AGLT · Churchill Capital Corp XI
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.39
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
35.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.39, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 57.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.39, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A raised revenue outlook from the company would also point to the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 0.2
All filed numbers
What Churchill Capital Corp XI reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −21.7 | 109 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not reported |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 0.2 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 0.2 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −47.0 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,782 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,782 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest: not available.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $5.0M | $0 |
The thesis
Agility Robotics, the humanoid-robot maker that listed on Nasdaq as AGLT after merging with Churchill Capital Corp XI on 4 November 2026, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. Revenue is small, losses are large, and a registration filed on 10 November 2026 covers resale of about two-thirds of the shares outstanding. The first quarterly report as a public company, whose date has not been announced, is the next test of revenue and cash.
The shares closed at $9.13 on 11 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes), below the $10.00 price paid in the private placement and below the 50-day average of $11.39. The three-month change to that date is −43.6%. The first-day close on 5 November 2026 was $11.51 per the company's Form S-1 (The Robot Report reported $11.49), and Let's Data Science reported a close of $9.90 on 6 November 2026.
The companies reported expected gross proceeds of $465.1 million on 30 October 2026, against roughly $620 million described in the 13 October 2026 filing. The Form S-1 filed 10 November 2026 lists 242,089,880 common shares outstanding and does not report redemption levels or trust cash in the portion reviewed.
Bullish and bearish views on Churchill Capital Corp XI
The bull case on Churchill Capital Corp XI (AGLT), in brief: the merger closed with cash. The bear case: revenue is small and losses are large.
Bull case
- The merger closed with cash. Shareholders approved the deal on 2 November 2026 and it closed on 4 November 2026. The companies reported about $465 million of expected gross proceeds (company announcement, 30 October 2026), and the S-1 lists $201.0 million from the private placement at $10.00 per share.
- First listed pure-play humanoid maker. GCN described Agility on 5 November 2026 as the first public pure-play humanoid-robot maker in the US. Listed alternatives for that exposure are few.
- Named partners and a compute supplier. Agility said on 22 October 2026 that Digit 5 will standardize on NVIDIA IGX Thor for onboard compute. Its 24 June 2026 announcement listed deployments at Schaeffler, GXO and Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada.
- Order book is large against revenue. Agility reports more than $300 million of Digit 5 orders subject to milestones (company announcement, 21 October 2026). The June 2026 deal valued the company at $2.5 billion pre-money.
Bear case
- Revenue is small and losses are large. Agility's 2025 revenue was $1.8 million and its net loss was $138.1 million, per Let's Data Science citing company filings. Business Insider reported that more than half of that revenue came from five robots bought by one of Agility's investors.
- Resale registration covers most of the share count. The Form S-1 filed 10 November 2026 registers 160,810,584 shares for resale by selling securityholders, which the prospectus describes as about 66% of shares outstanding. A second S-1 filed the same period covers resales of about 8% of shares outstanding. Resales are subject to lock-up terms, and the company receives no cash from them.
- The shares trade below the private-placement price. The 11 November 2026 close of $9.13 sits under the $10.00 price paid by private-placement investors, and the $11.50 warrant exercise price is further above. The shares fell from $11.51 on 5 November 2026 to that level in four sessions.
- Proceeds came in below the earlier plan. Expected gross proceeds of $465.1 million compare with roughly $620 million in the 13 October 2026 filing.
- Orders carry conditions and volume is months away. The $300 million-plus figure is milestone-based and is not recognised revenue. Agility has guided Digit 5 early access to the first half of 2027.
- Insider holdings are mostly newly awarded. Form 4 filings dated 6 November 2026 show grants or awards on 4 November 2026 of 12,422,709 shares to Chief Robot Officer Jonathan Hurst, 9,938,151 to director Damion Shelton, 2,576,560 to Chief Financial Officer Michael Beer and 347,790 to Chief Executive Officer Margaret Johnson. These are awards, and no open-market insider sales appear in the filings.
Price setup
Adjusted daily closes show the shell, then AGLT, at $17.07 on 14 August 2026, $10.83 on 14 October 2026, $10.24 on 27 October 2026 and $11.26 on 4 November 2026. The close of $9.13 on 11 November 2026 is the latest, and the 50-day average of closes on that date is $11.39.
The first session on 5 November 2026 ran from a low of $8.40 to a high of $12.15 (The Robot Report). The latest close is $0.73 above that first-day low, which is the nearest prior reference. The $10.00 private-placement price and the $11.50 warrant exercise price both sit above the shares.
Warrants outstanding before the offering number 4,212,500, exercisable at $11.50 per share, per the S-1. Full cash exercise would add about $48.4 million to proceeds and raise the share count to 246,318,851.
Catalysts ahead
- ~November 2026 (est.): Possible effectiveness of Agility's resale registration statements filed 10 November 2026. Effectiveness would allow registered resales by selling securityholders subject to lock-up terms, adding potential supply to the shares.
- ~November 2026 (est.): Post-closing financial statements and final redemption results from Agility. Shows the cash held after redemptions against the $465.1M of expected gross proceeds reported on 30 October 2026.
- Not yet announced: Agility's first quarterly report as a public company. First check of revenue and cash burn against a $300M+ milestone-based order book and a first-half 2027 Digit 5 early-access target.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.39, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A raised revenue outlook from the company would also point to the shares leading.
What it trades with
AGLT trades with listed robotics and AI-hardware names and with NVIDIA, which supplies Digit 5's onboard compute. It also follows the pattern of recent de-SPAC (blank-check merger) listings, where shares often drift toward or below the private-placement price in the first weeks as resale registrations are filed. One report tied the first-day move to a broad fall in technology shares on 5 November 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Form S-1 lists 242,089,880 common shares outstanding and registers 160,810,584 shares for resale by selling securityholders, about 66% of shares outstanding. Agility Robotics Form S-1, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Private placement raised $201,025,000 through 20,102,500 shares at $10.00 per share; 4,212,500 warrants are outstanding at an $11.50 exercise price. Agility Robotics Form S-1, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Common stock closed at $11.51 and warrants at $4.51 on 5 November 2026, the first day of trading. Agility Robotics Form S-1, SEC EDGAR · as of
- Agility and Churchill XI reported expected gross proceeds of $465.1M from the business combination; the 13 October 2026 filing had described roughly $620M. Company announcement via Benzinga, 30 October 2026; Churchill XI 8-K, 13 October 2026 · as of
- Agility reported 2025 revenue of $1.8M and a net loss of $138.1M. Let's Data Science, citing company filings · as of
- Form 4 filings show awards on 4 November 2026 of 12,422,709 shares to Jonathan Hurst, 9,938,151 to Damion Shelton, 2,576,560 to Michael Beer and 347,790 to Margaret Johnson. SEC Form 4 filings dated 6 November 2026 · as of
- AGLT traded between $8.40 and $12.15 on its first day, 5 November 2026. The Robot Report, 5 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Agility Robotics, Inc. - Form S-1 - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Agility Robotics, Inc. - Form S-1 - FY2026 · sec.gov
- The Robot Report ·
- Agility Robotics Goes Public Via SPAC, Raising About $465 Million · letsdatascience.com ·
- Agility Robotics becomes first public pure-play humanoid robot maker · gcn.com
- Agility Robotics to Go Public Through $2.5 Billion Merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI · secure.businesswire.com ·
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