LUNR · Intuitive Machines
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $10.47
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 12 November 2026: Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $269.348 million against a $245.879 million consensus, the loss was $0.02 per share against an expected $0.12 loss, and the company narrowed 2026 revenue guidance to $920–950 million.
Price against the kill line
24.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $10.47, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are down 36.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $10.47, the 6 November 2026 close, which would erase the gain around the results and show the shares lagging again. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $258 million low end of the company's guide would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 269
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +413.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −12.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −135
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 127
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −6.0
All filed numbers
What Intuitive Machines reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 269 | +413.7 | −12.7 |
| first filed | 206 | +309.8 | −22.9 |
| first filed | 187 | +198.7 | −21.0 |
| first filed | 44.8 | −18.1 | −73.9 |
| first filed | 52.4 | −10.3 | −29.4 |
| first filed | 50.3 | +20.8 | −56.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −3.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −128 | −4.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +47.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −53.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 82.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −135 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 464 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 337 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 127 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +334.7% on a year | 295 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +738.2% on a year | 1,000 |
| Receivables ($M) | 114 |
| Inventory ($M) | 70.6 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 235 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,255 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,128 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −6.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 21.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.4 days of average trading to cover, +4.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $6.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $263.8M |
The thesis
Intuitive Machines is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its record third-quarter 2026 revenue of $269.348 million beat estimates, and its backlog reached $1.9 billion. The quarterly 10-Q, which shows how much stock was sold through the at-the-market program, is the near-term test. The fourth-quarter report, measured against the company's $258–288 million revenue guide, settles the case.
The company reported on 12 November 2026. Revenue beat the $245.879 million consensus estimate cited by Benzinga, and the loss of $0.02 per share beat the expected $0.12 loss. MarketBeat reported revenue up 31% from the previous quarter and third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $8 million. The company narrowed its 2026 revenue guidance to $920–950 million from $900 million–$1.0 billion and still expects positive full-year adjusted EBITDA.
The shares closed at $13.03 on 12 November 2026, up from $12.18 on 11 November 2026. That close was below the $13.91 premarket price Investing.com reported that morning, so the market kept only part of the early gain. The 12 November 2026 close is 72.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $46.75 set on 28 May 2026. The price still reflects doubt that the margin and cash flow of the quarter will repeat.
Bullish and bearish views on Intuitive Machines, Inc.
The bull case on Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR), in brief: revenue and loss beat estimates. The bear case: the top of the guide was cut.
Bull case
- Revenue and loss beat estimates. Third-quarter revenue of $269.348 million beat the $245.879 million estimate, and the $0.02 loss per share beat the $0.12 loss expected (Benzinga, 12 November 2026). The second-quarter loss was $0.29 per share.
- Cash flow turned positive. The company's release reported record operating cash flow of $66 million and free cash flow of $33 million. Cash and equivalents were $464 million at 30 September 2026, up from $367.4 million at 30 June 2026.
- Backlog has a conversion schedule. On the 12 November 2026 call, management said 13%–15% of the $1.9 billion backlog converts to revenue in the fourth quarter and 40%–45% in 2027, according to Investing.com. MarketBeat reported more than $450 million in new bookings in the quarter, before acquired backlog.
- NASA lunar work extends into 2027. On 9 November 2026, NASA named Intuitive Machines a vendor on its $10 billion next-generation lunar delivery contract (Benzinga). MarketBeat reported on 12 November 2026 that management expects task orders under that contract to begin in 2027.
- Satellite awards keep arriving. On 3 November 2026, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory selected the company to provide the spacecraft for the FALCON-RADAR Earth observation mission. Terms were not disclosed.
Bear case
- The top of the guide was cut. The company's 12 November 2026 release narrowed the 2026 range to $920–950 million from $900 million–$1.0 billion, which lowered the upper end by $50 million. Management attributed the change to the timing of expected contract modifications and awards.
- One-time items lifted the margin. MarketBeat reported on 12 November 2026 that the 26% gross margin included about $19 million of favorable one-time program adjustments. The operating loss was $34 million, including a $9.5 million reserve tied to HughesNet's bankruptcy. Investing.com reported that free cash flow was helped by working-capital timing and early payments on new awards.
- Backlog includes acquired work. According to the company's release, the backlog increase since 31 December 2025 includes $612.8 million from the Lanteris acquisition and $31.7 million from Goonhilly.
- Share supply continues. A $500 million at-the-market stock-sale program has been open since 3 June 2026. SEC Form 4 filings show that director and 10% owner Kamal Ghaffarian sold 141,909 shares at an average $16.87 on 24 August 2026, and 96,304 shares at an average $15.41 on 8 September to 9 September 2026. Chief Technology Officer Timothy Crain sold 150,000 shares at an average $14.34 on 18 September to 21 September 2026. All three sales were made under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
- Capital spending stays high. Management expects capital spending to stay elevated through 2027 as it buys Altus lunar relay satellites, per Investing.com's call summary of 12 November 2026. That spending works against the $33 million of third-quarter free cash flow.
Price setup
The adjusted daily closes were $8.62 on 5 November 2026, $12.04 on 9 November 2026, $11.81 on 10 November 2026, $12.18 on 11 November 2026 and $13.03 on 12 November 2026. The 5 November 2026 close marks the low of the autumn selloff. The rebound started with the NASA award and continued through the results.
As of the 12 November 2026 close, the 50-day moving average was $12.95, so the shares closed just above it. The 200-day moving average of $19.34 is far above the price. Over three months the shares fell 31.5%, from a $19.01 close on 14 August 2026. A close back below the $11.81 close of 10 November 2026 would return the shares to the range they held before the report.
The 52-week closing low is $8.05, set on 20 November 2025. The 52-week intraday high is $46.75, set on 28 May 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~November 2026 (est.): Quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026. Shows how many shares were sold under the $500 million at-the-market program in the third quarter and how the $464 million cash balance was funded.
- ~March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance. Tests the $258–288 million fourth-quarter revenue guide and whether gross margin holds without one-time adjustments. It also sets the first 2027 outlook, the year management expects 40%–45% of backlog to convert.
- ~March 2027 (est.): IM-3 lander launch window opens (March–April 2027 per management). The IM-3 mission carries the first Altus lunar relay satellite; a slip would push back revenue from lunar data relay.
What would change the view
A daily close below $10.47, the 6 November 2026 close, which would erase the gain around the results and show the shares lagging again. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $258 million low end of the company's guide would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Backlog converts to revenue more slowly than the fourth-quarter guide assumes. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $258 million low end of the guide, or conversion below management's 13%–15% estimate for the fourth quarter.
- Margins fall back once one-time program adjustments stop helping. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter gross margin below the 26% reported for the third quarter, which included about $19 million of favorable one-time adjustments.
- Continued share issuance adds supply. Confirmed by: the third-quarter 10-Q or a later filing shows more shares sold and proceeds raised under the $500 million at-the-market program.
- Free cash flow reverses as working-capital benefits unwind and satellite spending rises. Confirmed by: negative free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2026, after the $33 million reported for the third quarter.
- Insiders and the largest holder keep selling into strength. Confirmed by: new SEC Form 4 filings showing further open-market sales by Kamal Ghaffarian or officers under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
- The IM-3 lander launch slips beyond the March–April 2027 window. Confirmed by: a company statement moving the launch date, or final end-to-end testing, past the first quarter of 2027.
What it trades with
Intuitive Machines trades with other space shares. Benzinga headlines on 16 October 2026 and 17 October 2026 cited delays at Rocket Lab, and the sector rebounded on 21 October 2026 after SpaceX's third-quarter results. A Benzinga roundup of space stocks on 10 November 2026 named moon contracts and earnings as the sector's main drivers.
NASA contract awards move sentiment across the group, including the 29 October 2026 selection of the IX Joint Venture to design a fission surface power system. The company's own next flight event is the IM-3 lunar mission, which carries the first Altus relay satellite.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $269.348 million against a $245.879 million estimate; the loss per share was $0.02 against an expected $0.12 loss. Benzinga, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was narrowed to $920–950 million from $900 million–$1.0 billion; the fourth-quarter revenue guide is $258–288 million, and the company expects positive full-year adjusted EBITDA. Company third-quarter 2026 results via Investing.com, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Backlog was $1.9 billion at 30 September 2026, including $612.8 million from the Lanteris acquisition and $31.7 million from Goonhilly. Company third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Operating cash flow was $66 million and free cash flow $33 million in the third quarter; cash and equivalents were $464 million at 30 September 2026. Company third-quarter 2026 results via Investing.com · as of
- The 26% third-quarter gross margin included about $19 million of favorable one-time program adjustments; the operating loss was $34 million, including a $9.5 million reserve tied to HughesNet's bankruptcy. MarketBeat, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Management expects 13%–15% of backlog to convert to revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 40%–45% in 2027. Third-quarter 2026 earnings call, via Investing.com · as of
- NASA named Intuitive Machines a vendor on its $10 billion next-generation lunar delivery contract. Benzinga company news, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Director and 10% owner Kamal Ghaffarian sold 96,304 shares at an average $15.41 on 8 September to 9 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 10 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Intuitive Machines Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results; Reports Record Financials Across The Board - Revenue, Profitability, Positive Cash Flow, and Backlog · quantisnow.com
- Earnings call transcript: Intuitive Machines tops Q3 2026 estimates as stock jumps 14% · in.investing.com
- Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.08 EPS · marketbeat.com ·
- Intuitive Machines Inc Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $269 Million, Net Loss of $4.02 Million Exceeds Estimates · gurufocus.com
- Intuitive Machines Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- Intuitive Machines jumps as revenue surges past estimates · seekingalpha.com
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