Earnings inflection · 191 dossiers

Post-print recovery extended: $65.77 close on 2026-08-07 (+2.45%), above the 20-day and 50-day levels marked on 08-04, with the $69.36 52-week high in view. Two dated events inside four sessions — CMS's 3:00pm EDT 2026-08-12 PY2027 rate…

Deal-arb discount narrowed to 7.5%: RKLB closed $82.83 on 2026-08-07, $15.33 inside the collar's flat band, so the package still marks $54.00 against IRDM's $49.93. Forty days post-announcement there is still no Form S-4, no FCC docket and…

The August 6 binary resolved on the numbers and broke on the tape: EPS $1.10 vs $0.49, guidance raised $250M, stock closed $26.54 from $30.11 and $27.90 on August 7. What is left to buy is a post-print reset into the September 16 Investor…

Float-royalty leg is finished; the stock now trades on Arc. Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $73.3B USDC circulation and $701.3M revenue vs $718.6M consensus, but FY26 other-revenue guidance doubled to $310–330M and Arc mainnet targets 2026-09-16…

Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary.

Second up-day into tonight's print with nothing new disclosed: SMR closed $9.49 on 2026-08-04 (+5.33%), 25% above the 2026-07-29 base and still under a falling $9.90 50-day. Q2 consensus spans $1.0M (Zacks) to $8.80M (MarketBeat) on a…

July's rotation-crown has slipped — Polymarket now gives Apple 20% odds of ending 2026 as the largest company (7/24) and semis are breaking out again (NVDA 7/23). The live narrative is the 'anti-CapEx AI trade' as Alphabet turns…

Second-leg breakout failed: after tagging a 52-week high $8.44 in early July, ABCL round-tripped to $5.31 (2026-07-24, -6.35%), losing the $6.79 shelf and $6.20 retest line, back at the June ~$5.09 base. The momentum edge is gone; what's…

CMS NTAP for ZEVASKYN granted 2026-08-04 plus a confirmed 2026-08-13 Q2 date have carried ABEO to within 0.7% of its $7.29 52-week high. The launch-ramp narrative is accelerating on reimbursement news, but the print is the binary:…

Single-asset UC biotech; the pivotal binary already fired (June 29 Phase 3 maintenance: ~50% Week-44 remission vs 10.4% placebo), the ~$920M raise cleared at $125, and 13 analysts caught it after the +36% gap. Now faded back to the…

US-reschedule sentiment is spent for this name: the DEA Schedule-III hearing closed July 15 2026 with no ALJ timeline, and the economics accrue to US operators, not a Canadian LP. The Aug 5 Q1 FY2027 print is a guided transitional-year…

Oil-shock beta has decoupled: the Strait of Hormuz is physically shut yet WTI holds ~$71 on a rebuilt glut, while ProFrac sits in its 52-week-low neighborhood (last ~$4.90, 2026-07-09) over a loss-making frac core and ~$1.05B net debt. The…

June memory/HBM semicap re-rating that ran ACLS to a $193.78 high has broken; stock chopping ~$134 (−5.2% on 2026-07-24), ~31% off high, on flat FY2026 revenue. Forward path is now two binaries: the 2026-08-06 Q2 print and the…

VOICE outcomes win (USRC trial stopped early, June 2026) de-risked Vafseo's dialysis-anemia case, but the tape bled to ~$1.22, only ~48% above the $0.82 low and still fading; the late-July/early-August Q2 print is the binary —…

Profitable-MA-disruptor narrative broke on 2026-07-08: a whistleblower suit from a former Chief Transformation Officer alleges the +88% adjusted-EBITDA inflection was manufactured by reclassifying opex as capex across FY2024-25. Shares…

Best-in-class oral TYK2 story sitting near 52-week highs (~$28) as the market waits on the Q3 2026 LUMUS Phase 2b lupus topline — the binary that either re-rates envudeucitinib into a multi-billion indication or caps it as a psoriasis-only…

Closed special situation: Arcline's $29.00 all-cash take-private (signed 2026-06-16, ~$272M, Q3-2026 close) hard-caps the stock. At $28.65 (2026-07-21) only a ~1.2% arb spread remains after the 2026-07-16 preliminary proxy — a frozen…

Single-asset binary: Phase 3 LUCIDITY topline for avexitide in post-bariatric hypoglycemia is guided for late August/early September 2026 (reaffirmed 2026-08-06), while the stock has run 54.9% in three months to within 5.7% of its 52-week…

The July 14–17 Delaware bench trial closed with no verdict and no buyout; the quick-resolution crowd unwound and ANAB round-tripped from the low-$70s to ~$54 (Jul 24). The whole equity is now a dateless wait on a Chancery post-trial…

Precision-psychiatry re-rate (~10x off $2.85) re-armed on 2026-07-13 — a successful FDA meeting cleared an additional ALTO-207 monotherapy Phase 3 in TRD, funded same-day by a $100M raise at $26.48. Narrative refreshed, but every data…

AbbVie's signed all-cash takeout at $135.11 (announced 2026-06-23, ~$10.9B, ~49% premium to the $90.38 pre-bid close) caps the stock at the bid and killed the IL-13 momentum leg. What trades now is merger-arb carry into an expected H2-2026…

Rumor confirmed and cashed: Eli Lilly is acquiring AtaiBeckley (announced 2026-07-16) for $6.75/share cash plus up to $2.50 CVR tied to BPL-003/VLS-01 milestones. Shares gapped to ~$7.20 and desks cut to Hold en masse — momentum is dead,…

Take-private is done: AVNS holders approved the $25.00/share all-cash AIP buyout on 2026-07-22 (~99.75% of votes cast), all regulatory clearances in hand, close guided by 2026-07-27 with NYSE delisting on completion. Price is pinned to…

Parent-level distress in the courts: ~2026-06-26 60-day São Paulo shield plus Chapter 15 in SDNY, Fitch C / S&P default (2026-06-30); management skipping ~$177M July–Aug coupons and pushing an extrajudicial plan (5-yr extension, 100% PIK)…

Broken-growth AID-pump name idling into a binary Q2 print (~2026-07-28, ~2 days out): the number decides whether new patient starts re-accelerate or post a second straight sequential decline. Two clustered sell-side PT raises (Goldman $19,…

Bifunctional EGFR/TGF-β narrative in HPV-negative head & neck cancer stalled after the ASCO 2026 three-year-OS re-rate: $27.76 close is ~10% off the $30.99 high on roughly half prior turnover, consensus PT ~$31.46 sits only 13% above spot,…

De-rate reversal off the $7.48 Nov-CRL low has stalled near $14 after peaking ~$16 in early July; the opakalim epilepsy pivotal (RISE3) topline is unscheduled 2H-26, sell-side is turning cautious (BofA Underperform $11), and a dilution…

Statin-for-inflammation leg broke on someone else's Phase 3: Novo's ZEUS missed MACE at HR 0.99 on 2026-07-31 despite lowering hsCRP, and BIOA fell 59.6% intraday. QUELL-CV's primary endpoint is hsCRP — the exact surrogate ZEUS just…

Still a merger-arb wrapper rather than an oncology stock: the object is a planned $44–48M pre-close cash dividend plus a 3.69% stub in the AATD base-editing NewCo. The 2026-08-07 10-Q re-documented it ($72.6M cash, 75% RIF), but price has…

Broken IPO that cleared its 2026-07-21 lockup without a supply flood but is grinding on the $4.665 all-time low with no bounce; Goldman cut its target to $7.75, and the undated $100M Galaxy verdict plus the ~2026-08-26 Q2 print are the…

Take-private premium is bleeding while sell-side chases it higher: price slipped to $27.25 (2026-07-17) from $28.41 (2026-07-02) even as KBW went to $31 and JPM to $30. Nothing is signed, and the 2026-07-30 Q2 print (guide $485–490M,…

CAN-2409 lung program promoted to pivotal on the 2026-06-30 AURORA Phase 3 launch, and sell-side keeps stacking (Stifel Buy $22 on 7/13, avg PT ~$20 vs high-single-digit spot) — but the June breakout to $11.36 round-tripped to ~$9.50 and…

Activist-driven re-rate on a cheap professional-services roll-up: Reference Equity's July 7 letter to halt buybacks and resume M&A drove a +9.3% pop, and the tape is +36% in 30 days straight into a July 29 earnings binary that confirms or…

Cash merger-arb in its final mechanical innings: shareholders adopted the $13.25 Knox Lane take-private on 2026-07-16 (~72% of shares for) and HSR is cleared, leaving only customary closing before delisting. Pennies of upside vs a residual…

Humanoid-robotics de-SPAC: Churchill XI merges with Agility Robotics (~$2.5B, Nvidia/Amazon-backed, re-lists as AGLT). Theme intact, but the tape is an RSI-98 filing-driven blow-off that has since gone quiet with no dated catalyst until…

The rescheduling binary CGC trades on came and went: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with no verdict, briefs due 2026-08-17 and the ALJ recommendation undated into H2 2026, likely litigated into 2027. Shares closed $0.89 on 2026-07-24,…

Busted-IPO fintech: operations accelerating (Q1 rev +25% to $647M, first GAAP profit, FY guide raised to $2.66–2.69B) but the stock trades ~19% below its $27 IPO and bases near post-IPO lows — a compressed multiple, not an accelerating…

Takeover optionality cleared its first test: the 2026-07-29 Q2 beat (adj EPS $1.38 vs $1.11 est, organic +6%) and raised FY guide ($4.48–$4.60) removed the standalone-collapse case and carried price to $49.12, above every dated sell-side…

Terminal special situation, unchanged: Lilly's $38.00 cash plus up-to-$9.00 non-transferable CVR scheme became effective 2026-06-24, last Nasdaq print was 2026-06-23, and Form 15-12G is dated 2026-07-06. The only live development is…

Fee-reform catalyst landed: the 2026-07-13 Ninth Amended MSA cuts the base fee from 2.00% to 1.25% of ANA and caps 2027 base fees at $30M (est. $19–22M saving) — but nothing hits P&L before 2027-01-01. Price recovered ~$10.08 (2026-07-08)…

Lifyorli oncology launch (approved 2026-03-25, NCCN preferred) re-accelerated the tape to fresh 52-week highs near $92, and the 2026-06-17 Cushing's relacorilant resubmission (~Dec PDUFA) adds second-approval optionality. But a fresh entry…

Momentum leg is dead: the story crystallized into Vertex's $85.00/share all-cash takeout (announced 2026-07-06, ~$10B). Shares gapped to ~$83.50 and now trade as a merger-arb spread capped at $85 with ~$40 of air below on a break. Residual…

Takeover-premium leg is dead: the 2026-07-06 Vista/Quinti gap is fully filled and the 2026-08-05 print cut FY26 contribution ex-TAC guidance to $1.034–1.058B from $1.175–1.198B, re-basing the standalone any bid would price. No board…

The 2026-08-06 Q2 update pushed the registrational PTCL interim from late 2026 to a Q1 2027 futility analysis that publishes no efficacy data, and set AD Phase 2 topline at Q3 2027 — the binary clock this name traded on is now empty until…

Post-exemption refining recovery is measurable — Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA $209M vs $99M a year ago, refining margin $9.94/bbl vs $2.21 — but the tape has stopped paying: $31.15 close on 2026-08-07 is 21.9% under the $39.89 high, and…

Definium re-accelerated off the June Phase 3 MDD win: a Wells Fargo initiation at $68 (7/27) and Piper's $75 (8/7) carried it to $46.14, 4.8% under the 52wk high. The leg being bought is DT120 as a multi-indication CNS franchise — and the…

The June–July re-rate has run into an empty calendar. The 2026-08-03 Q2 update pushed DT-168 FECD data to 2027 and re-cut RESTORE-FA to a 10-patient 12-week cohort with blood FXN protein as the primary efficacy endpoint, moving the next…

June 11 was the last new clinical datapoint; what carried price to $60.46 on 2026-08-07 was the 8/5 Q2 print ($895.2M cash, runway into 2030, Fast Track) plus a same-week target cluster (Stifel $82, GS $80, Guggenheim cut to $78). Funded…

Take-private special situation: the board rejected Yellow Wood's $30 bid as too low, and mid-July sell-side PT raises (Canaccord $34, Wells Fargo $30) confirm a >$30 intrinsic read. But a month on no competing bid has surfaced, the theme…

Post-crash story reset: 2026-07-13 updated ERAS-0015 Phase 1 data (57% uORR at 32 mg in 2L+ KRAS G12X pancreatic, n=7) plus 2027 pivotal plans, immediately monetised via a 31,428,572-share offering at $17.50 on 2026-07-14. Funded, but the…

Resolved and off the tape: ARCHIMED closed its take-private of Esperion on 2026-07-13 at $3.16 cash plus a non-tradeable CVR of up to $100M aggregate, and the common stock ceased trading and delisted the same day. Last listed close was…

The late-June retail bounce has fully unwound — EVH traded ~$5.76 on 2026-07-07, back under the $6.59–6.86 consensus target band and well under Truist's flat $7. Nothing carries the name now except the confirmed 2026-08-06 Q2 print, which…

Design incumbent re-rated as an AI winner (BofA Buy, $30 PT, 7/7) rather than an AI casualty, yet the stock churns below its 100/200-day moving averages with heavy short interest into its first public earnings print on 8/5 — that print,…

Payments roll-up at ~$50, a hair above its $46.26 52-week low set on a 2026 guide-down. The Global Blue tax-free-shopping integration ("Shift4 One," launched 2026-07-14) is the transformation leg, but the 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary…

Busted-merger workout losing its bid: the +48% June bounce to $14.87 (on a speculative Amazon-bolt-on thesis) has faded ~13% to ~$13, whole-company sale is now reported "unlikely," and the 2026-07-10 chairman exit forfeited…

Take-private arb in its endgame: DEFM14A filed 2026-07-06, vote 2026-08-03, HSR expired 2026-06-22. Closed $9.44 on 2026-07-31 vs the $9.50 cash price — ~0.6% gross left against a ~37% break tail to the unaffected $5.93. Only offshore…

The operating turnaround is real but priced, and its one asymmetric leg — the activist proxy fight — lost its teeth: ISS (2026-07-07) backed all nine board directors and urged holders to withhold from the two Radoff/Jumana nominees, so the…

Post-launch broken-momentum hematology name: RYTELO 2L lower-risk MDS ramp is real but decelerating ($51.8M Q1 net rev, +31% YoY) while price holds near its $1.04 52-week low, below every major MA. The only live re-rate is the…

ZEUS (ziltivekimab, MACE HR 0.99) failed on 2026-07-31 and took GLUE −27.16% to $16.52, its worst session on record, because the hsCRP-to-outcomes link under MRT-8102's ASCVD story is exactly what ZEUS could not demonstrate. Platform,…

Sell-side is re-rating GSHD ahead of the tape: five price-target raises in eight days (Piper $52→$72, Cantor $76, UBS $70, JPM $60, RBC $55) against a stock still at $54.28 and -49% YoY. The 2026-07-22 Q2 print is the binary that decides…

The housing-bill leg is spent — the Act auto-enacted 2026-07-11 and nothing dated has replaced it — yet HOV has re-rated to $137.78 (2026-08-07), 11.8% off the $156.16 high, on no company news. The confirmed 2026-08-20 Q3 print (quarter…

Commercial ophthalmology special situation trading on one number: whether the guided Q2 ramp ($71–81M vs $44.2M Q1) prints ~2026-08-11. A ~40% recovery off the May low into ASRS clinical data and a fresh BTIG $63 reiteration has front-run…

M&A leg is dead — no SiriusXM headline since the 2026-05-29 NYT "stalled" report and the April spike fully round-tripped ($6.33 high → $3.86 on 2026-08-07, -39%). What is left is a binary: Q2 print 2026-08-10 after the close is the first…

Post-Parkinson's-failure microcap, now a single-asset PAH story (IKT-001 imatinib prodrug). IMPROVE-PAH Phase 3 only began enrolling 2026-04-07, so topline is 2027-2028 and there is no near-term binary. Stock ~$2.23 trades near its ~$200M+…

Busted-catalyst pancreatic biotech: atebimetinib's 17.3-mo single-arm 1L OS is real, but the Phase 3 binary is mid-2028 and the tape keeps fading post-ASCO ($5.11→$4.32 in two weeks) even as targets climb to $18–$30. Cheap…

Dilution overhang answered with debt: the 2026-07-16 Oxford amendment lifted the facility to $500.0M and funded $100.0M immediately, leaving the ~14.67M share count intact but the balance sheet levered into a nine-month wait for the…

Special-situation biotech, not momentum: the 2026 Linzess pricing-restructure re-rate faded to the low-$3s, then bounced ~30% to a $4.65 close July 8 on M&A speculation with no confirmed bid, since fading to ~$4.21. The Aug 6 Q2 print is…

The equity is now a deal instrument: KKR's $127 all-cash agreement, signed 2026-08-03, leaves $1.73 of headline consideration above the 2026-08-07 close of $125.27, while a break returns it toward the $96–$110 pre-leak analyst zone.…

Single-asset MASH binary: lanifibranor's NATiV3 Phase 3 topline (Q4 2026) is the whole equity. The June 2 refinancing cleared the funding overhang (runway into early Q1 2028) and Cantor initiated Overweight July 17. Stock coils on the…

Both binaries this stock coiled around have fired and are spent: JADE101's clean Phase 1 (2026-06-01, ~70% IgA reduction, q12w dosing) and Vera's TRUTAKNA accelerated approval (2026-07-07), which validated the APRIL/BAFF mechanism but put…

Fuel-reversion bull leg broke: Brent re-spiked to ~$86 (Jul 17) on renewed Mideast conflict, reversing the sub-$73 tailwind the whole trade needed. Raymond James (Jul 6) cut to Underperform flagging a Chapter 11 that wipes equity; $9.3B…

eVTOL cert story still advancing (FAA TIA testing, 2026 Dubai target) but the trade rolled over: ~$8 testing support, down ~33% since June 1, recovery base gone, CFO sold ~half his stake June 8, consolidation coverage marks sentiment…

Closed takeout, not a security: Chiesi's $27.00/share all-cash acquisition of KalVista completed 2026-06-11, shares delisted from Nasdaq with deregistration (POS AM, Form 25, Form 15) underway. No spread, no momentum leg, no listed share…

Freight cycle has physically inflected — tender rejections 17.2%, spot above contract for the first time since 2021 — but the tape stalled at ~$76.68 versus a $86.63 average target. The whole trade now compresses into the 2026-07-22 Q2…

ABC-platform redemption arc: after the 2022 DAZZLE wet-AMD miss took KOD to $4.60, back-to-back positive Phase 3 diabetic-retinopathy readouts (GLOW1, GLOW2) re-rated it ~9x. The September 2026 DAYBREAK wet-AMD topline is the binary —…

The binary already fired: KOMZIFTI's 2025-11-13 approval and ~40% R/R NPM1 share are priced, and the $24–28 targets need a frontline Phase 3 that doesn't read until 2028. The tape is drifting — $10.39, lower third of the H1 range. A…

Klaviyo beat Q1 2026 (rev +28%) yet gapped -32% on a light FY26 guide (~$14–22M below consensus), a CFO exit, and visible deceleration (23% FY guide); shares sit near 52-week lows below the 200-day into a binary Aug 5 Q2 print.…

Single-asset schizophrenia story re-rating on the 2026-07-22 pull-forward of NOVA-2 Phase 3 topline to H1 2027 plus a $150M crossover round at $34.94 on 2026-07-28. Price closed $48.00 on 2026-08-07 — above every published target ($45 HCW,…

All-cash takeout has closed the story. ANV Group's $3.15 tender for Open Lending went live 2026-06-29 with a 2026-07-27 initial expiry; the equity is pinned to the deal price with no momentum leg — only a thin arb spread against…

Single-asset FA binary: nomlabofusp's rolling BLA for accelerated approval is live, but the 2026-06-29 open-label data carried an anaphylaxis signal (10 of 43 patients, ~23%) that turned the filing into a ~17% selloff. Shares drift near…

APOL1 kidney precision-medicine story with clinical proof-of-concept in hand (Mar-25 HORIZON: 35.6% proteinuria cut, 61.8% in FSGS), but the tape has rolled over — $27.68, down 26% YTD and ~48% off the 52-wk high, no hard binary until…

Once-weekly canvuparatide's 1-yr Phase 2 durability (57% responders, 12 Jun) plus a cleared End-of-Phase-2 FDA path drove a +580% YTD re-rating into all-time highs. With the data catalyst spent, no dated binary inside 30 days, and an…

Take-private process went live: WSJ reported substantive Diller talks 2026-07-10, MGM seated a special committee mid-July, and the board reportedly views $48.30 as too low — so the trade is now a bump handicap, not a growth story. At…

ICE's $167.00 all-cash agreement signed 2026-07-30 converted MKTX into a spread instrument: the 2026-08-07 close of $162.53 leaves $4.47 gross against an H1 2027 guided close. The operating narrative is fully priced and the issuer has…

MakeMyTrip's mid-year recovery bounce has stalled: after reclaiming the 200-day near $55, MMYT rolled back to ~$49, below both the 50- and 200-day, straight into an August 3 Q1 FY2027 print where consensus models EPS down ~76% YoY on ~137x…

The Aug 5 PDUFA resolved as an approval — mFLUSIVA is the first mRNA flu vaccine — and the tape did not break out: $59.17 on 2026-08-07, 27.7% under the 52-week high. Moderna guided to no meaningful 2026-27 season revenue, so the flu leg…

AI optical/interconnect re-rating is intact — PTs $105–125 (Stifel/Northland/Benchmark, 2026-06-25) versus a stock that ran ~$70→~$96.60 into late June — but the name now sits ~5 days from a binary Q2 FY26 print (~2026-07-23), retail…

GSK's $124/share all-cash acquisition has closed: the tender expired 2026-07-14 with ~91.3% of shares tendered and accepted for payment, satisfying the minimum condition and triggering a Section 251(h) merger, Nasdaq delisting and SEC…

TRIDENT's OS miss (2026-06-18) killed the re-rating leg the 2026 markup was built on; JPM's 2026-07-13 reinstatement at Neutral/$17 confirms sell-side capitulating toward the ~$15-16 tape. A +12% YoY, loss-making single-asset device name…

Growth-compounder narrative is dead: Q1 first orders -50%, revenue -26%, and the $9.25→~$17.88 summer bounce has bled back to $14.12. The Q2 print slipped from mid-August to 2026-09-09, leaving a month with no dated catalyst and price…

Takeover binary is resolved and deal-pinned: OGN trades ~$13.51 into Sun Pharma's $14.00 all-cash offer, a ~$0.49 (3.7%) gross spread. The 2026-07-06 disclosure suit was mooted by 2026-07-17 supplemental proxy filings, clearing the path to…

Closed by event: the Henkel all-cash takeout completed and OLPX was delisted from Nasdaq on 2026-07-07, with each share converted into the right to receive $2.06 cash. There is no longer a listed security, no price series, and no thesis to…

Post-CHMP-rejection repair, not a new leg: shares have clawed back from the 2026-06-26 gap low of $8.67 to roughly $9.69 on the J1289 J-code going live 2026-07-01. The 2026-08-13 Q2 print is the whole trade — consensus ~$11.6M net sales…

mCRPC PRC2 story de-risked as rinzimetostat enters registrational Phase 3 (Himalayas-1, 2026-07-14) with Bayer supplying NUBEQA and a J&J-backed enozertinib lung program behind it. But pivotal data is 2028+, so the only near-term mover is…

Dry-bulk recovery is in the P&L but not the tape: Q1 2026 (2026-05-11) adjusted EBITDA +70% YoY to $25.2M on $15,252/day TCE, yet the stock closed $7.42 on 2026-08-07, 20.1% under the $9.29 52-week high. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the…

Rumor is now a signed contract: Nuvei's $7.40 all-cash take-private (announced 2026-06-15, close mid-2027) pins PAYO near the $7.12 close as pure merger-arb. Only ~4% spread left to the deal vs ~28% air to the $5.14 standalone base; the…

Travel-reopening re-rate has largely run: after tagging a 52-week high near $19.75, the sell-side cluster completing 2026-07-17→23 kept Underweight/Neutral ratings (Morgan Stanley $13, Barclays $15) and merely marked PTs to the tape. The…

Post-correction RAIN RFID recovery has extended to $138.37 (2026-07-17), holding the reclaimed $128 April gap-fill and pressing the $144.57 post-earnings high — but the entire near-term read is the 2026-07-29 Q2 print (guide $103–106M, EPS…

Failed turnaround grinding at 52-week lows — $9.87 close, sitting on the $9.40 low. The 2026-06-15 binary resolved bearishly (comps -5.4%, EPS $0.16 vs ~$0.60 consensus) and the June squeeze fully round-tripped. No momentum, no catalyst…

Sell-side discovery leg is spent: three Strong Buys with a $30.67 average against $28.68 (2026-07-17) leaves ~7% to consensus. The July 13 warrant redemption cleared the last dilution overhang, but the de-risking AFib endpoints are 2027…

Special-situation setup: an April-2026 strategic review (Morgan Stanley engaged) puts a possible sale on a controlled, down-~90%-from-IPO name, while record DTC revenue (+62.8% YoY) and Disney Solitaire drove a Q1 guidance raise. The Aug 6…

Deal-rumor re-rate has already run: $13.79 (Jun 26) to $17.38 (Jul 17), +75% off the $9.92 low, on an unsigned ~$1.5B point-of-care divestiture. Sell-side chased it up (Citi $13→$18). The Aug 4 Q2 print is the binary, and a shrinking base…

FDA's 2026-06-17 reversal put AMT-130 on an accelerated-approval path with a Q3 2026 BLA — the narrative is genuinely repaired, but the move is spent: $40.25 (7/17) sits below the $45.50 June offering price with the CEO selling into it on…

Merger-arb stub, not a momentum vehicle: the Publicis $38.50 all-cash deal now has a dated shareholder vote (2026-08-17, 66⅔% threshold) and HSR filed 2026-06-11. At ~$37.82 the remaining spread is ~1.8% into a year-end close, against…

The +50% June reset rally round-tripped from ~$33.46 to $28.62 (2026-07-21), parking price back on the breakout shelf ahead of two binary FDA decisions: DTX401 (GSD Ia) PDUFA Aug 23 and UX111 (Sanfilippo A) PDUFA Sep 19. The July 30 Q2…

Broken growth compounder: the age-verification rollout throttled DAUs and forced FY26 bookings guidance down to +8-12%; stock is -66% from its $150 high and below the 200-day. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — it needs a DAU…

Broken gene-therapy rebuild bleeding toward its 52-week floor while waiting on binaries: KRESLADI (LAD-I) approved with a Q4 2026 launch and a closed $180M PRV sale fund it, but the re-rate is the undated H2 2026 RP-A501 Danon update — a…

Hypergrowth brokerage story has decelerated (Q1 rev +32% vs 70%+ historically, a forecast miss) and the stock sits near 52-week lows after the $880M RE/MAX deal spooked investors on dilution. The read is now a binary consolidation bet, not…

Q2 delivery beat and a RAISED FY output guide (2026-07-15) gave the recovery a fundamental leg, but the ~2026-05-27 death cross is uncured, the theme is a maturing consumer-discretionary tag-along, and the EV complex is heavy after Tesla's…

The oncology-pivot re-rate (0.55 to 8.00 in twelve months) has stalled: RLMD lost 10.5% on 2026-07-16 and another 4.0% on 2026-07-17 to $5.24, unwinding the Russell-inclusion bid with no dated NDV-01 catalyst before end-2026. Story intact,…

Ex-growth cyber name (Q1 2026 rev -0.3% YoY; Q2 ARR guided to ~$820M) trading near $11 purely on a Jana-forced take-private; Goldman/JPMorgan shopping RPD to Advent/Bain/EQT. Newest sell-side PTs now cluster $9–11 at the tape as deal…

Post-interim re-rating has fully decayed: $4.61 on 2026-07-17 vs the $5.14 late-June high, with no dated event between here and the upLIFT full topline in 2H-2026. A binary rare-disease name in its dead zone — the 6/8 responder signal is…

All-cash $105 Mapfre buyout signed 2026-07-23; the +37.58% announcement gap already fired, so SAFT is now a ~4.6% merger-arb spread into a Q1 2027 close — capped upside, binary Massachusetts-regulatory downside to the ~$73 unaffected…

Type-1-diabetes functional-cure narrative: UP421's no-immunosuppression islet transplant is still producing insulin at 14 months (n=1), de-risking SC451's IND guided "as early as 2026." Rare-disease cell therapy is accelerating, but the…

Cyclospora outbreak crushed SG from ~$9 to $6.15 (Jul 16) on guilt by association; FDA traceback cleared it Jul 17 (source: Taylor Farms iceberg at Taco Bell), sparking an 18% bounce to ~$7.08. Now below the $7.92–$8.43 consensus with…

Post-Sarepta DMD gene-therapy vacuum trade: SGT-003 clean across 40 dosed (~110% microdystrophin) vs Elevidys's liver-death collapse. Ran ~+200% to a $11.45 high, then gave back ~29% into the $8 shelf; the overdue mid-2026 INSPIRE data +…

Single-asset ivonescimab binary sitting $1.26 above its $12.55 52-week low with going-concern language on the record. The narrative leg is dead but the funding question changed shape: co-CEO Duggan bought 3.81M shares at $13.12 on Jun 12…

Since MIMEDX's 2026-07-29 definitive agreement ($33.00 cash + 0.4735 MDXG shares, ~$35 headline, ~$350M EV), SMTI trades as a merger-arb instrument rather than a wound-care growth story. At $34.10 (2026-08-07) the gross spread to computed…

The June defense-MoU / SpaceX-proxy leg broke: the $14.33 close (2026-08-07) is under the lost $15–16 Diehl base and 43.8% off the $25.48 high. What is live now is smaller and dated — NOAA's $3M HyMS extension (08-04) and a $12.40M…

Single-product epinephrine name whose one catalyst — a July no-prior-auth formulary add for neffy — came and went unpaid; the stock has since broken its old $6.66 52-week low to fresh lows near $6. The neffy ramp is real but the access…

Contested special situation: a real June 8 Kalshi prediction-markets data lane sits under an unresolved Muddy Waters fraud allegation (20–40% illegal-operator revenue) plus an SDNY class action. Price has round-tripped to ~$14 as three…

China EVO+ recovery leg is decelerating: Q2 prelim (2026-07-16) of ">$90M" was in-line, sequentially below Q1's $93.52M, and drew an 8.8% gap-down that broke the $29.43 50-day. Triple-digit YoY comps end here, the M&A binary died at the…

The June AI-data-center re-rating has failed its retest: $62.06 on 2026-07-17 is -22% from the 2026-06-22 high of $79.82 and back under the early-June breakout base, with a $1.5B convertible overhang and a 7% selloff that ignored a BofA…

Single-asset binary now inside its own catalyst window: the STRO-004 (DAR8 Tissue Factor exatecan ADC) Phase 1 readout was guided "mid-2026" and that window is expiring undated. Price has gone flat at ~$29.7 for four weeks after the June…

All-stock takeout capped the story and the acquirer de-rated: ON's ~19% announcement drop and slide to $87.37 cut the 1.350-ratio implied value from ~$160 to ~$118, with SYNA at $114.05. What's left is a 3.4% gross spread to a mid-2027…

Terminated, not traded: the IKS Health merger closed 2026-07-09 at $26.25/share cash after the 2026-07-07 vote passed 11.31M for / 8,818 against. Shares were cashed out and delisted from Nasdaq. No tradable equity remains; the ticker is a…

Closed merger-arb: shares pinned just under Merck KGaA's $73 all-cash bid (06-25, $11.3B EV, expected close late-2026/early-2027). The full sell-side has folded targets to $73 (RBC 07-09 the latest). No narrative leg left — only thin…

Reform binary spent without resolving: the DEA hearing closed 2026-07-15 with only a 2026-08-17 briefing deadline and no ALJ timeline, so Schedule III is now an open-ended administrative process. TLRY printed a fresh 52-week low of $4.20…

The deep-sea-mining reshoring leg is broken: TMC has cut through the $3.93 prior 52-week low to a fresh $3.57 low near $3.74, roughly -67% from the $11.35 high, with no bid and no near-term catalyst. The decisive NOAA license decision is…

Insurance-cost-ratio recovery is the whole story: Q1 2026 ICR of 84% vs ~90% guide drove a +10% pop, and shares ran ~+75% off the $33.60 low to ~$59, now ~23% above the 50-DMA into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print. Recognized, not early —…

Activist sum-of-the-parts special situation cooling: the board-control catalyst passed, TheFork sold to Amex for $700M, and BTIG's July 21 downgrade reframed Viator as a keeper rather than the next breakup piece — draining…

Clinical binary printed clean (2026-06-22: 100% milestone response N=12, zero treatment-related SAEs) but the next catalyst slipped to H1 2027 — pivotal six-month interim AND FDA BLA-pathway feedback both guided to the first half of next…

FILSPARI's dual-indication ramp has fully re-rated the equity: at ~$56.71 (2026-07-17) TVTX trades at consensus PT ($52–58) and 4% under its 2026-06-25 ATH close of $59.03, having gone sideways for four weeks. The approval binary is spent;…

Broken parabola gone flat: six weeks of $530–$570 chop after the May 8 print (GM 47.0%, rev +18.7%, but EPS $3.88 vs ~$4.42 whisper) with zero scheduled catalyst until the Q4 FY26 report on 2026-08-21. Fundamentals intact, tape dead,…

Oil-tailwind leg inverted: Brent closed 88.09 on 2026-07-17 (+14% on the week on US-Iran supply fears), erasing the sub-$80 condition that drove the June double. Price is ~26% off the 8.41 high set one day before Citi's $9 target, a 10%…

M&A event fully fired: Intersnack's $14.25/share all-cash take-private (announced 2026-07-21) gapped UTZ ~90% and pinned it at the offer. No momentum leg remains — only a thin, capped merger-arb spread to close, which is not this book's…

Merger-arb tracking stock for Axcelis: fixed 0.3575 ACLS/VECO, both votes cleared 2026-02-06, only China SAMR remains before the 2026-09-30 outside date. ACLS's slide to ~$134 de-pegged VECO to a premium over the exchange ratio (~$48) —…

June's volume-backed reclaim to $10.03 failed to extend — $9.43 on Jul 17, -5.3% on the week, with short interest rising to 11.72% of float as shorts pressed the fade. Structure holds above the 50-DMA near $8.71, but nothing hard is dated…

Last large independent GLP-1/GIP obesity asset and a live M&A target, but VANQUISH pivotal topline is a 2027 event — a catalyst vacuum bridged only by a 3Q26 maintenance-dose readout. Tape rolling over from ~$40 (07-09) to ~$35.50 (07-25),…

Cycle-turn re-rate has fully round-tripped: down ~46% from $69.47 to the high-$30s, now under the $50 June placement and below every covering analyst's target. Q1's 1.34 book-to-bill and $1.6B backlog were real but sit at ~35x forward into…

Enterprise software's designated AI-casualty trade is unwinding: Q1 FY27 (2026-05-21) printed cRPO $8.806B +15.5% and raised the FY27 margin guide to 30.5%, and the stock has run +40.5% in three months while still 27.5% below its $247.69…

Busted-growth genomics name; the recovery off the −49% May guide-cut crash has stalled in the low-$60s, below the $74.83 200-day. The confirmed Aug 3 Q2 print (blended ARR vs the ~$3,300 baseline) is the binary — the same day as the…

Two analyst target cuts in ten days (Wells Fargo to $170, DA Davidson to $200) into the 2026-07-29 Q2 print signal de-risking ahead of the H2 comp-turn binary; a ~50% relief bounce off the $116.35 low is unproven, and the print — not…

Post-X-TOLE2 de-risking (2026-03-09, placebo-adjusted -42.7%, p≈6e-12) already re-rated azetukalner from the $40s to new all-time-high closes near $71. The story is now maturing into a procedural Q3 2026 NDA, with the next true binary…

Royalty-collector-to-owned-pipeline pivot; XmAb819 ccRCC data at ESMO (Oct 23–27) is the real binary but ~90 days out. Stock ran $6.92→$17.47 to near 52-week highs on pipeline optimism while royalty revenue collapses (Q1 $4.5M vs $32.7M…

Roll-up execution leg is spent: ALL.SPACE ($300M, closed 2026-07-08) and Solestial (~$67M) both closed on schedule, yet YSS made fresh lows near $17.93 — the tape is pricing Wolfpack's unrefuted claim that the Pentagon killed the SDA…

Zero-trust compounder trading at half its 52-week high after the 2026-05-26 FY27 guide of 16–17% growth triggered a ~31.5% single-day drop. ARR still +25% YoY to $3,525M; the recovery leg has carried price to RSI 67.8 at $168.68…

Both Phase 2 trials (TibuSHIELD/HS, TibuSURE/SSc) are now fully enrolled and fresh William Blair + Chardan bull notes landed in early July, but the enrollment-momentum leg has stalled — 2026-07-17 volume ran ~82% below average and price is…

The June patent re-rating fully reversed: EMA's CHMP issued a negative opinion on arimoclomol's EU application 2026-07-24 (efficacy not proven), and ZVRA gapped ~24% to the high-$9s, cutting through the $11.50 base. EU expansion is now…