JOBY · Joby Aviation

The thesis

Joby Aviation's shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter revenue beat came from the acquired Blade air-charter business, while the aircraft milestones moved later: AVweb reported on 12 November 2026 that Joby now expects initial U.S. passenger operations in 2027, not 2026. Dubai flight testing before the end of 2026 and the start of FAA pilot training in the first half of 2027 settle whether the aircraft case catches up with the reported numbers.

The shares closed at $5.34 on 12 November 2026, down from $6.18 on 9 November 2026 and below both the 50-day average of $5.64 and the 200-day average of $8.23 (adjusted daily closes). The three-month change is a loss of 32.6%. The shares are 68.8% below the 52-week high of $17.10, set intraday on 12 November 2025.

Canaccord upgraded the shares to Buy on 5 November 2026 while cutting its target to $7 from $11.50. Needham kept Buy and lowered its target to $10 (Benzinga). The analyst targets sit above the current price; the delay to passenger service is what separates them from it.

Bullish and bearish views on Joby Aviation, Inc.

The bull case on Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY), in brief: revenue beat and a raised outlook. The bear case: passenger service moved to 2027.

Bull case

• Revenue beat and a raised outlook. Joby reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $55.089 million against a $39.218 million analyst estimate on 4 November 2026. It lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $135–140 million from $115–125 million, against a $120.676 million estimate (Benzinga).
• FAA certification is in its final stage. The company's 4 November 2026 release says Joby completed for-credit tests in the fifth and final stage of type certification. It reports 17 aircraft in production.
• Liquidity covers the stated burn. Cash, equivalents and short-term investments were $2.2 billion at 30 September 2026, and the company kept its second-half 2026 cash-use guidance of $385–415 million (Joby release, 4 November 2026).
• Government autonomy funding grew. Joby announced on 4 November 2026 that U.S. Air Force financing brought its autonomy funding to about $37 million.
• Analysts moved toward Buy. Canaccord upgraded to Buy on 5 November 2026 and Needham held Buy the same day (Benzinga).

Bear case

• Passenger service moved to 2027. AVweb reported on 12 November 2026, citing the 4 November 2026 shareholder letter and call, that Joby now targets 2027 for initial U.S. passenger operations under the FAA eVTOL Integration Pilot Program. Chief Financial Officer Rodrigo Brumana indicated initial commercial operations are expected in 2027; Joby had earlier planned passenger flights before the end of 2026.
• FAA testing starts later. FAA pilot training and further company flight testing moved to the first half of 2027, ahead of type inspection authorisation testing (AVweb, 12 November 2026). Finviz's 5 November 2026 analysis says the second $250 million Toyota tranche moved to the same window.
• Revenue is air charter. Third-quarter revenue came primarily from Blade, which carried 44,000+ passengers; Joby did not separately disclose non-Blade revenue (company release, 4 November 2026).
• Losses are widening. Finviz reports operating expenses rose from $258 million to $300 million to $333 million over three quarters, and the adjusted loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation reached $208 million.
• Share issuance continues. Third-quarter proceeds included about $128 million net from the at-the-market equity programme, leaving roughly $620 million of capacity (Finviz and MarketBeat call coverage, 5 November 2026).
• Acquisition and litigation add cash calls. Finviz reports the Resonant Sciences deal needs about $450 million in cash, which management places in early 2027. A federal jury awarded Aerosonic about $116.9 million on 2 October 2026, and Joby has asked the court to overturn it.
• Insiders sold small blocks. Director Paul Sciarra sold 62,500 shares at $4.97 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and Chief Product Officer Eric Allison sold 27,593 shares at $5.09 on 13 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).

Price setup

The shares closed at $5.30 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, then rose to $6.18 on 9 November 2026. They closed at $5.34 on 12 November 2026, giving back most of that rise on the day AVweb published the 2027 timing report. The market price already reflects the delay: the close is 32.6% below the 14 August 2026 close of $7.92.

The 52-week closing low is $4.61, set on 14 October 2026. The 50-day average of $5.64 sits just above the last close. The 200-day average of $8.23 is well above it, and the shares have not closed above that average in the period covered by these closes.

A close above the $6.18 level of 9 November 2026 would be a new high for the rebound. A close under $4.61 would be a new low for the year and would erase the post-report recovery.

Catalysts ahead

• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Calendar deadline for Joby's pilot-aboard operational flight testing across the Dubai vertiport network, which Chief Executive JoeBen Bevirt said is planned for later in 2026. Dated progress here is the nearest observable step toward passenger service in Dubai; a stated move to 2027 would extend the delay already set for U.S. operations.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Archer's targeted piloted transition from vertical to wingborne flight, set before the end of 2026. Peer progress on the same certification path often moves both shares; a miss would point to wider eVTOL timeline slippage.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): Ruling on Joby's request to overturn the Aerosonic jury verdict (no date set). A denial leaves a roughly $116.9 million liability that would draw on cash.
• ~30 June 2027 (est.): End of the first half of 2027, the window for FAA pilot training and further company flight testing, and for the second Toyota tranche. Starting this testing is the step that supports the 2027 passenger timeline.

What would change the view

A daily close above $6.88, which would carry the shares well past the $6.18 close of 9 November 2026 and show them leading the S&P 500 despite the 2027 delay. A completed piloted passenger flight in Dubai before 2026 year-end would also show the case failing.

What it trades with

Archer Aviation (ACHR) is the closest peer. Both companies depend on FAA certification and the same eVTOL integration programme. AVweb's 12 November 2026 report covers both: Archer's Midnight received an FAA market survey special airworthiness certificate for piloted demonstration flights in Los Angeles, and Chief Executive Adam Goldstein said he plans to be Archer's first passenger in 2027.

Joby also trades with growth and speculative shares generally. Benzinga attributed the May 2026 decline after the first-quarter beat to a growth-stock sell-off. Its Blade charter revenue links part of the result to premium travel demand, and the Air Force and Resonant Sciences work links it to defense spending.