VSTM · Verastem

The thesis

Verastem's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Its KRAS G12D drug VS-7375 is funded into the first half of 2028, but ovarian-cancer revenue missed forecasts and a $100 million at-the-market share program adds supply. Two things settle it: whether the first-line pancreatic Phase 3 opens by year-end 2026, and fourth-quarter revenue.

The rating is Low because the 5 November 2026 third-quarter report weakened the commercial half of the case. Net product revenue from the AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK was $24.0 million, down from $25.1 million in the second quarter. The consensus was $26.078 million, per Benzinga on 5 November 2026. The adjusted loss of $0.72 a share compared with a $0.46 consensus. The company credited refills for growth from $11.2 million a year earlier and said fewer new patient starts partly offset it.

The shares closed at $9.09 on 11 November 2026, up from $8.41 on 6 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The rebound recovers part of the post-report drop but adds no new business fact. No company announcement since 5 November 2026 has changed the Phase 3 schedule or the revenue picture.

Bullish and bearish views on Verastem, Inc.

The bull case on Verastem, Inc. (VSTM), in brief: cash now covers three pivotal trials. The bear case: ovarian revenue fell and missed forecasts.

Bull case

• Cash now covers three pivotal trials. Cash and investments were $172.8 million on 30 September 2026, or $422.8 million pro forma for the October offering. The company says this, with expected CO-PACK revenue, funds operations into the first half of 2028, including the start of three Phase 3 studies (third-quarter release, 5 November 2026).
• The pancreatic Phase 3 is on schedule. On 5 November 2026 the company reiterated that TARGET-D 301, the three-arm first-line metastatic pancreatic trial agreed with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), opens by year-end 2026. First patients in the lung and colorectal Phase 3 trials are planned for the first half of 2027.
• Pancreatic response rate is competitive. The 14 October 2026 TARGET-D 101 update reported a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 50% (4 of 8) in second-line pancreatic cancer at 900 mg once daily. The ORR was 41% (9 of 22) in second-line-or-later patients, with 86% disease control (data cutoff 7 October 2026).
• A device partner joins the pancreatic program. On 28 October 2026 Novocure and Verastem announced a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement. The study will test Novocure's Tumor Treating Fields therapy with chemotherapy and VS-7375 in pancreatic cancer.
• Broker targets sit well above the price. On 6 November 2026, per Benzinga headlines, H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $20 and RBC Capital cut its target to $18 from $19.

Bear case

• Ovarian revenue fell and missed forecasts. Third-quarter CO-PACK revenue of $24.0 million came in below the second quarter's $25.1 million and the $26.078 million consensus. The company cited fewer new patient starts, the number that drives future refill revenue.
• Losses are widening as the trials grow. Research and development spending was $68.8 million in the third quarter, up 137% from a year earlier. The GAAP net loss was $74.7 million, or $0.74 a share (third-quarter release, 5 November 2026).
• More shares can come to market. The $100 million at-the-market agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald, filed on 5 November 2026, lets the company sell new shares over time. It follows 30,937,500 shares priced at $8.00 on 14 October 2026.
• The second-line market already has an approved drug. On 26 August 2026 the FDA approved Revolution Medicines' daraxonrasib, sold as Rasonque, for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer. In its RASolute 302 trial, median overall survival was 13.2 months against 6.7 months on chemotherapy (hazard ratio 0.40); VS-7375 has no randomized survival data yet.
• Insiders are selling under plans. SEC Form 4 filings show chief executive Daniel Paterson sold 44,121 shares at $8.00 on 1 October 2026 and 1,299 shares at $9.60 on 3 November 2026, and finance chief Daniel Calkins sold 2,566 shares at $8.00 on 1 October 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans. The filings since September show no open-market purchases.

Price setup

The shares closed at $9.85 on 4 November 2026, the session before results, and fell to $8.41 on 6 November 2026 across the revenue miss and the at-the-market filing. They have since closed at $8.70 on 9 November 2026, $8.73 on 10 November 2026 and $9.09 on 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes.

The 11 November 2026 close sits above the 50-day moving average of $8.47 and the 200-day moving average of $6.28. The shares are up 36.3% over three months from $6.67 on 13 August 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $3.45 on 25 June 2026. The last close is 16.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $10.82, set on 26 November 2025.

The $8.00 price of the 14 October 2026 offering is the level the case turns on below the market. The 6 November 2026 close held just above it. Closes back under $8.00 would put the October offering's buyers at a loss while the company holds a fresh $100 million program to sell more shares.

Catalysts ahead

• 16 November 2026: Verastem presentation at the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference. Management's next public comment after the Q3 revenue miss; any change to TARGET-D 301 timing or to CO-PACK new patient start trends would surface here.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Planned opening of TARGET-D 301, the three-arm first-line metastatic pancreatic Phase 3 of VS-7375. An on-time start shows the October capital going into a registration trial; a slip removes the main near-term support for the case.
• 1 January 2027: Michael P. Bailey becomes president and CEO. The leadership handover lands as the Phase 3 opens and the company tries to return CO-PACK new patient starts to growth.
• 7 February 2027: FDA decision date for the AVMAPKI blister-pack new drug application under Priority Review. Approval would update the packaging of the only marketed product; a delay would add to the commercial questions raised by the Q3 revenue miss.
• ~5 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether CO-PACK revenue resumes growth above Q2's $25.1M or keeps slipping, and whether shares were sold under the $100M at-the-market program.
• ~30 June 2027 (est.): RAMP 301 topline primary-endpoint readout in recurrent low-grade serous ovarian cancer. Decides whether CO-PACK's accelerated approval, the company's only revenue source, can convert to full approval.

What would change the view

A daily close above $11.00, over the 52-week intraday high of $10.82 set on 26 November 2025, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or fourth-quarter 2026 CO-PACK net product revenue above the second quarter's $25.1 million, showing new patient starts recovering.

What it trades with

The shares trade on company-specific trial and financing news more than on the broad market. Revolution Medicines matters most as an outside driver: strong Rasonque uptake or positive first-line pancreatic data from daraxonrasib would raise the bar for VS-7375. Other small oncology biotechs raising equity set the conditions for any sales under the at-the-market program. The Novocure collaboration links the two companies' pancreatic programs, but it carries no announced financial terms.