of 30 November 2026. SharpLink stakes most of its Ether for yield, so how MSCI treats staking at the next annual screen bears on it more than on bitcoin treasury peers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- MSCI's November 2026 review deletes Strategy and Metaplanet effective at the close of 30 November 2026; SharpLink was not among the deletions. The Block, 'Strategy, Metaplanet lose MSCI index membership in November reshuffle', 11 November 2026 · as of
- SharpLink remains on MSCI's watchlist under the non-operating company rules after the November 2026 review. PANews, 12 November 2026 · as of
- The Block's tracker shows 868,699 ETH worth $1.78B against a market cap of $1.27B, 0.71 times net asset value, down from 0.86 times on 15 October 2026. The Block treasury tracker, theblock.co/treasuries/sbet · as of
- Q3 2026 net income was about $751M, largely unrealised ETH gains; ETH holdings were 892,708 at end-September and 895,117 as of 2 November 2026. The Block, Q3 2026 results report, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 2026 revenue of $13.456M beat the $11.626M consensus estimate. Benzinga earnings data, 9 November 2026 · as of
- B. Riley maintained a Buy rating and lowered its SharpLink price target to $11 from $14. Benzinga, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Director Joseph Lubin sold 5,676,952 SharpLink shares in the open market at $8.39 on 8 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 13 October 2026 · as of
- MSCI's final rules remove an existing index member only after it fails the non-operating screen in two consecutive annual periods. The Block, 16 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Strategy, Metaplanet lose MSCI index membership in November reshuffle · theblock.co ·
- MSCI Global Indexes to Drop Strategy, Metaplanet and Others, Place SharpLink on Watchlist · panews.io
- The Block
- Ethereum treasury Sharplink's Q3 net income hits $751 million on unrealized ether gains · theblock.co ·
- MSCI finalizes index rules that put Strategy, crypto treasury firms at risk of exclusion · theblock.co ·
- Sharplink Earnings Call Transcripts · stockanalysis.com
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