JRSH · Jerash Holdings (US)
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $6.10
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $6.10, set on 12 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 29.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $6.10, the 6 November 2026 close before the fiscal Q2 report, which would erase the entire post-report gain. Fiscal Q3 FY2027 revenue below $49 million or gross margin below 16% would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 50.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +19.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 18.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 4.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 14.1
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.4
All filed numbers
What Jerash Holdings (US) reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 50.3 | +19.8 | 18.2 | 6.1 |
| first filed | 50.2 | +26.7 | 16.4 | 5.2 |
| first filed | 42.9 | +46.6 | 17.1 | 5.4 |
| first filed | 41.8 | +18.0 | 16.9 | 4.7 |
| first filed | 42.0 | +4.3 | 15.0 | 2.6 |
| first filed | 39.6 | −3.2 | 15.4 | 2.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 6.6 | 2.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 9.7 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 5.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 16.9 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 2.8 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 14.1 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −87.5% on a year | 0.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 4.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | 23.3 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 67.8 |
| Market value ($M) | 92.7 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 78.7 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 7.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 0.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.0 days of average trading to cover, +141.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1K |
The thesis
Jerash Holdings' fiscal second quarter beat its own guidance on revenue and margin, and the company guided the next quarter well above Wall Street's estimate. That makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected around 10 February 2027, settles it: revenue must land in the $49–51 million range and gross margin at 16–17%.
The quarter ended 30 September 2026 brought revenue of $50.29 million, up 19.8% year over year. Gross margin was 18.2%, against the 14–15% the company guided on 10 August 2026. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.16, against a $0.09 consensus (company release and Benzinga, 10 November 2026). Management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $49–51 million, against a $44.6 million consensus, and said its plants are "fully booked through June 2027."
The shares closed at $7.80 on 11 November 2026, up from $6.10 on 6 November 2026, the last close before the report. The two-day rise and DA Davidson's target increase to $10 on 11 November 2026 show the market has priced the beat itself. What it has not yet priced is a second quarter at the same margin. The case is a modest edge because a micro-cap that has already re-rated can give back gains even when the business holds.
Bullish and bearish views on Jerash Holdings (US), Inc.
The bull case on Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. (JRSH), in brief: margin beat guidance by three points. The bear case: capacity caps growth until late 2027.
Bull case
- Margin beat guidance by three points. Fiscal Q2 FY2027 gross margin was 18.2%, up from 15.0% a year earlier, against the 14–15% guided on 10 August 2026 (company release, 10 November 2026). Gross profit rose 45.4% to $9.15 million.
- Profit grew far faster than sales. Operating income was $3.07 million against $1.09 million a year earlier, and net income was $2.16 million against $479,000 (company release, 10 November 2026).
- Guidance runs ahead of consensus. Fiscal Q3 revenue guidance of $49–51 million, up about 17–22% year over year, compares with a $44.6 million consensus (Benzinga, 10 November 2026). The gross-margin guide of 16–17% sits above the 14–15% guided for fiscal Q2.
- Orders fill the plants into mid-2027. The company said on 10 November 2026 that its facilities are "fully booked through June 2027" and that order in-flow "remains strong."
- Cash generation improved sharply. Operating cash flow for the six months to 30 September 2026 was $7.53 million against $318,000 a year earlier; cash and equivalents were $16.05 million on 30 September 2026, up from $10.76 million on 31 March 2026 (company release).
- An analyst raised the target after the report. DA Davidson kept its Buy rating and raised its target to $10 from $6 on 11 November 2026, citing demand, the beat and tariff-free production in Jordan (Investing.com, 11 November 2026).
Bear case
- Capacity caps growth until late 2027. Renovation of the newest facility and a third satellite factory are due by September 2027, adding about 15–20% capacity (company release, 10 November 2026). Fiscal Q3 guidance of $49–51 million brackets fiscal Q2's $50.29 million and fiscal Q1's $50.23 million, so revenue is flat quarter to quarter until then.
- Guided margin steps down from fiscal Q2. The 16–17% fiscal Q3 gross-margin outlook is below fiscal Q2's 18.2%, and the company again cited higher transportation costs on raw material imports (company release, 10 November 2026).
- One customer drives the result. The company attributed fiscal Q2 growth to higher shipments to its largest US customer (10 November 2026 release). VF Corp is the largest customer (10 August 2026 call); the fiscal 2022 disclosure showed VF at about 67% of sales.
- The shares have already re-rated. The close of $7.80 on 11 November 2026 compares with a 52-week closing low of $2.86 on 26 March 2026, and the three-month gain is 47.7% (adjusted daily closes).
- A registered shelf offering sits on file. A $100 million mixed-securities registration (Form S-3, preliminary prospectus dated 24 February 2025) remains available; company news through 11 November 2026 shows no offering under it.
Price setup
The shares closed at $7.80 on 11 November 2026, 1.3% below the intraday 52-week high of $7.90 set the same day. The report session, 10 November 2026, closed at $7.55, a 14.9% one-day gain from $6.57 on 9 November 2026. The last pre-report close was $6.10 on 6 November 2026.
The 50-day moving average was $5.94 and the 200-day moving average $4.31 on 11 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The price sits well above both, and the 50-day average sits above the 200-day. The three-month change is 47.7%, from $5.28 adjusted on 13 August 2026.
The $6.10 pre-report close is the level the case turns on. Holding above it means the market keeps crediting the fiscal Q2 beat; a return under it means the post-report gain has been given back. The shares move in gaps, as the upside circuit-breaker halt on 15 June 2026 showed.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: Record date for the $0.05 quarterly dividend declared on 5 November 2026. Confirms the dividend continues at the $0.05 quarterly rate; it does not bear on the operating case.
- ~10 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal Q3 FY2027 report for the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Tests the $49–51 million revenue and 16–17% gross-margin guidance issued on 10 November 2026, and shows whether the fiscal Q2 margin of 18.2% was a peak or a new level.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $6.10, the 6 November 2026 close before the fiscal Q2 report, which would erase the entire post-report gain. Fiscal Q3 FY2027 revenue below $49 million or gross margin below 16% would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Freight costs on raw material imports push gross margin back toward the 15% level of a year earlier. Confirmed by: fiscal Q3 FY2027 gross margin below the 16% floor of guidance issued on 10 November 2026.
- Orders from the largest US customer slow, cutting revenue disproportionately. Confirmed by: fiscal Q3 FY2027 revenue below the $49 million floor of guidance, or management citing lower largest-customer volumes.
- Capacity projects slip, leaving revenue flat beyond 2027. Confirmed by: company commentary moving completion of the renovation or third satellite factory past September 2027.
- Share issuance under the registered $100 million mixed-securities filing adds supply after the price rise. Confirmed by: a prospectus supplement or Form 8-K announcing an offering.
- A change in US tariff treatment of Jordan-made apparel removes the duty-free advantage. Confirmed by: US government action altering duty-free access under the US–Jordan free trade agreement.
What it trades with
The shares trade on company-specific results far more than on the market. The drivers are order flow from VF Corp and the company's other US brand customers, freight costs on raw material imports into Jordan, and US trade policy, since duty-free US access runs through the US–Jordan free trade agreement. DA Davidson's 11 November 2026 note named tariff-free Jordan production as part of the case, so a change in US tariff treatment of Jordan would move the shares directly. Broad apparel and retail names give only a loose read-through, because Jerash's revenue depends on a few customers' sourcing decisions.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q2 FY2027 revenue was $50.29 million, up 19.8%; gross margin was 18.2% vs 15.0%; operating income $3.07 million; net income $2.16 million, or $0.16 per diluted share. Jerash fiscal Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Management guided fiscal Q3 FY2027 revenue to about $49–51 million, up 17–22% year over year, and gross margin to about 16–17%. Jerash fiscal Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.16 compared with a $0.09 consensus and sales of $50.286 million with a $49.95 million consensus; fiscal Q3 consensus revenue was $44.6 million. Benzinga earnings headlines, 10 November 2026 · as of
- The company said its production facilities are fully booked through June 2027; new capacity of about 15–20% is due by September 2027. Jerash fiscal Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Six-month operating cash flow was $7.53 million vs $318,000; cash and equivalents were $16.05 million on 30 September 2026. Jerash fiscal Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- DA Davidson kept a Buy rating and raised its price target on Jerash to $10 from $6. Investing.com, 11 November 2026 · as of
- The board declared a $0.05 per share quarterly dividend, record date 16 November 2026, payable on or about 23 November 2026. Jerash Holdings release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal Q1 FY2027 revenue was $50.23 million, up 26.7%, with gross margin of 16.4%. Jerash fiscal Q1 FY2027 results release, 10 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- Jerash Holdings Reports Fiscal 2027 Second Quarter Financial Results · stocktitan.net ·
- DA Davidson raises Jerash Holdings price target on strong demand · uk.investing.com
- DA Davidson Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Jerash Holdings (US) (NASDAQ:JRSH) Stock · marketbeat.com ·
- Jerash Holdings Reports Financial Results for Fiscal 2027 First Quarter · newswire.com
- Jerash Holdings (JRSH) news · stocktitan.net