JBLU · JetBlue Airways
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.86, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 28.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.86, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter RASM gain above the 22.0% top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 26 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,812
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +21.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −5.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −1,135
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −6,941
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −80.0
All filed numbers
What JetBlue Airways reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,812 | +21.1 | −5.1 |
| first filed | 2,697 | +14.5 | −5.2 |
| first filed | 2,240 | +4.7 | −10.0 |
| first filed | 2,244 | −1.4 | −4.5 |
| first filed | 2,322 | −1.8 | −4.3 |
| first filed | 2,356 | −3.0 | 0.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −270 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −1,000 | −257 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −224 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 911 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −1,135 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,509 |
| Debt ($M) | 8,450 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −6,941 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.5% on a year | 2,984 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 403 |
| Inventory ($M) | 356 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,337 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,419 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,360 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −80.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 28.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.4 days of average trading to cover, +9.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $624K | $24K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $624K | $924K |
The thesis
JetBlue Airways is more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Lenders holding about 55% of its 2031 bonds and first-lien loan signed a cooperation agreement on 11 November 2026 (Bloomberg News, via Reuters), while the company guides fourth-quarter fuel at $4.64 a gallon against $8,393 million of debt. A financing or debt announcement, or the fourth-quarter 2026 report expected in late January 2027, settles whether the balance sheet holds.
The shares closed at $3.81 on 12 November 2026, down from $4.02 on 11 November 2026 and 42.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $6.62 on 4 August 2026. They are up from a 52-week closing low of $2.37 on 26 October 2026, after the chief executive and chief financial officer denied bankruptcy plans and two directors bought stock.
The operating facts come from the 26 October 2026 third-quarter report. Revenue per available seat mile (RASM, the revenue earned per seat flown one mile) rose 18.4% from a year earlier, yet fuel at $3.91 a gallon, up 57%, still produced an operating loss of $144 million.
Bullish and bearish views on JetBlue Airways Corporation
The bull case on JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), in brief: management denies a restructuring. The bear case: creditors are organizing against the company.
Bull case
- Management denies a restructuring. Bloomberg reported on 6 November 2026 that JetBlue's chief financial officer told employees the company is "not considering bankruptcy." Chief executive Joanna Geraghty told Reuters in October that JetBlue is not in talks with creditors.
- Fares are covering more of the fuel bill. The 26 October 2026 release showed revenue of $2.8 billion, up 21.1%, with RASM up 18.4% against unit costs excluding fuel up 7.0%. Fourth-quarter guidance is RASM up 18.0% to 22.0% with unit costs excluding fuel between down 1.0% and up 1.0%.
- Liquidity is $2.2 billion. The third-quarter release shows that figure at 30 September 2026, including a $600 million undrawn credit facility, and about $7 billion of assets not pledged to lenders. JetBlue expects about $250 million of aircraft-backed financing to fund in the fourth quarter.
- Two directors bought shares. SEC Form 4 filings show Peter Boneparth bought 100,000 shares at $3.00 on 29 October 2026 and Nik Mittal bought 100,000 shares at an average of $3.24 on 3 November 2026.
- Analyst views are moving up from low targets. UBS kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $4 from $3.50 on 10 November 2026. Deutsche Bank upgraded JetBlue to Buy on 5 November 2026 with a $5.50 target, according to Goldesel; no English-language source confirmed that target.
- The 2027 profit goal stands. Skift reported on 26 October 2026 that the carrier kept its 2027 profitability target after the third-quarter report.
Bear case
- Creditors are organizing against the company. Bloomberg News reported on 11 November 2026 that lenders holding about 55% of the 2031 bonds and first-lien loan signed a cooperation agreement, with PJT Partners and Akin Gump as advisers. A separate minority group works with Hogan Lovells Cadwalader. Early signers can receive a carve-out premium that could improve their recoveries.
- Fuel is guided higher. JetBlue guides fourth-quarter fuel at $4.64 a gallon, up from $3.91 in the third quarter. The 2026 adjusted operating margin outlook is negative 4.5% to negative 6.5%, with about $590 million of interest expense.
- Most analyst targets sit near or below the price. BMO Capital Markets cut its target to $3.75 and Susquehanna kept a Neutral rating with a $3 target on 29 October 2026. UBS's $4 target on 10 November 2026 sits 5.0% above the $3.81 close of 12 November 2026.
- Earnings missed. Third-quarter adjusted loss was $0.60 a share against the $0.54 loss analysts expected, and revenue of $2.812 billion trailed the $2.820 billion estimate (Benzinga, 26 October 2026).
- A federal inquiry has opened. The Federal Trade Commission began an inquiry on 29 October 2026 into JetBlue's use of personal data for pricing. Fare gains drive the case, and they are the subject of the inquiry.
- An executive keeps selling. Chief Digital and Technology Officer Carol Ann Clements sold 2,000 shares at $2.96 on 30 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 sales plan (SEC Form 4). The same plan produced sales at $4.29 on 30 September 2026 and $4.71 on 31 August 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $3.49 on 5 November 2026, $3.94 on 9 November 2026, $4.02 on 11 November 2026 and $3.81 on 12 November 2026. The last close sits just above the 50-day average of $3.77 and well below the 200-day average of $4.85, both from adjusted closes as of 12 November 2026. The three-month change is negative 32.6% from the $5.65 close on 14 August 2026.
The rebound from the 26 October 2026 closing low of $2.37 has stalled below $4.05. The pullback on 12 November 2026 came the day after the creditor cooperation report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Quarterly 13F filings for the period ended 30 September 2026. Shows whether large holders, including Icahn entities, changed JetBlue stakes after the August and October selloffs.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected funding of about $250 million of aircraft-backed financing in the fourth quarter. Funding on schedule adds to the $2.2 billion of liquidity reported at 30 September 2026; a delay puts more weight on other financing routes.
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): Possible 8-K investor update or creditor-related announcement. JetBlue issued mid-quarter updates on 28 July 2026 and 10 September 2026; an exchange offer or refinancing, or word on talks with the creditor group, would reset the debt debate.
- ~27 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether RASM growth of 18.0% to 22.0% and fuel of $4.64 a gallon came in as guided, and what 2027 financing looks like.
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.86, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter RASM gain above the 22.0% top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
JetBlue trades with crude oil and jet fuel: third-quarter fuel cost rose 57% from a year earlier, and the fourth-quarter guide adds a further 18.6% per gallon. Other US airlines move with it on fuel and demand news, though JetBlue's debt makes its shares more volatile. Its bonds and shares have moved together since the Wall Street Journal reported on 23 October 2026 that creditors met a restructuring adviser.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 operating revenue $2.8 billion, up 21.1% from a year earlier; RASM 16.28 cents, up 18.4%; unit costs excluding fuel 11.78 cents, up 7.0%; average fuel $3.91 a gallon, up 57%. JetBlue third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss $257 million ($0.68 a share); adjusted loss $0.60 a share; operating loss $144 million. JetBlue third-quarter 2026 earnings release and 10-Q · as of
- Liquidity $2.2 billion at quarter end including a $600 million undrawn credit facility; total debt $8,393 million. JetBlue third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: capacity up 3.0% to 4.0%, RASM up 18.0% to 22.0%, unit costs excluding fuel down 1.0% to up 1.0%, fuel $4.64 a gallon. JetBlue third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Lenders holding about 55% of JetBlue's 2031 bonds and first-lien loan signed a cooperation agreement with PJT Partners and Akin Gump as advisers; early signers can receive a carve-out premium. Bloomberg News, reported by Reuters via Investing.com · as of
- UBS kept a Neutral rating on JetBlue and raised its price target to $4 from $3.50. UBS analyst note, reported by Benzinga · as of
- Director Nik Mittal bought 100,000 shares at an average of $3.24 on 3 November 2026; director Peter Boneparth bought 100,000 shares at $3.00 on 29 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- JetBlue's chief financial officer told employees the company is 'not considering bankruptcy'. Bloomberg headline · as of
Sources
- Majority of JetBlue lenders sign cooperation deal, Bloomberg News reports By Reuters · investing.com ·
- JetBlue Lenders Form Groups as Airline Downplays Financial Peril · news.bloomberglaw.com
- Beaten-Down JetBlue Shares Rebound as Carrier Says 2027 Profit Is on Track · skift.com ·
- JETBLUE AIRWAYS Aktie: Deutsche Bank stuft auf Kaufen hoch und hebt Kursziel auf 5,50 Dollar · goldesel.de
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