SNDX · Syndax Pharmaceuticals
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $10.93
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $10.93, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 52.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $10.93, over the $9.37–$9.59 range of closes since 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. BEAT AML or SAVE data at ASH showing higher response rates than the company's earlier reports would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 2 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 83.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +81.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −50.3
All filed numbers
What Syndax Pharmaceuticals reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 83.3 | +81.6 | −50.3 |
| first filed | 72.8 | +91.8 | −54.9 |
| first filed | 64.9 | +223.6 | −52.7 |
| first filed | 68.7 | +794.9 | −91.0 |
| first filed | 45.9 | +267.0 | −125.2 |
| first filed | 38.0 | +984.5 | −182.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −210 | −49.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −177 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 427 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 26 February 2026 | 38.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | 39.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −17.2 |
| Market value ($M) | 844 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 20.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, −1.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $114K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $2.9M |
The thesis
Syndax Pharmaceuticals is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Sales of its leukemia drug Revuforj are rising, but the shares closed at $9.54 on 12 November 2026, down 51.9% in three months. The frontline leukemia results at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting on 13 December 2026 (BEAT AML) and 14 December 2026 (SAVE) settle whether the growth earns a higher price.
Revuforj net revenue was $60.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 90% from a year earlier and 11% from the second quarter. Total revenue was $83.3 million, up 82% (Syndax results, 2 November 2026). The market has priced a much lower value than the revenue trend alone implies: the shares sit 62.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.59 set on 25 March 2026.
Closes since 6 November 2026 have held between $9.49 and $9.59, just above the 52-week closing low of $9.37 on 5 November 2026. The shares stopped falling after the report but have not recovered.
Bullish and bearish views on Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
The bull case on Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SNDX), in brief: Revuforj sales keep climbing. The bear case: the shares fell hard after good revenue.
Bull case
- Revuforj sales keep climbing. Third-quarter 2026 net revenue was $60.7 million, up 11% from the second quarter. New patients rose about 20% and total prescriptions about 13% from the second quarter (Syndax results, 2 November 2026).
- The partnered drug is growing too. Incyte reported $67.4 million of Niktimvo net revenue in the third quarter of 2026, up 47% from a year earlier. Syndax booked $22.6 million of collaboration revenue from its profit share.
- Frontline data arrive in a defined window. Syndax has a BEAT AML oral presentation on 13 December 2026 and a SAVE oral presentation on 14 December 2026, plus an investor event the same morning (company announcement, 4 November 2026). The company has 19 accepted abstracts, seven of them oral.
- Cash covers the guided spending. Cash and investments were $551.1 million on 30 September 2026. Syndax guided full-year 2026 research and development plus selling and administrative expense of about $400 million, excluding about $50 million of non-cash stock compensation.
- Analysts remain above the price. H.C. Wainwright kept a Buy rating and lowered its target to $36 (company news, 3 November 2026). The target is well above the $9.54 close.
Bear case
- The shares fell hard after good revenue. A director sold 8,000 shares at $14.21 on 29 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4, filed 30 October 2026). The close was $9.37 on 5 November 2026, and the 50-day average of the adjusted closes is $15.50.
- The axatilimab timeline slipped. The third-quarter release lists the Phase 2 chronic graft-versus-host disease topline for the first quarter of 2027 and the Phase 3 for early 2028. The Phase 2 lung-disease trial had already missed its primary endpoint (company release, 12 October 2026).
- Spending is rising faster than sales. Third-quarter research and development expense was $67.5 million, up from $56.3 million a year earlier, driven by frontline leukemia trials. The net loss was $49.4 million, or $0.55 a share.
- The balance sheet carries a deficit. The stockholders' deficit was $17.2 million and total liabilities were $709.9 million on 30 September 2026, against $551.1 million of cash and investments.
- Targets keep coming down. H.C. Wainwright's $36 target is its latest cut after the third-quarter report (company news, 3 November 2026).
- Finance leadership changed. Aaron Ondrey became chief financial officer on 9 November 2026, succeeding Keith Goldan, who is retiring. Syndax granted him an inducement stock award (company news, 9 November 2026).
Price setup
The last close was $9.54 on 12 November 2026. The 3-month change is −51.9%, measured from the $19.84 close of 14 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $9.37 on 5 November 2026.
The 50-day average of the adjusted closes is $15.50 and the 200-day average is $19.78, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares trade far below both, and each sits well above the price as overhead reference.
State Street filed a Schedule 13G, a report of large share ownership, on 11 November 2026 (company news). The one director sale in the recent Form 4 filings was a pre-arranged plan sale on 29 October 2026. The next scheduled events are clinical presentations on 13 December 2026 and 14 December 2026, not earnings.
Catalysts ahead
- 12 December 2026: 68th ASH Annual Meeting opens in New Orleans; Syndax has 19 accepted abstracts, seven for oral presentation. Revuforj and Niktimvo data go to hematology specialists, and competing menin-inhibitor data appear alongside.
- 13 December 2026: BEAT AML oral presentation: final analysis of revumenib with azacitidine and venetoclax in newly diagnosed AML. Frontline response data bear on whether revumenib can move into earlier-line leukemia care, the main driver of the growth case.
- 14 December 2026: SAVE oral presentation on the all-oral revumenib, venetoclax and decitabine/cedazuridine combination, and a Syndax investor event at 7:00 AM Central. The second frontline dataset and management commentary on trial timing and spending.
- 31 March 2027 (est.): Phase 2 axatilimab topline in chronic graft-versus-host disease, guided for the first quarter of 2027. The remaining axatilimab trials carry the franchise's expansion case after the lung-disease trial missed its primary endpoint.
What would change the view
A daily close above $10.93, over the $9.37–$9.59 range of closes since 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. BEAT AML or SAVE data at ASH showing higher response rates than the company's earlier reports would point the same way.
What it trades with
Syndax trades with small and mid-cap biotechnology, which reacts to interest-rate moves and to clinical-trial outcomes across the group. Its direct comparison is Incyte, which records Niktimvo net sales and shares the profit with Syndax.
Revuforj competes with other menin inhibitors in leukemia treatment, so competitor data at ASH on 12 December to 15 December 2026 can move the shares independently of Syndax's own results.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Revuforj net revenue was $60.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 90% from a year earlier and 11% from the second quarter; total revenue was $83.3 million, up 82% from a year earlier. Syndax third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Incyte reported Niktimvo net revenue of $67.4 million in the third quarter of 2026; Syndax recorded $22.6 million of collaboration revenue from its profit share. Syndax third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash and investments were $551.1 million on 30 September 2026; third-quarter net loss was $49.4 million, or $0.55 a share; research and development expense was $67.5 million. Syndax third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Syndax guided full-year 2026 research and development plus selling and administrative expense of about $400 million, excluding about $50 million of non-cash stock compensation. Syndax third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- The BEAT AML final analysis is an oral presentation on 13 December 2026 and the SAVE update is an oral presentation on 14 December 2026 at the 68th ASH Annual Meeting in New Orleans; Syndax hosts an investor event on 14 December 2026. Syndax ASH 2026 abstract announcement · as of
- Director Dennis Podlesak exercised options for 8,000 shares at $11.81 and sold 8,000 shares at $14.21 on 29 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 30 October 2026 · as of
- H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating and lowered its price target to $36 after the third-quarter report. Company news headline, 3 November 2026 · as of
- The phase 2 axatilimab trial in chronic graft-versus-host disease is guided for topline in the first quarter of 2027 and the phase 3 for early 2028. Syndax third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
Sources
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