Watchlist
VSTM · Verastem, Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Current thesis
Verastem’s commercial launch supports a VS-7375 clinical revaluation thesis, tested by the newly scheduled 2026-10-14 efficacy update. The case requires reported tumor responses and a daily close above the 2026-09-02 reference close of $8.02 before a weekly close below $6.70 invalidates it.
Kill line
A weekly close below $6.70 breaks the post-Q2 price structure; 2026-10-14 passing without the promised VS-7375 efficacy disclosure separately invalidates the scheduled-catalyst premise.
Pick status
Open commitment catalyst 6d agoscored if the kill line above fires How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for VSTM —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for Verastem, Inc. (VSTM): Verastem’s commercial launch supports a VS-7375 clinical revaluation thesis, tested by the newly scheduled 2026-10-14 efficacy update. The case requires reported tumor responses and a daily close above the 2026-09-02 reference close of $8.02 before a weekly close below $6.70 invalidates it.
Kill line: A weekly close below $6.70 breaks the post-Q2 price structure; 2026-10-14 passing without the promised VS-7375 efficacy disclosure separately invalidates the scheduled-catalyst premise.
Most recent dated event on file: — catalyst 6d ago.
Current Thesis
Verastem’s commercial launch supports a VS-7375 clinical revaluation thesis; the newly scheduled 2026-10-14 efficacy update must support recovery above the 2026-09-02 market close of $8.02 before a weekly close below $6.70 breaks the structure. The company’s 2026-09-08 announcement replaces an unspecified October window with a firm date for initial efficacy and updated safety results across pancreatic, lung and colorectal cancers. It supplies a deadline, not new response data. Verastem announcement, 2026-09-08.
The narrative is maturing — this is an inference from the retreat to the 2026-09-11 reference close of $7.32 despite the dated catalyst announcement, following the $8.02 close recorded on 2026-09-02. The clinical thesis remains unresolved; the latest price evidence no longer supports the previous note’s description of an extending advance.
Bullish and bearish views on Verastem, Inc.
The model's bull view on Verastem, Inc. (VSTM), in brief: Commercial revenue supports the story. Verastem reported $25.1 million of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK net product revenue for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. This establishes a commercial contribution alongside the investigational program; subsequent quarterly product revenue at or… The bear view: Early biomarkers leave efficacy unresolved. Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Commercial revenue supports the story. Verastem reported $25.1 million of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK net product revenue for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. This establishes a commercial contribution alongside the investigational program; subsequent quarterly product revenue at or below that figure would undermine the launch-growth component. Q2 results, 2026-08-06.
- Clinical development has advanced. First patients were dosed in TARGET-D 201 on 2026-06-16, TARGET-D 202 on 2026-07-22 and TARGET-D 203 on 2026-07-28, according to the 2026-08-06 business update. These are enrollment milestones; a clinical hold or discontinuation would invalidate the inference of continuing development progress. Q2 business update.
Bear Case
- Early biomarkers leave efficacy unresolved. The 2026-06-23 company update reported that 93% of 14 metastatic pancreatic cancer patients receiving 900 mg daily achieved a greater-than-50% reduction in the CA19-9 tumor marker at the 2026-06-12 cutoff. That small sample does not establish comparative efficacy, and the reported measurement is a biomarker reduction rather than a tumor response rate.
- the 2026-08-06 release presented $201.4 million pro forma, including financing expected to close on 2026-08-28. The pro forma figure does not establish that closing occurred. Q2 financial results.
- Momentum has cooled before results. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 58.1 on 2026-09-11, versus 71.4 in the 2026-09-02 snapshot cited in the prior published note. The latest adjusted-price snapshot still reports a three-month gain of 78.5%; neither observation establishes how investors are positioned.
Setup & Price Structure
The 2026-09-11 adjusted reference close was $7.32. The previous published note identified a post-Q2 shelf using the 2026-08-07 close of $6.74 and the 2026-08-21 close of $6.89, with $6.70 as its thesis-break threshold. The latest close remains above that threshold and below the 2026-09-02 reference close of $8.02.
The research case requires disclosed clinical efficacy accompanied by a daily close above $8.02; a weekly close below $6.70 invalidates it first. This is a conditional market interpretation, not evidence that the clinical result will succeed.
Attention is visibly clustered around the company’s scheduled appearances on 2026-09-08, 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-14, announced on 2026-09-02. Conference scheduling establishes concentrated publicity, but supplies no measurement of retail participation, short exposure or institutional flows. No moving-average observation is available to quantify extension. September conference announcement.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-10-14 — VS-7375 investor event. Beyond the next 30 days, the thesis-defining webcast is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Eastern and covers initial efficacy plus updated safety and tolerability across the cancer cohorts. The September announcement does not provide the forthcoming response rates. Verastem announcement, 2026-09-08.
Elapsed catalysts
- 2026-09-14 — H.C. Wainwright conference. The company calendar lists a presentation at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. This is the remaining announced conference inside the next 30 days; the calendar does not designate it as a clinical-data release. Company events calendar. (passed 6d ago)
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the post-Q2 shelf would end the market thesis: a weekly close below $6.70 is the observable break. The clinical deadline is now 2026-10-14; that date passing without the promised efficacy disclosure would separately defeat the scheduled-catalyst premise. Conversely, reported tumor responses accompanied by a daily close above the 2026-09-02 reference close of $8.02 would satisfy the stated revaluation case, without establishing superiority over competing drugs.
Correlation Notes
This is a single-name clinical setup. The 2026-09-08 announcement concerns Verastem’s own TARGET-D program, while the 2026-09-11 price snapshot contains no paired sector-return series. There is insufficient evidence to attribute the move to a broader oncology rally or publish a numerical correlation. The oncology theme tag describes the business; it does not establish shared market behavior.
Notes
- AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK holds accelerated approval (FDA, 2025-05-08); the RAMP 301 confirmatory topline is guided to mid-2027.
- The Oberland facility is a royalty financing secured against AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA revenue: non-dilutive to shareholders, but an encumbrance on the only revenue-generating asset.
- Runway is guided into H2 2027 on a pro forma $201.4M cash position, while Phase 3 enrollment is targeted to begin H1 2027.
- October 2026 VS-7375 data is preliminary Phase 2 at roughly 20 patients per tumor type, cohort sizes that do not support cross-trial superiority claims.
- 2026 reporting cadence has been 2026-05-07 (Q1) and 2026-08-06 (Q2); the Q3 date is not yet confirmed by the company.
- Single commercial product in a rare indication: quarterly revenue is sensitive to a small number of prescribing centers and to gross-to-net adjustments.
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