ARCT · Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.15
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
31.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.15, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 2.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.15, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove the lag call wrong. A dated FDA meeting or Phase 3 design for ARCT-810, or a dated ARCT-032 Phase 3 go decision, would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 18.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −50.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 185
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.8
All filed numbers
What Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 18.3 | +6.7 | −50.2 |
| first filed | 3.0 | −89.5 | −863.3 |
| first filed | 2.1 | −93.0 | −1403.7 |
| first filed | 7.2 | −68.4 | −435.1 |
| first filed | 17.2 | −58.8 | −96.3 |
| first filed | 28.3 | −43.2 | −41.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −7.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −87.2 | −7.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −62.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 185 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 185 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −96.2% on a year | 0.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 169 |
| Market value ($M) | 241 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 56.1 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 1.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.4 days of average trading to cover, +1.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Arcturus Therapeutics is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. The company has money into 2028, but it has not dated the two events that decide the case: an FDA path for ARCT-810 (an ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency, or OTC deficiency, liver therapy) and a Phase 3 decision for ARCT-032 (a cystic fibrosis lung therapy).
The third-quarter report of 5 November 2026 showed cash and equivalents of $184.8 million at 30 September 2026 and a cash runway "of over two years through year end 2028", per the company's 8-K. Revenue was $18.3 million, which includes a one-time $12.0 million termination payment from CSL Seqirus. Net loss was $7.4 million, or $(0.26) per share.
The shares closed at $10.87 on 4 November 2026 and $9.36 on 5 November 2026, the session of the report. They closed at $9.31 on 11 November 2026, 48.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.96 set on 17 September 2026. The next dated readouts sit in 2027.
Bullish and bearish views on Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
The bull case on Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT), in brief: funding now reaches 2028. The bear case: the ARCT-810 regulatory path still has no date.
Bull case
- Funding now reaches 2028. The 5 November 2026 release cites a cash runway of over two years through year-end 2028, with $184.8 million in cash and equivalents at 30 September 2026.
- A next-generation candidate has a schedule. Arcturus plans Phase 2 dosing of ARCT-2601, its first LUNAR 2.0 medicine, in the first quarter of 2027, with top-line data in the second half of 2027. The 5 November 2026 release says it follows FDA feedback from a June 2026 meeting and will run within the ongoing ARCT-810 study.
- ARCT-810 showed biomarker activity. Interim Phase 2 data presented in September 2026 showed biomarker activity at the 0.3 and 0.5 mg/kg doses, per the company's third-quarter release.
- Vaccine rights are back with Arcturus. The CSL collaboration ended on 3 August 2026 and returned global KOSTAIVE and infectious-disease rights to the company. KOSTAIVE sales continue in Japan for the 2026/2027 season through Meiji Seika Pharma.
- Sell-side support continues. Roth Capital Partners maintained its Buy rating on 7 November 2026, two days after the quarterly report.
Bear case
- The ARCT-810 regulatory path still has no date. The company had guided a regulatory plan to the third quarter. The 5 November 2026 release reports the September interim data but names no FDA meeting or Phase 3 design.
- The ARCT-032 decision lost its calendar quarter. The August release put the cystic fibrosis Phase 3 decision in the fourth quarter of 2026. The 5 November 2026 release says only that the decision comes before full Cohort 4 data, which are planned for the second quarter of 2027.
- Enrollment completes late in the year. Arcturus expects ARCT-032 Cohort 4 enrollment to finish by year-end 2026, so a Phase 3 decision before 2027 depends on the last patients being dosed.
- Revenue is falling without the vaccine partnership. The 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 reports nine-month revenue of $23.317 million against $74.835 million a year earlier.
- Cash is declining. Cash and equivalents were $184.8 million at 30 September 2026, against $230.9 million at year-end 2025, per the company's 8-K.
Price setup
The shares closed at $9.31 on 11 November 2026. That is 22 cents above the 200-day average of $9.09 and well under the 50-day average of $12.74, both from adjusted daily closes as of 11 November 2026.
The report-day close of $9.36 on 5 November 2026 followed a close of $10.87 on 4 November 2026. A rebound to $10.35 on 6 November 2026 faded to $9.49 on 9 November 2026, $9.39 on 10 November 2026 and $9.31 on 11 November 2026, so the post-report drop has not been recovered.
The 52-week closing low is $5.53 on 24 July 2026, and the three-month change is +18.4% from a close of $7.86 on 13 August 2026. The shares remain well above their summer low, so the case rests on whether the company sets dates, not on whether the shares have already collapsed. The 200-day average is the nearest level beneath the shares; a close below it would put the shares back in the range they traded in before the 23 September 2026 data release.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected completion of ARCT-032 cystic fibrosis Phase 2 Cohort 4 enrollment. Enrollment completion comes before the Phase 3 decision, which the company has not dated.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): ARCT-2601 Phase 2 dosing planned to begin in Q1 2027 within the amended ARCT-810 study. Dosing would show the LUNAR 2.0 candidate advancing on the guided schedule.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): ARCT-032 full Cohort 4 data, planned for Q2 2027. The readout follows the Phase 3 decision and bears on the Thermo Fisher Scientific contribution that a Phase 3 start would trigger.
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.15, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove the lag call wrong. A dated FDA meeting or Phase 3 design for ARCT-810, or a dated ARCT-032 Phase 3 go decision, would point the same way.
What it trades with
Arcturus trades with clinical-stage messenger RNA (mRNA) and rare-disease biotech names and with the small-cap biotech index. On 20 August 2026 Benzinga reported that Moderna fell more than 11% premarket after a cancer vaccine headline, which shows sector news moves the group.
The company's own catalysts are program-specific: the ARCT-810 FDA path, the ARCT-032 Phase 3 decision and ARCT-2601 dosing. The 23 September 2026 data release and the 6 August 2026 CSL settlement moved the shares more than index moves did.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Cash and equivalents were $184.8 million at 30 September 2026 versus $230.9 million at year-end 2025; the company cites a cash runway of over two years through year-end 2028. Arcturus Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 2026 revenue was $18.3 million including a $12.0 million CSL Seqirus termination payment; net loss was $7.4 million, or $(0.26) per share. Arcturus Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Nine-month 2026 revenue was $23.317 million versus $74.835 million a year earlier; the CSL collaboration ended on 3 August 2026. Arcturus Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- ARCT-032 full Cohort 4 data are planned for Q2 2027, with a Phase 3 decision before then; enrollment is expected to finish by year-end 2026. Arcturus Q3 2026 results and pipeline update · as of
- ARCT-2601 Phase 2 dosing is planned for Q1 2027 with top-line data in H2 2027. Arcturus Q3 2026 results and pipeline update · as of
- The shares closed at $10.87 on 4 November 2026 and $9.36 on 5 November 2026, the day of the Q3 report. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
- Roth Capital Partners maintained its Buy rating on Arcturus Therapeutics. Company news, 7 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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