HTZ · Hertz Global Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $2.26
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
33.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $2.26, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 30.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $2.26, the 4 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report drop and show the shares leading. A signed maturity extension that issues no new shares would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,617
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +5.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,290
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −17,769
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 240.6
All filed numbers
What Hertz Global Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,617 | +5.6 | 3.3 |
| first filed | 2,004 | +10.5 | −15.2 |
| first filed | 2,028 | −0.6 | −11.0 |
| first filed | 2,478 | −3.8 | 9.4 |
| first filed | 2,185 | −7.1 | −14.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 87.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −347 | 116 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +30.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,394 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 104 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,290 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 531 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 18,300 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −17,769 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −489 |
| Market value ($M) | 536 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 18,305 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 240.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 35.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, +2.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $248K |
The thesis
Hertz Global Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its best operating quarter in three years did not change the fact that creditors rank ahead of shareholders on $17.9 billion of debt. The 1 December 2026 bond maturity and the terms of any maturity extension settle whether the equity recovers or is diluted.
The shares closed at $1.64 on 11 November 2026, 80.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $8.18 set on 20 April 2026. They set a 52-week closing low of $1.50 on 10 November 2026, five sessions after the third-quarter report. The market is pricing a meaningful chance that the debt talks end with new shares or debt converted to equity.
Third-quarter adjusted corporate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $233 million, up 15% year over year, on revenue of $2.6 billion, per the company's 5 November 2026 release. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.14 against a $0.25 consensus estimate, per Benzinga. The report added operating news but no refinancing terms. Bloomberg had reported on 30 September 2026 that Hertz hired PJT Partners for the debt work.
Bullish and bearish views on Hertz Global Holdings, Inc
The bull case on Hertz Global Holdings, Inc (HTZ), in brief: best operating quarter in three years. The bear case: costs rose faster than revenue.
Bull case
- Best operating quarter in three years. Adjusted corporate EBITDA rose 15% year over year to $233 million, against $81 million in the second quarter, per the 5 November 2026 release. GAAP net income was $116 million.
- U.S. pricing keeps improving. U.S. core revenue per day rose about 8% year over year, which the company called a third straight quarter of sequential improvement (5 November 2026 release). The U.S. core fleet averages nine months old, the youngest in 12 years, per the same release.
- Liquidity covers the nearest maturity. Hertz reported about $946 million of liquidity at 30 September 2026, including cash and revolver availability. That is well above the $200 million 4.63% bond due 1 December 2026.
- Management points to a larger 2027. StockStory's coverage of the 5 November 2026 call reports guidance of $500 million to $800 million of 2027 adjusted corporate EBITDA.
- Debt retired at a discount. Hertz's 8-K shows an agreement dated 16 October 2026 to repurchase about $51.1 million of 8.000% exchangeable second-lien notes for roughly $20.86 million. Its majority-owned fleet unit Oro Mobility raised $80 million of outside equity on 20 October 2026.
Bear case
- Costs rose faster than revenue. Direct operating expense per day rose 6% year over year in the third quarter, against about 5% growth in revenue per day (5 November 2026 release). TipRanks attributed the cost rise mainly to collision and maintenance expense.
- A seasonal loss is guided for the fourth quarter. TipRanks reported on 5 November 2026 that management expects a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss and lower liquidity after debt repayment.
- Debt ranks ahead of equity. The third-quarter 10-Q lists total debt of $17,911 million at 30 September 2026: $11,958 million of vehicle debt and $5,953 million of non-vehicle debt. Bloomberg reported on 7 October 2026 that lender groups had hired separate advisers ahead of possible negotiations.
- Selling continued after the report. The shares closed at $1.79 on 5 November 2026, $1.64 on 6 November 2026 and $1.50 on 10 November 2026, a new 52-week closing low, per adjusted daily closes.
- International was weak. The company said International results were soft in the third quarter while U.S. results drove the gains (5 November 2026 release).
- Insiders have not bought. SEC Form 4 filings from 2 October to 4 November 2026 show only director share awards, an executive award and tax withholding; none shows an open-market purchase.
Price setup
The shares closed at $1.64 on 11 November 2026, down 30.1% over three months from the $2.35 close of 13 August 2026, in adjusted daily closes. The 50-day average is $1.91 and the 200-day average is $3.62, so the shares sit below both. The 52-week closing low of $1.50 on 10 November 2026 is the nearest downside reference; the shares rebounded to $1.64 the next session.
Short interest adds to the swings. ChartExchange reported 114,472,183 shares short at the 31 August 2026 settlement, against 357,465,791 shares outstanding on 29 October 2026 per the 10-Q. A position that large can produce sharp rallies on any debt news. It can also add to selling when the news disappoints.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: $200 million 4.63% bond matures. Cash repayment from the $946 million of reported liquidity would clear the nearest maturity; an exchange or delay would show the debt talks turning against shareholders.
- ~12 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows liquidity after the December repayment and the size of the guided seasonal adjusted EBITDA loss.
What would change the view
A daily close above $2.26, the 4 November 2026 close before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report drop and show the shares leading. A signed maturity extension that issues no new shares would point the same way.
What it trades with
Hertz's earnings move with used-vehicle prices, which set fleet depreciation. Net depreciation per unit per month was $285 in the third quarter (5 November 2026 release). The shares also trade with high-yield credit: Benzinga reported on 25 September 2026 that junk-bond yields had risen above 15%, the highest since 2022, and listed Hertz among issuers under pressure.
Air-travel volumes drive airport rental demand, and Avis Budget is the closest listed peer. Because Hertz's equity is a small residual claim behind its debt, its swings are larger than either peer or credit-market moves.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $2.6 billion, up about 6% year over year; adjusted corporate EBITDA was $233 million, up 15%; GAAP net income was $116 million versus $184 million a year earlier. Hertz Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.14 against a $0.25 consensus estimate. Benzinga, 'Hertz Stock Hits a Speed Bump' · as of
- Hertz reported about $946 million of liquidity, including cash and revolver availability, at quarter-end. Hertz Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Total debt was $17,911 million: $11,958 million vehicle debt and $5,953 million non-vehicle debt. Hertz Global Holdings Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- U.S. core revenue per day rose about 8% year over year; direct operating expense per day rose 6%. Hertz Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Hertz common shares outstanding totaled 357,465,791. Hertz Global Holdings Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Hertz agreed to repurchase about $51.1 million of 8.000% exchangeable second-lien notes for roughly $20.86 million. Hertz Form 8-K · as of
- Form 4 filings show director share awards of 56,616 to 58,593 shares each on 2 November 2026; no open-market insider purchases appear in filings from 2 October to 4 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Hertz Announces Q3 2026 Results, Strongest Quarterly Revenue and EBITDA Performance in Three Years · newsroom.hertz.com ·
- HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Hertz Stock Hits a Speed Bump: Revenue Reaches Three-Year High, but EPS Misses Estimates · benzinga.com
- Hertz (NASDAQ:HTZ) reports Q3 2026 in line with expectations but stock drops · markets.financialcontent.com
- Hertz Stock (HTZ) Crashes 24% as Higher Inflation Drives Q3 Earnings Miss · tipranks.com
Related · shared themes
ALGT
Allegiant Travel
Allegiant Travel Company is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months as fares outrun fuel; its 7 December 2026 investor…
CHDN
Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs' growing Kentucky machine profit, record third quarter and $750 million buyback outweigh its shrinking Virginia machine…
INN
Summit Hotel Properties
Summit Hotel Properties looks modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: it raised 2026 guidance again on 3 November 2026 and…
LIND
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings
Lindblad Expeditions' shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 as 91% occupancy, 6% higher pricing and record 2027…