AKTS · Aktis Oncology
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $20.81
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $20.81, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 32.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $20.81, over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Preliminary NECTINIUM-2 data in the first quarter of 2027 showing clear tumor responses would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +147.3
- Operating margin (%)
- −889.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 493
All filed numbers
What Aktis Oncology reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3.9 | +147.3 | −889.8 |
| first filed | 3.4 | +111.4 | −854.0 |
| first filed | 3.2 | +123.0 | −703.6 |
| first filed | 1.6 | — | −1152.8 |
| first filed | 1.6 | — | −1309.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) | −29.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +6772.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 493 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 493 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 44.3 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 459 |
| Market value ($M) | 925 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 432 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 11.3 days of average trading to cover, −8.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $259K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $79.3M | $3.2M |
The thesis
Aktis Oncology's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The lead radiopharmaceutical, AKY-1189, has no efficacy data yet, and preliminary Phase 1b NECTINIUM-2 results, guided on 12 November 2026 for the first quarter of 2027, settle the case.
The balance sheet is not the weak point. Aktis reported $492.9 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026 and said it expects that to fund operations into 2029. The pressure comes from the shares and the spending rate. The shares closed at $16.28 on 12 November 2026, the session of the third-quarter report. That is 52.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $34.19 set on 30 June 2026, and the three-month change is −34.7%.
Bullish and bearish views on Aktis Oncology, Inc.
The bull case on Aktis Oncology, Inc. (AKTS), in brief: cash covers the guided window. The bear case: spending is rising fast.
Bull case
- Cash covers the guided window. The third-quarter 8-K of 12 November 2026 reports $492.9 million of cash and securities at 30 September 2026, against $226.8 million at 31 December 2025, and repeats the funding guidance into 2029.
- Lead program is on its timetable. On 12 November 2026 Aktis said NECTINIUM-2 dose escalation of AKY-1189, which targets the Nectin-4 protein, is ongoing and that backfill enrolment began at the 6 MBq dose level, with up to 30 patients. Preliminary data remain guided for the first quarter of 2027.
- Second program is widening. Aktis began backfill at 9 MBq in both PLUVICTO-naïve and PLUVICTO-experienced prostate cancer cohorts of the BActinium-1 trial of AKY-2519, with up to 30 patients per cohort. It started BActinium-2 in lung cancer and other B7-H3-expressing tumors in the third quarter of 2026, with preliminary AKY-2519 data guided for 2027.
- Partner revenue is growing. Collaboration revenue from the Eli Lilly research agreement was $3.9 million in the third quarter of 2026, against $1.6 million a year earlier, per the 8-K.
- The shares rebounded from their low. They closed at $14.59 on 2 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, and at $17.45 on 10 November 2026.
Bear case
- Spending is rising fast. Third-quarter research and development cost $32.1 million, against $16.5 million a year earlier. General and administrative cost was $6.5 million, against $3.3 million, per the 8-K of 12 November 2026.
- Losses are widening. The third-quarter net loss was $29.9 million, against $15.5 million a year earlier, and the nine-month loss was $72.4 million, against $48.6 million. The Associated Press reported a loss of 54 cents per share against the 47 cents expected in the Zacks consensus.
- The shares fell on the report. They closed at $16.28 on 12 November 2026, down from $17.04 on 11 November 2026, and below both the 50-day average of $18.74 and the 200-day average of $20.79 as of that close.
- Insiders sold into the decline. A Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 reported that chief medical officer Akos Czibere sold 12,500 shares at an average of $20.69 on 23 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a pre-arranged selling schedule.
- No efficacy data exists yet. The first clinical readout for the lead program is guided for the first quarter of 2027. A weak readout would test the shares further. A strong one would lift them quickly.
Price setup
The shares closed at $14.85 on 5 November 2026 and rose to $15.82 (6 November 2026), $16.37 (9 November 2026) and $17.45 (10 November 2026). They then eased to $17.04 on 11 November 2026 and $16.28 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low of $14.59 on 2 November 2026 is the lower marker, and the 52-week intraday high of $34.19 on 30 June 2026 is the upper one.
The 50-day average of closes is $18.74 and the 200-day average is $20.79, both as of 12 November 2026. The last close is below both. The reference close for the three-month change was $24.93 on 14 August 2026.
The third-quarter report repeated the company's timetable rather than changing it. Until the first-quarter 2027 data, price moves depend largely on trading sentiment about that timetable.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): End of the first quarter of 2027, the guided window for preliminary NECTINIUM-2 data on AKY-1189. The first clinical efficacy readout for the lead program decides whether the pipeline case holds.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): Guided nomination of development candidates for two early programs in the first quarter of 2027. Shows whether the pipeline beyond the two lead programs is advancing on the company's stated schedule.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): End of the first half of 2027, the guided window for first drug supply from the in-house manufacturing facility, pending IND amendments. In-house supply tests the company's ability to support expanding trials without delay.
What would change the view
A daily close above $20.81, over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Preliminary NECTINIUM-2 data in the first quarter of 2027 showing clear tumor responses would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Aktis trades as a single-company clinical event. Its path to the first-quarter 2027 readout depends on its own enrolment and disclosure more than on the market. Other radiopharmaceutical developers and small-capitalisation biotech shares are the nearest comparison group. The sample here is too small to state a measured sensitivity to the biotech index. Aktis has a research collaboration with Eli Lilly, which accounts for all of its reported revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Aktis reported $492.9 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026 and expects it to fund operations into 2029. Aktis third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss was $29.9 million versus $15.5 million a year earlier; research and development was $32.1 million versus $16.5 million; general and administrative was $6.5 million versus $3.3 million. Aktis third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Aktis said it is on track to present preliminary AKY-1189 NECTINIUM-2 data in the first quarter of 2027; backfill began at the 6 MBq dose level with up to 30 patients. Aktis third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- AKY-2519 BActinium-1 backfill began at 9 MBq in two cohorts of up to 30 patients each; BActinium-2 was initiated in the third quarter of 2026; preliminary data are guided for 2027. Aktis third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Collaboration revenue from the Eli Lilly research agreement was $3.9 million in the third quarter of 2026 versus $1.6 million a year earlier. Aktis third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter loss per share was 54 cents against a Zacks consensus loss of 47 cents. Associated Press earnings snapshot · as of
- Chief medical officer Akos Czibere sold 12,500 shares at an average of $20.69 on 23 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $16.28 on 12 November 2026, 52.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $34.19 set on 30 June 2026; the 52-week closing low was $14.59 on 2 November 2026. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Aktis Oncology, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Aktis Oncology Reports Third-Quarter Financial Results and Highlights Clinical Trial Progress · biospace.com
- Aktis: Q3 Earnings Snapshot · wtop.com
Related · shared themes
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics
Oruka Therapeutics is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its psoriasis antibody ORKA-001 cleared skin completely…
SMMT
Summit Therapeutics
Summit Therapeutics' case rests on FDA approval of ivonescimab in EGFR-mutant lung cancer by the 14 November 2026 goal date. The agency's…
XNCR
Xencor
Xencor's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 on XmAb819's 45.5% confirmed response rate in advanced kidney cancer and cash funding…
ZLAB
Zai Lab
Zai Lab's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on zoci, its DLL3 cancer drug with an 81.8% first-line…
See also · stocks to watch