KURA · Kura Oncology
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $9.78
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $9.78, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 31.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $9.78, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 22.8
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +10.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 98.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −326.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −89.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 482
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.9
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −12.5
All filed numbers
What Kura Oncology reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 22.8 | +10.1 | 98.4 | −326.9 |
| first filed | 20.9 | +36.5 | 98.8 | −349.8 |
| first filed | 18.3 | +29.5 | 98.6 | −431.5 |
| first filed | 17.3 | — | — | −497.6 |
| first filed | 20.8 | — | — | −385.5 |
| first filed | 15.3 | — | — | −475.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −70.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −293 | −70.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −85.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −89.1 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 492 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 9.8 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 482 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +39.8% on a year | 444 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 14.5 |
| Inventory ($M) | 5.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 18.0 |
| Market value ($M) | 714 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 232 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 39.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −12.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.6 days of average trading to cover, −0.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.2M | $1.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2.4M | $3.3M |
The thesis
Sales of Kura Oncology's leukemia drug KOMZIFTI passed the bar the case set. Even so, the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. Three things weigh on them: a shelf registration of undisclosed size filed on 10 November 2026, a lower 2026 collaboration-revenue forecast, and a price below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Data from the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting, 12 December to 15 December 2026, is the next test.
On 10 November 2026 Kura reported third-quarter KOMZIFTI net product revenue of $13.9 million, up 53% from the second quarter's $9.1 million. About 150 new patients started the drug, up 30%, and total prescriptions rose more than 65% to over 420. The market barely moved. The shares closed at $7.57 on 10 November 2026 and at $7.73 on 11 November 2026, the first session after the report.
The rating is Low for three reasons. The financing news points to more capital being raised. The partner-revenue line shrank. The shares have not recovered the early-November break. At $7.73 on 11 November 2026, the price reflects dilution and funding risk more than launch growth.
Bullish and bearish views on Kura Oncology, Inc.
The bull case on Kura Oncology, Inc. (KURA), in brief: launch sales are compounding quarterly. The bear case: a shelf registration is now on file.
Bull case
- Launch sales are compounding quarterly. Product revenue went from $5.8 million in the first quarter to $9.1 million in the second and $13.9 million in the third. Kura said on 10 November 2026 that KOMZIFTI kept a majority share of new patient starts among menin inhibitors for relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutant acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
- Runway now extends past Phase 3 topline. Cash and short-term investments were $492.1 million on 30 September 2026. Kura said on 10 November 2026 that its resources fund operations beyond the initial topline results of its Phase 3 KOMET-017 trial, expected in 2028.
- New lender capacity of up to $300 million. Kura announced a financing with Oberland Capital on 10 November 2026: up to $275 million of debt and $25 million of equity. It received $55 million at closing.
- Eight ASH abstracts are accepted, four of them oral. The oral presentations include KOMET-007 (ziftomenib with quizartinib and chemotherapy in newly diagnosed AML) and KOMET-008 (ziftomenib with gilteritinib in relapsed AML). Kura listed both in its 10 November 2026 release.
- The chief executive bought shares. Troy Wilson bought 100,000 shares in the open market at $12.39 on 24 August 2026, according to his SEC Form 4.
Bear case
- A shelf registration is now on file. Kura filed a shelf prospectus for securities offerings on 10 November 2026 without disclosing a size. That gives it the means to issue equity at short notice.
- Collaboration revenue guidance was cut. Kura lowered its 2026 collaboration-revenue guide to $40 million to $45 million on 10 November 2026, below the $45 million to $55 million range cited in an Earnings Whispers preview. Third-quarter collaboration revenue was $8.9 million, against $11.8 million in the second quarter and $20.8 million a year earlier.
- Losses still dwarf product sales. The third-quarter net loss was $70.2 million, against $13.9 million of KOMZIFTI revenue (10 November 2026 results). Cash fell from $667.2 million on 31 December 2025 to $492.1 million on 30 September 2026.
- The new debt carries a sales royalty. The Oberland loans pay 6.95% to 8.95% interest plus a single-digit royalty on U.S. KOMZIFTI net sales, capped at 20% of total loan principal (10 November 2026 release).
- Officers sold in late September. SEC Form 4 filings show six officers selling at $10.50 to $10.83 between 24 September 2026 and 29 September 2026. Among them, the chief medical officer sold 41,250 shares and the chief commercial officer sold 32,450, part of it under Rule 10b5-1 plans.
Price setup
The shares closed at $7.73 on 11 November 2026, 44.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $13.90 set on 25 August 2026. They are down 23.4% over three months from a $10.09 close on 13 August 2026 (adjusted daily closes).
The break came before the report. The shares closed at $9.88 on 3 November 2026, $7.61 on 4 November 2026 and at the 52-week closing low of $6.80 on 5 November 2026. No company news explains the move. The closes since then, $7.27 to $7.73, have recovered only part of it.
On 11 November 2026 the 50-day moving average of adjusted closes was $10.39 and the 200-day was $9.78. Both are above the price. A return above the 200-day average would put the shares back inside the range they held before 4 November 2026. The 5 November 2026 closing low of $6.80 is the floor of the current range.
Catalysts ahead
- 12 December 2026: ASH Annual Meeting opens (through 15 December 2026), with eight ziftomenib abstracts including KOMET-007 and KOMET-008 oral presentations; Kura investor webcast on 15 December 2026. The first ziftomenib data with FLT3 inhibitors shows whether combination use can widen KOMZIFTI's market beyond relapsed disease, and whether the data is strong enough to move shares now below both moving averages.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Kura Oncology fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. A fourth straight quarter of KOMZIFTI revenue growth after $13.9 million in the third quarter would show the launch still accelerating; the report also shows whether the shelf registration has been used.
What would change the view
A daily close above $9.78, the 200-day moving average of adjusted closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Kura trades with menin-inhibitor peers, chiefly Syndax (revumenib) and Johnson & Johnson's bleximenib programme. Frontline data from either bears on KOMZIFTI's long-term market. Kyowa Kirin shares U.S. ziftomenib economics with Kura and supplies the collaboration payments. Oberland's royalty ties part of the lender's return to U.S. KOMZIFTI sales. Caspian Therapeutics, Kura's separately financed menin-inhibitor company for diabetes, closed a $50 million financing led by BVF Partners (10 November 2026 release) and does not drive near-term revenue. Small-cap oncology shares tend to move with sector risk appetite around data meetings such as ASH.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- KOMZIFTI third-quarter 2026 net product revenue was $13.9 million, up 53% from the second quarter, with about 150 new patient starts (+30%) and more than 420 total prescriptions (+65%). Kura Oncology third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $22.8 million, collaboration revenue $8.9 million and net loss $70.2 million, against a $74.1 million loss a year earlier. Kura Oncology third-quarter 2026 results release and 10-Q · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $492.1 million on 30 September 2026, down from $667.2 million on 31 December 2025. Kura Oncology third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Kura entered a financing with Oberland Capital of up to $300 million ($275 million debt, $25 million equity) and received $55 million at closing. Kura Oncology third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Kura set 2026 collaboration-revenue guidance at $40 million to $45 million and kept 2027 and 2028 guidance at $90 million to $110 million each. Kura Oncology third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Kura filed a shelf prospectus for securities offerings; the size was not disclosed. Kura Oncology SEC shelf filing, company news · as of
- Six Kura officers sold shares at $10.50 to $10.83 between 24 September 2026 and 29 September 2026, including 41,250 by the chief medical officer. SEC Form 4 filings dated 25 September 2026 and 29 September 2026 · as of
- CEO Troy Wilson bought 100,000 Kura shares in the open market at $12.39. SEC Form 4 filed 24 August 2026 · as of
Sources
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