CRDL · Cardiol Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1.30
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1.30, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 44.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1.30, about the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A MAVERIC topline guided earlier than mid-2027 would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
The business · as of
Cardiol Therapeutics is a pre-revenue Canadian drug developer. Its lead product, CardiolRx, a cannabidiol formulation, is in a Phase III trial for recurrent pericarditis. It funds work by selling shares; the 30 September 2026 cash balance was C$29.2 million.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 23 September 2026 Cardiol expanded the MAVERIC trial to up to 150 patients and moved topline from the first quarter of 2027 to mid-2027; on 3 November 2026 it announced a US$75 million at-the-market program.
- What follows for the company
- Quarterly net loss rose 34% to C$13.32 million for the three months to 30 September 2026; US$4.55 million was raised under the program after quarter-end, and runway is guided into the first quarter of 2028.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Kiniksa (KNSA), which markets the approved recurrent pericarditis drug rilonacept, remains the incumbent competitor; no customers or suppliers are named in company news.
What the price assumes · as of
No valuation line is available for this foreign filer, so no multiple is given. The price at the 13 November 2026 close of $1.00 rests on C$29.2 million of cash at 30 September 2026 funding the trial, and on MAVERIC showing a placebo-controlled reduction in pericarditis recurrence by mid-2027.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Cardiol Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 1.3 days of average trading to cover, −7.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
Linked companies · as of
- Competitors:
- KNSA
The thesis
Cardiol Therapeutics is more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its one decisive event, the MAVERIC Phase III topline in recurrent pericarditis, is guided for mid-2027, and the company has begun selling shares under a US$75 million at-the-market program with Jefferies LLC, announced 3 November 2026. At-the-market means the company sells stock into the open market at prevailing prices, at its own discretion.
The Q3 2026 interim report, filed on Form 6-K on 12 November 2026, shows the first use of that program. Secondary summaries of the filing (Panabee and rallies.ai, 12 November 2026) report US$4.55 million of gross proceeds after quarter-end and cash and equivalents of C$29.2 million at 30 September 2026, up 36% from year-end 2025. Cardiol guided on 23 September 2026 to cash lasting into the first quarter of 2028.
The shares closed at $1.00 on 13 November 2026. That is 57.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $2.34 set on 9 September 2026. The three-month change is −44.4%, measured from the $1.80 close on 17 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Cardiol Therapeutics Inc.
The bull case on Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (CRDL), in brief: cash covers the trial. The bear case: share sales have started.
Bull case
- Cash covers the trial. Cardiol said on 23 September 2026 that existing capital funds MAVERIC to completion, with cash lasting into the first quarter of 2028. Cash and equivalents were C$29.2 million at 30 September 2026, per summaries of the Q3 6-K.
- Cash burn is contained. Operating cash use for the nine months to 30 September 2026 fell 12% to C$16.47 million, according to rallies.ai's summary of the filing dated 12 November 2026.
- Enrollment ran ahead of plan. MAVERIC reached its original 110-patient target, and on 23 September 2026 the company expanded the trial to up to 150 patients after a blinded review showed fewer recurrences than expected.
- Phase II results are peer-reviewed. The recurrent pericarditis Phase II data appeared in the Journal of the American Heart Association, announced 14 July 2026, with sustained reductions in pain and inflammation.
Bear case
- Share sales have started. US$4.55 million of gross proceeds came in under the at-the-market program after 30 September 2026, per Panabee and rallies.ai on 12 November 2026. The program allows up to US$75 million, and the shares closed at $1.00 on 13 November 2026.
- Losses are widening. The net loss for the three months to 30 September 2026 was C$13.32 million, up 34% from a year earlier, according to rallies.ai. Panabee attributes part of the rise to a non-cash loss on warrant liabilities, alongside higher general and research costs.
- The readout moved later. Topline went from the first quarter of 2027 to mid-2027 on 23 September 2026, so no efficacy event falls inside the three-month window.
- Low recurrences cut both ways. A blinded review cannot separate a drug effect from a milder patient group, and the shortfall in events forced the expansion to up to 150 patients on 23 September 2026.
- An approved drug sets the bar. Rilonacept has been approved for recurrent pericarditis since 2021, so CardiolRx must show a placebo-controlled benefit and win a commercial position.
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.00 on 13 November 2026. The 50-day average of closes is $1.42 and the 200-day average of closes is higher than the last close, so the shares trade below both.
The 52-week closing low is $0.93, set on 20 March 2026. Closes from 6 November to 13 November 2026 ran between $0.99 and $1.04, a narrow range about 7.5% above that low at the last close.
The September rally to the $2.34 intraday high on 9 September 2026 has been fully reversed. Company news does not identify a single cause for the decline; the at-the-market announcement on 3 November 2026 and the first proceeds reported on 12 November 2026 add to the supply of shares the market must absorb.
Across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day with a price of at least $3, the 63-session return spread was 27% in 2026. Cardiol trades near $1, below that price floor, so those measured results do not describe it directly.
Catalysts ahead
- mid-2027 (guided): MAVERIC Phase III topline results. The only event that settles whether CardiolRx reduces pericarditis recurrence; the guide moved from the first quarter of 2027 on 23 September 2026.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1.30, about the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A MAVERIC topline guided earlier than mid-2027 would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Cardiol is a single-asset, pre-revenue cardiology developer, so its price follows its own trial and financing news more than the broad market. Small-cap biotech funding conditions affect it through the cost of raising equity. The Nasdaq and Toronto Stock Exchange lines move together apart from currency effects.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Cardiol entered an at-the-market sales agreement with Jefferies LLC to sell up to US$75 million of common shares on Nasdaq at prevailing prices; the company is not obliged to sell any. Cardiol Therapeutics press release · as of
- Net loss for the three months ended 30 September 2026 was C$13.32 million, up 34% from a year earlier; nine-month operating cash use fell 12% to C$16.47 million. rallies.ai summary of Q3 2026 interim report (Form 6-K) · as of
- Cash and cash equivalents were about C$29.2 million at 30 September 2026, up 36% from year-end 2025. Q3 2026 interim report, Form 6-K (via Panabee and rallies.ai summaries) · as of
- US$4.55 million of gross proceeds was raised under the 2026 at-the-market offering after quarter-end. rallies.ai and Panabee summaries of Q3 2026 6-K · as of
- MAVERIC Phase III reached its original 110-patient target; the trial is expanding to up to 150 patients after a blinded review showed fewer-than-expected recurrences. Cardiol Therapeutics press release · as of
- MAVERIC topline guidance moved from the first quarter of 2027 to mid-2027; cash runway is guided into the first quarter of 2028. Cardiol Therapeutics press release · as of
- Close of $1.00 on 13 November 2026, 57.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $2.34 set 9 September 2026; three-month price change −44.4%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Cardiol Therapeutics (CRDL) Q3 2026 Earnings: Net Loss Widens 34% · panabee.com ·
- Cardiol Therapeutics' three-month net loss widens 34% to CAD 13.32 million · rallies.ai ·
- Cardiol Therapeutics achieves Phase III MAVERIC enrollment target ahead of schedule and expands pivotal trial · placera.se ·
- Finviz
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