JBIO · Jade Biosciences
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $12.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
34.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $12.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 31.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $12.00, which would put the shares 20% under the $15.00 June 2026 offering price. An EVERGREEN Phase 3 start slipping past the fourth quarter of 2026, a JUNIPER interim guided beyond the second quarter of 2027, or runway cut from the fourth quarter of 2028 would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
Jade Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotech developing antibodies for autoimmune disease, led by JADE101 for IgA nephropathy, a kidney disease. It has no product revenue; it funds development from equity raises. Net loss was $35.1 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 13 November 2026 Jade reported third-quarter results: cash and investments of $475.7 million at 30 September 2026, runway into the fourth quarter of 2028, EVERGREEN Phase 3 start still guided to the fourth quarter of 2026.
- What follows for the company
- Research and development expense was $30.8 million in the third quarter, down from $50.1 million in the second; the net loss was $35.1 million. Spending should rise again once the Phase 3 enrolls.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Vera Therapeutics (VERA) has the closest approved-class comparator, atacicept, and targets a supplemental application in the fourth quarter of 2026. JADE101 will be judged against it once patient data arrive.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 13 November 2026) the shares trade at 2.5 times book value, for a market value of $1,117 million and an enterprise value of $781 million; EV/sales is not available and P/E and EV/EBIT are not meaningful. With no revenue, the price holds only if the Phase 3 starts on schedule and the second-quarter 2027 interim shows patient benefit.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 13 November 2026
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 336
All filed numbers
What Jade Biosciences reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −35.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −163 | −35.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +81.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −130 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 476 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 6 March 2026; convertible debt | 0.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 13 November 2026 | 336 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 456 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,117 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 781 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 16.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.9 days of average trading to cover, −7.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
Linked companies · as of
- Competitors:
- VERA
The thesis
Jade Biosciences' IgA nephropathy antibody JADE101 is funded into the fourth quarter of 2028, which leaves the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The EVERGREEN Phase 3 start, guided for the fourth quarter of 2026, is the next event that settles it, followed by the Phase 2 JUNIPER interim in the second quarter of 2027.
On 13 November 2026 Jade reported third-quarter results. Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $475.7 million at 30 September 2026, and the company reaffirmed runway into the fourth quarter of 2028. Research and development expense was $30.8 million, down from $50.1 million in the second quarter, and the net loss was $35.1 million, or $0.42 per common share (company 8-K).
The shares closed at $16.14 on 13 November 2026, the day of the report, up from $15.87 on 12 November 2026. That is above the $15.00 price of the June 2026 follow-on offering and 42.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.00 set on 27 April 2026. The three-month change is −31.2%, measured from the $23.45 close of 17 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Jade Biosciences, Inc.
The bull case on Jade Biosciences, Inc. (JBIO), in brief: funding runs well past the interim. The bear case: patient efficacy is still unproven.
Bull case
- Funding runs well past the interim. Cash and investments stood at $475.7 million at 30 September 2026, up from $461.2 million at 30 June 2026, and runway is guided into the fourth quarter of 2028 (company 8-K and second-quarter 10-Q). The June 2026 offering supplied that cash.
- The Phase 3 timetable held. The 13 November 2026 release keeps the EVERGREEN start in the fourth quarter of 2026. On 21 October 2026 the company called that ahead of its earlier schedule, and it presented an EVERGREEN trial-in-progress poster at the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week.
- Spending fell in the third quarter. Research and development expense was $30.8 million against $50.1 million in the second quarter, and the quarterly net loss fell to $35.1 million from $55.8 million (company filings).
- Phase 1 supports extended dosing. The 1 June 2026 interim showed about 70% mean immunoglobulin A reduction from baseline at 700 mg, sustained to 12 weeks, a 24.2-day half-life and no serious adverse events in healthy volunteers.
- A second antibody adds breadth. On 30 September 2026 Jade reported an approximately 25-day half-life for JADE301 after subcutaneous dosing in primates. The 13 November 2026 release guides its Phase 1 start to the fourth quarter of 2026, with interim data in the second half of 2027.
Bear case
- Patient efficacy is still unproven. The Phase 1 results come from healthy volunteers. The first patient evidence is the JUNIPER interim in the second quarter of 2027, which the 21 October 2026 release describes as open-label, so comparison with rival drugs will be across trials.
- The lower spending may not last. The fall to $30.8 million in research and development came before the Phase 3 enrolls, and the second-quarter figure was $50.1 million. Nine-month research and development expense was $116.9 million (company 8-K).
- The FDA position remains open. On the second-quarter call the CEO said Jade had not yet received Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance on the Phase 3 design and floated a trial of about 400 patients. The 13 November 2026 release says the start could be delayed if the FDA requires additional clinical data.
- A better-documented competitor is ahead. On 15 September 2026 Vera Therapeutics (VERA) reported a placebo-adjusted benefit of 5.0 mL/min/1.73 m² per year in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, a kidney filtering measure) slope through 104 weeks for atacicept in ORIGIN 3. Vera targets a supplemental application in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- The share count has grown sharply. The diluted share count was 81.3% higher than a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q). The June 2026 follow-on sold 11.5 million shares at $15.00, or $172.5 million gross, and the shares remain below their 200-day average.
Price setup
The shares closed at $16.14 on 13 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $15.32 and below the 200-day average of $18.23, both computed from adjusted daily closes as of that date. Recent closes were $15.07 on 6 November 2026, $15.60 on 9 November 2026, $16.40 on 10 November 2026, $16.54 on 11 November 2026 and $15.87 on 12 November 2026.
The $15.00 June 2026 offering price sits just under the 50-day average and is the level the shares have traded around since early November. The 52-week intraday high is $28.00 on 27 April 2026. The 52-week closing low is $9.68 on 13 November 2025.
At the 13 November 2026 close the filed price-to-book ratio is 2.5, with equity of $456 million, or $6.58 a share. The company reports no revenue, so earnings and sales multiples do not apply. Management speaks at the UBS conference on 16 November 2026 and the Jefferies conference on 17 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: UBS Global Biopharma Conference fireside chat with Jade management. Management comment after the third-quarter report on FDA feedback and the guided fourth-quarter Phase 3 start.
- 17 November 2026: Jefferies fireside chat with Jade management. A second round of remarks on the Phase 3 timetable and the spending outlook.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): EVERGREEN Phase 3 start for JADE101, guided to the fourth quarter of 2026. A company-controlled milestone that confirms the accelerated schedule; the company flags FDA requirements as a possible cause of delay.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): JADE301 Phase 1 start, guided to the fourth quarter of 2026. A slip would point to execution drift across two programs.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Vera Therapeutics supplemental application for atacicept, targeted by the company for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moves the incumbent in the same drug class closer to full approval ahead of JADE101.
- ~30 June 2027 (est.): JUNIPER Phase 2 interim results for JADE101, guided to the second quarter of 2027. The first patient-efficacy evidence for JADE101 and the event the share price is measured against.
What would change the view
A daily close below $12.00, which would put the shares 20% under the $15.00 June 2026 offering price. An EVERGREEN Phase 3 start slipping past the fourth quarter of 2026, a JUNIPER interim guided beyond the second quarter of 2027, or runway cut from the fourth quarter of 2028 would also show the case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Spending rises sharply once the Phase 3 enrolls, shortening the runway and reopening financing risk before Phase 2 results. Confirmed by: research and development expense well above the $30.8 million of the third quarter of 2026, or runway guidance moved in from the fourth quarter of 2028 at the next report.
- FDA feedback changes the Phase 3 design or delays the start; the CEO said on the second-quarter call that FDA guidance had not yet been received and floated a trial of about 400 patients. Confirmed by: a company update moving the EVERGREEN start beyond the fourth quarter of 2026 or enlarging the trial.
- Vera's established atacicept results set a higher benchmark, and JUNIPER's open-label design forces a cross-trial comparison. Confirmed by: a JUNIPER interim whose proteinuria reduction does not separate from approved comparators.
- Immunoglobulin A suppression seen in healthy volunteers does not translate into kidney benefit in patients. Confirmed by: a second-quarter 2027 JUNIPER interim showing weak proteinuria or eGFR change relative to the Phase 1 biomarker profile.
- The enlarged float after the June 2026 offering keeps pressure on the shares while no clinical results are due. Confirmed by: a new equity offering, or a Form 4 or 13G filing showing a large holder reducing its stake.
What it trades with
Jade has no product revenue, so the shares tend to move with small- and mid-cap biotech sentiment and with IgA nephropathy competitor news. Vera's atacicept filing and any label news in the drug class set the benchmark JADE101 will be measured against.
No clinical results are due before the JUNIPER interim in the second quarter of 2027. Company milestones, FDA feedback and financing conditions matter more than broad market direction until then.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments of $475.7 million at 30 September 2026; runway guided into the fourth quarter of 2028. Third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K), 13 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter research and development expense was $30.8 million and the net loss $35.1 million ($0.42 per common share); nine-month net loss was $131.2 million. Third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K), 13 November 2026 · as of
- EVERGREEN Phase 3 for JADE101 in IgA nephropathy is expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2026; the JUNIPER Phase 2 interim is expected in the second quarter of 2027. Third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K), 13 November 2026 · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 research and development expense was $50.1 million and the net loss $55.8 million; cash and investments were $461.2 million at 30 June 2026. Second-quarter 2026 10-Q · as of
- Vera Therapeutics reported a placebo-adjusted eGFR slope benefit of 5.0 mL/min/1.73 m² per year through 104 weeks for atacicept in ORIGIN 3. Vera Therapeutics release · as of
- Diluted share count rose 81.3% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026; equity was $456 million, or $6.58 a share. Third-quarter 2026 10-Q, filed 13 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Jade Biosciences, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Jade Biosciences to Highlight Advancement of JADE101 Development Program at American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Kidney Week 2026 · manilatimes.net ·
- Jade Biosciences Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update · jadebiosciences.com
- BioPharmaWatch ·