NVEC · NVE
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $101.74
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $101.74, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 32.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $101.74, which would show the shares leading again after the post-report fall. A fiscal third-quarter product-sales figure above the $10,734,735 of the June quarter would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 21 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5.8
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −8.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 78.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 55.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 23.6
- Price to earnings (×)
- 22.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 12.0
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 19.5
All filed numbers
What NVE reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5.8 | −8.1 | 78.2 | 55.0 |
| first filed | 11.0 | +80.7 | 81.3 | 65.8 |
| first filed | 7.7 | +5.3 | 77.7 | 61.9 |
| first filed | 6.2 | +22.9 | 78.6 | 60.2 |
| first filed | 6.3 | −6.1 | 78.3 | 57.6 |
| first filed | 6.1 | −10.0 | 80.6 | 62.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 3.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 17.9 | 3.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 19.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 23.6 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 23.6 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 3.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | 6.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 58.0 |
| Market value ($M) | 393 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 369 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 12.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 19.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 22.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.1 days of average trading to cover, −9.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $5.3M |
The thesis
NVE Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, because September-quarter product sales of $5,575,282 were about half the $10,734,735 of the June quarter and the June order surge has not repeated. The fiscal 2027 third-quarter report, expected around January 2027, settles whether June was a one-time order or a higher run rate.
The shares closed at $82.60 on 12 November 2026, up from $71.23 on 5 November 2026 but 38.8% below the intraday 52-week high of $135.00 set on 24 July 2026. The 3-month change is –31.0%, so the market already discounts the September drop. The close sits below both the 50-day average ($95.58) and the 200-day average ($89.03), measured on adjusted closes. The published kill line has not been crossed.
Management told analysts on the 21 October 2026 earnings call, per a MarketBeat summary, that it expects medical-device and defense sales to recover in the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Reported results have not yet shown that.
Bullish and bearish views on NVE Corporation
The bull case on NVE Corporation (NVEC), in brief: management points to a recovery. The bear case: June sales did not repeat.
Bull case
- Management points to a recovery. A MarketBeat summary of the 21 October 2026 earnings call says NVE expects medical-device and defense sales to recover in the quarter ending 31 December 2026. A recovery of that kind would lift product sales above the $5,575,282 reported for September.
- Distributor sales grew sharply. The same call summary says distributor sales rose 67% from a year earlier in the September quarter, and that direct medical-device sales were affected by order timing.
- Newer robotics demand is cited. The call summary dated 21 October 2026 describes growing interest and larger orders from newer customers, mainly in robotics, factory automation and humanoid robotics.
- Six-month revenue is still higher. First-half fiscal 2027 revenue rose 36%, per NVE's 21 October 2026 results release. The June quarter sits inside that figure.
- Profit and cash remain solid. Net income was $3.17 million in the September quarter. NVE declared a $1.00 quarterly dividend payable 30 November 2026 to holders of record on 2 November 2026.
Bear case
- June sales did not repeat. Product sales were $5,575,282 in the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against $10,734,735 in the quarter ended 30 June 2026, per the two results releases dated 21 October 2026 and 22 July 2026. Total revenue of about $5.83 million was below the $6.35 million of a year earlier.
- Earnings slipped from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $0.65 against $0.68, and net income fell 4%, per the 21 October 2026 release.
- Sales depend on a few large buyers. NVE's releases list reliance on several large customers as a forward-looking risk. Order timing from a few buyers fits the swing between June and September.
- Insiders have been sellers. Quiver Quantitative reports nine insider sales and no purchases over six months. SEC Form 4 filings show director Daniel A. Baker sold 21,140 shares at an average $101.49 on 8 September 2026, 5,731 shares at an average $108.74 from 25 August to 27 August 2026, and 1,500 shares at $121.50 on 17 August 2026.
- A law-firm investigation was announced in October 2026. Press reports describe a shareholder-rights investigation of NVE. No complaint or company disclosure of litigation has been filed.
Price setup
The quoted close on 12 November 2026 was $82.60, after $83.97 on 11 November 2026, $80.20 on 10 November 2026, $80.16 on 9 November 2026, $75.98 on 6 November 2026 and $71.23 on 5 November 2026. That is a rebound of several sessions from the post-report low, not yet a recovery of the fall.
The shares remain below the 200-day average of $89.03 and the 50-day average of $95.58 (adjusted closes, as of 12 November 2026). The 52-week intraday high is $135.00 from 24 July 2026, the session after the June-quarter results lifted the shares. The 52-week closing low is $57.42, set on 20 November 2025.
The insider sales above were made between roughly $101 and $121.50, well above the current price. The next company event that carries new sales data is the fiscal third-quarter report.
Catalysts ahead
- ~January 2027 (est.): Fiscal 2027 third-quarter results for the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Shows whether product sales recover toward the June level of $10,734,735 or stay near the September level of $5,575,282.
- 30 November 2026: Payment date for the $1.00 quarterly dividend (record date 2 November 2026). Shows the cash return continues after the weaker September quarter.
What would change the view
A daily close above $101.74, which would show the shares leading again after the post-report fall. A fiscal third-quarter product-sales figure above the $10,734,735 of the June quarter would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
NVE makes spintronic (electron-spin-based) sensors and couplers used in medical devices, defense and industrial automation. Its moves follow its own order timing more than any index. The 23 July 2026 jump came on a day when the Nasdaq fell 2.03%, per Benzinga. Two large post-report moves are too small a sample to draw a pattern about links to analog or sensor peers.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Product sales were $5,575,282 and contract research and development revenue was $259,420 in the quarter ended 30 September 2026; total revenue was about $5.83 million versus $6.35 million a year earlier. NVE fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Net income was $3.17 million and diluted earnings per share were $0.65 versus $0.68 a year earlier; six-month revenue rose 36%. NVE fiscal 2027 second-quarter results release · as of
- Product sales for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 were $10,734,735 and total revenue was $11,034,057. NVE fiscal 2027 first-quarter results release · as of
- Distributor sales rose 67% from a year earlier in the September quarter; management expects medical-device and defense sales to recover in the current quarter. MarketBeat earnings call summary · as of
- Director Daniel A. Baker sold 21,140 shares at an average $101.49 on 8 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 9 September 2026 · as of
- Nine insider sales and no purchases over six months. Quiver Quantitative · as of
- The shares closed at $82.60 on 12 November 2026, 38.8% below the intraday 52-week high of $135.00 set on 24 July 2026; the 3-month change was –31.0%. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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