IBRX · ImmunityBio
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.97
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.97, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 24.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.97, the 200-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading again. A reported fourth-quarter net product revenue above Q2 2026's $50.7 million would also point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 48.8
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +52.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 97.4
- Operating margin (%)
- −159.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −297
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −92.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 35.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −4.6
All filed numbers
What ImmunityBio reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 48.8 | +52.3 | 97.4 | −159.7 |
| first filed | 51.2 | +93.9 | 99.4 | −120.4 |
| first filed | 44.2 | +167.6 | 99.5 | −157.9 |
| first filed | 38.3 | +407.0 | 99.0 | −169.0 |
| first filed | 32.1 | +425.1 | 99.4 | −173.5 |
| first filed | 26.4 | +2423.9 | 99.5 | −269.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −185 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −1,110 | −185 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +12.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −288 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 9.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −297 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 334 |
| Debt ($M) secured debt | 426 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −92.0 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 53.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | 0.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −1,146 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,404 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,496 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 35.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −4.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.2 days of average trading to cover, −0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $9.5M |
The thesis
ImmunityBio shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Third-quarter net product revenue of $48.7 million fell below the second quarter's $50.7 million, which ended a run of sequential growth, and the company has not yet released the QUILT-2.005 efficacy numbers. Those numbers, and fourth-quarter Anktiva revenue, settle the call.
The company said on 9 November 2026 that Cohort A of QUILT-2.005, a randomized trial of Anktiva plus Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against BCG alone in BCG-naive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), met its primary endpoint. Its 8-K gave no endpoint measure, effect size or statistical detail, and a supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) is planned for the fourth quarter of 2026. The shares still fell: they closed at $8.63 on 6 November 2026, $7.11 on 9 November 2026 and $6.67 on 11 November 2026. The market has priced the revenue shortfall and the funding burden ahead of the trial result.
Bullish and bearish views on ImmunityBio, Inc.
The bull case on ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX), in brief: the registrational trial met its primary endpoint. The bear case: sequential growth stopped.
Bull case
- The registrational trial met its primary endpoint. The company announced on 9 November 2026 that Anktiva plus BCG beat BCG alone in the final analysis of QUILT-2.005 Cohort A. It reported adverse events consistent with BCG alone and plans to present detailed data at a medical congress.
- A filing for a much larger population is planned. The company's 9 November 2026 8-K says the sBLA for BCG-naive NMIBC will be submitted in the fourth quarter of 2026. The FDA expanded Anktiva plus BCG to papillary-only BCG-unresponsive disease on 14 October 2026, ahead of the 6 January 2027 target date.
- Revenue is still far above last year. Q3 2026 net product revenue of $48.7 million was up 53% from Q3 2025, and nine-month revenue of $143.6 million was up 92%, per the 9 November 2026 8-K.
- Approvals are widening. The company reported on 9 November 2026 that Israel's Ministry of Health approved Anktiva plus BCG and that approvals now span 35 countries. It treated the first patients in Europe on 4 November 2026.
- Long-term data support durability. In QUILT-3.032, published in the Journal of Urology and announced on 16 October 2026, 100 patients with carcinoma in situ had a 71% complete response rate and 84% cystectomy-free survival at 36 months among responders.
Bear case
- Sequential growth stopped. Q3 net product revenue of $48.7 million compares with $50.7 million in Q2 2026, per the company's 8-Ks of 9 November 2026 and 4 August 2026. Benzinga reported total revenue of $48.841 million against a $59.250 million analyst estimate, and an adjusted loss of $0.09 a share against an estimated $0.08.
- The trial result has no numbers yet. The release says only that the primary endpoint was met. The size of the complete-response gain over BCG alone, which determines how much of the first-line market the label can reach, is unpublished.
- Liabilities dwarf the cash. Cash and marketable securities were $334.3 million on 30 September 2026, against $357.4 million on 30 June 2026, per the 8-Ks. A related-party convertible note stood at $834.9 million at fair value and a revenue interest liability at $426.3 million, with a stockholders' deficit of $1.15 billion.
- Losses remain large. Q3 adjusted net loss was $97.9 million against $72.4 million a year earlier. GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $184.6 million, including a $77.9 million non-cash charge from fair-value changes the company tied to a higher share price in the quarter.
- Directors sold in October. Director Cheryl Cohen sold 81,056 shares at $10.50 on 2 October 2026, and director Barry J. Simon sold 25,000 shares at $10.75 on 5 October 2026, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans, per SEC Form 4 filings. Simon's Form 144 covered 560,000 shares. No newer Form 4 sales appear in the company's filings.
Price setup
The shares closed at $6.67 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of closes ($8.67) and below the 200-day average, and 12.8% lower than the $7.65 close of 13 August 2026 three months earlier.
The sharpest move came on 9 November 2026, when the close fell from $8.63 on 6 November 2026 to $7.11, the session of the revenue miss and the trial announcement. Closes of $6.75 on 10 November 2026 and $6.67 on 11 November 2026 followed. The 52-week intraday high is $12.43 on 25 February 2026, and the last close is 46.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $1.98 on 30 December 2025.
A close above the 200-day average would be the first sign that buyers are treating the trial result as outweighing the revenue stall. Insiders control about 66% of the shares, per MarketBeat, so a thin public float can widen moves in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Planned sBLA submission for Anktiva plus BCG in BCG-naive NMIBC, which the company's 9 November 2026 8-K guides to Q4 2026. A filing on schedule keeps the first-line label expansion moving; a slip would suggest the data are weaker or more complex than the primary-endpoint headline implies.
- ~15 January 2027 (est.): Possible preliminary fourth-quarter net product revenue release, following the company's 15 January 2026 precedent. Shows whether revenue rebounds above Q2 2026's $50.7M after the Q3 dip to $48.7M.
- ~3 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, following the 3 March 2026 timing of last year's report. Confirms fourth-quarter revenue, cash against $334.3M on 30 September 2026, and any financing used to fund losses.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.97, the 200-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading again. A reported fourth-quarter net product revenue above Q2 2026's $50.7 million would also point the same way.
What it trades with
IBRX trades on company-specific bladder-cancer news more than on the biotech index. Johnson & Johnson's Inlexzo competes in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC, so news on that product can affect sentiment. Executive Chairman Patrick Soon-Shiong's other biotech holdings, including PDS Biotechnology, can also produce headlines that move IBRX shares.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 net product revenue was $48.7M, up 53% year over year; nine-month net product revenue was $143.6M, up 92%. ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Q2 2026 net product revenue was $50.7M, up 92% year over year; Q3 2026 revenue is below it. ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 4 August 2026 · as of
- Cohort A of QUILT-2.005 (Anktiva plus BCG versus BCG alone in BCG-naive NMIBC) met its primary endpoint; no effect size was given and the sBLA is planned for Q4 2026. ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $334.3M on 30 September 2026 ($45.1M cash, $289.2M marketable securities). ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted net loss was $97.9M and GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $184.6M, including a $77.9M non-cash fair-value charge. ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Related-party convertible note payable at fair value was $834.9M and the revenue interest liability $426.3M; stockholders' deficit was $1.15B. ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Total revenue of $48.841M missed the $59.250M analyst estimate; adjusted EPS was $(0.09) against $(0.08) expected. Benzinga, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Director Cheryl Cohen sold 81,056 shares at $10.50 on 2 October 2026; director Barry J. Simon sold 25,000 shares at $10.75 on 5 October 2026, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings, 6 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- ImmunityBio, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- ImmunityBio, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- ImmunityBio Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $48.7 Million · heygotrade.com
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