CNMD · CONMED
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $55.34
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $55.34, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 2.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $55.34, which is above the intraday 52-week high of $54.80 set on 5 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would an announced sale agreement, or fourth-quarter organic growth above the 6.8% top of the implied guide.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 336
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −0.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 56.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −768
All filed numbers
What CONMED reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 336 | −0.7 | 56.4 | 11.1 |
| first filed | 344 | +0.3 | 57.5 | 10.6 |
| first filed | 373 | +7.9 | 58.5 | 9.8 |
| first filed | 338 | +6.7 | 49.2 | 3.5 |
| first filed | 342 | +3.1 | 55.0 | 11.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 26.0 |
| Net income ($M) | 19.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −3.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 48.0 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases | 816 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −768 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +14.2% on a year | 24.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 234 |
| Inventory ($M) | 363 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,060 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,508 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,276 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.7 days of average trading to cover, −2.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $11K |
The thesis
CONMED Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The price rests partly on a July sale report the company has not confirmed, while the 28 October 2026 report trimmed the top of full-year organic growth guidance. A confirmed transaction or the fourth-quarter report settles it.
The shares closed at $50.48 on 12 November 2026, down from $52.83 on 5 November 2026, the day the intraday 52-week high of $54.80 was set. The three-month change is 0.1%. The close sits just above JPMorgan's $50 target (Neutral) and above Wells Fargo's $49 target (Equal-Weight), both raised on 29 October 2026 after the third-quarter report.
Bloomberg reported on 10 July 2026 that CONMED was weighing a sale after private-equity interest. Searches through 13 November 2026 find no company confirmation, named bidder or timetable.
Bullish and bearish views on CONMED Corporation
The bull case on CONMED Corporation (CNMD), in brief: third quarter met or beat guidance. The bear case: reported sales slipped and missed.
Bull case
- Third quarter met or beat guidance. Net sales of $335.6 million sat inside the company's range, and organic constant-currency growth was 6.7% (company 8-K, 28 October 2026). Adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 topped the $1.00 analyst estimate (Benzinga, 28 October 2026).
- Full-year profit guidance moved up. The company raised 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $4.54–$4.61 from $4.48–$4.60 on 28 October 2026.
- Margin improved. Third-quarter adjusted gross margin rose 40 basis points from a year earlier to 56.4% (company release, 28 October 2026).
- AirSeal is driving general surgery. Management said AirSeal was the largest contributor to general surgery growth in the third quarter, with strong capital-equipment sales outside the US (earnings call, 28 October 2026).
- Sale interest remains on the record. JPMorgan said on 10 July 2026 that the company would "look highly attractive to financial acquirers." A definitive agreement at a premium would put the shares ahead of the index.
Bear case
- Reported sales slipped and missed. Third-quarter net sales fell 0.7% as reported and came in under the $336.226 million analyst estimate (Benzinga, 28 October 2026). The exit from gastroenterology product lines explains the gap with organic growth.
- Organic growth guidance was narrowed from the top. Full-year organic constant-currency growth guidance moved to 5.0%–5.5% from 5.0%–6.0%, and management tied the lower top end to a fourth-quarter outlook in line with the third quarter (earnings call, 28 October 2026). Fourth-quarter guidance implies 5.1%–6.8% organic growth (MarketBeat call summary, 29 October 2026).
- Earnings per share fell from a year earlier. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 was down 3.2% from $1.08, and adjusted net income was $31.4 million against $33.4 million (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Cash flow is lower. Third-quarter free cash flow was $46.4 million, down 3.6% from a year earlier, and the full-year outlook is about $115 million (MarketBeat, 29 October 2026).
- The shares sit above the newest targets. The $50.48 close on 12 November 2026 is above Wells Fargo's $49 and at JPMorgan's $50 target, both dated 29 October 2026.
- The sale report has not advanced. No bidder, agreement or timetable has appeared in the 28 October 2026 results or in searches through 13 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $50.48 on 12 November 2026, against $47.20 on 27 October 2026, the session before the third-quarter report. They have fallen in four of the last five sessions since the $52.83 close on 5 November 2026. The 52-week high is $54.80 (intraday, 5 November 2026), and the last close is 7.9% below it.
The 50-day average is $47.14 and the 200-day average is $41.84 (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026). The shares trade above both. The 3-month reference close of $50.41 on 14 August 2026 is almost level with the latest close, so the shares have moved sideways over the quarter despite the July spike and the post-report rally.
The pullback came with no company news. A company statement on the review, or the fourth-quarter report, would reset the sale premium in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): CONMED fireside chat at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (announced 2 November 2026; a third-party events calendar lists 16 November 2026 at 6:30 a.m. Eastern). Management comments on fourth-quarter growth, the post-gastroenterology strategy and any sale process would update the two open questions in the case.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Net sales under $364 million or organic growth under 5.1% would break the guide; growth above 6.8% would show the shares leading.
What would change the view
A daily close above $55.34, which is above the intraday 52-week high of $54.80 set on 5 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would an announced sale agreement, or fourth-quarter organic growth above the 6.8% top of the implied guide.
What it trades with
CONMED trades with mid-cap surgical-device companies and with takeover sentiment toward medical-device assets. Its AirSeal growth depends partly on robotic surgery volume, including Intuitive's da Vinci 5 installed base. A reported bid for another mid-cap device company would likely lift the shares on read-across; a broad pullback in medical-device stocks would likely pull the sale premium down with it.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $335.6 million, down 0.7% as reported; organic constant-currency growth was 6.7%; adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.04, down 3.2%. CONMED third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- 2026 guidance: net sales $1.360–$1.366 billion, organic constant-currency growth 5.0%–5.5% (from 5.0%–6.0%), adjusted earnings per share $4.54–$4.61 (from $4.48–$4.60). CONMED third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 beat a $1.00 estimate; net sales of $335.557 million missed a $336.226 million estimate. Benzinga · as of
- Fourth-quarter guidance implies net sales of $364–$370 million, organic constant-currency growth of 5.1%–6.8% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.23–$1.30. MarketBeat third-quarter call summary · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $46.4 million, down 3.6% from a year earlier; full-year free cash flow is expected at about $115 million. MarketBeat third-quarter call summary · as of
- JPMorgan (Neutral) raised its CNMD target to $50 and Wells Fargo (Equal-Weight) raised its target to $49. Benzinga · as of
- Bloomberg reported CONMED was exploring options including a sale after takeover interest from private-equity firms; no bidder or agreement has been announced. Bloomberg, 10 July 2026 · as of
- General Counsel Hollie Foust exercised options on 4,000 shares on 4 November 2026, with 1,124 shares withheld for tax at $53.66. SEC Form 4 filed 6 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Conmed Is Said to Weigh Sale After Takeover Interest · news.bgov.com
- SEC EDGAR
- MarketBeat ·
- Benzinga
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