NWPX · NWPX Infrastructure
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $102.66
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $102.66, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 23.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $102.66, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 179
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +18.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 21.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 86.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −3.2
- Price to earnings (×)
- 16.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.4
All filed numbers
What NWPX Infrastructure reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 179 | +18.7 | 21.3 | 13.6 |
| first filed | 160 | +19.7 | 21.5 | 13.3 |
| first filed | 138 | +19.1 | 19.3 | 9.2 |
| first filed | 126 | +5.0 | 21.3 | 10.4 |
| first filed | 151 | +16.0 | 21.3 | 12.6 |
| first filed | 133 | +2.8 | 19.0 | 9.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 24.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 53.5 | 18.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 107 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 19.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 86.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 6.1 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 9.2 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −3.2 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +437.5% on a year | 44.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 30 July 2026; +2.3% on a year | 305 |
| Receivables ($M) | 116 |
| Inventory ($M) | 89.3 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 437 |
| Market value ($M) | 867 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 870 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 12.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 16.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 10.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.7 days of average trading to cover, −2.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $9.6M |
The thesis
NWPX Infrastructure beat on third-quarter revenue and earnings, but the shares closed at $91.68 on 9 November 2026, below the $99.84 close of 27 October 2026 and 38.9% under the 52-week high of $149.94. The operating case is intact. The market is instead pricing the fall in signed water-pipe backlog and a fourth-quarter outlook well below the third quarter's pace, and the fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles which reading is right.
The company reported record net sales of $179.4 million on 28 October 2026, up 18.7% from $151.1 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.86 against $1.38 a year earlier. A news summary put the consensus at $1.65 per share and $150.8 million of sales.
The narrative is dead as a momentum story: the shares fell over the two weeks after a record report, and the three-month price change is −19.3% with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI, a 0-to-100 momentum gauge) at 42.4 (adjusted daily closes, 9 November 2026). The stock now trades on whether 2027 volumes hold as a large government project completes.
Bullish and bearish views on NWPX Infrastructure, Inc.
The bull case on NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX), in brief: record quarter beat both lines. The bear case: signed backlog fell again.
Bull case
- Record quarter beat both lines. Net sales were $179.4 million and gross profit was $38.2 million, a 21.3% margin that matched the year-earlier quarter (company release, 28 October 2026). Net income rose 35.0% to $18.2 million.
- Confirmed backlog reached a record. Water Transmission Systems (WTS) backlog including confirmed orders was $435 million at 30 September 2026, up from $423 million at 30 June 2026 (company release). Management said on the 29 October 2026 call that the figure came after recognising $31.0 million of revenue from the confidential government project in the quarter.
- Precast met its guide. Precast revenue was $47.5 million, up 0.6% year over year, and its order book rose to $67 million from $61 million at 30 June 2026 (company release). Management had guided Precast above both Q2 and the year-earlier quarter on 30 July 2026.
- Management points to a stronger 2027 start. The release says fourth-quarter 2026 performance should exceed both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, and that the company expects to "enter 2027 with significant momentum." It gives no numeric 2027 guidance.
Bear case
- Signed backlog fell again. WTS signed-contract backlog was $264 million at 30 September 2026, versus $305 million at 30 June 2026 and $373 million at 31 March 2026 (company release and Q2 release). The management floor was "low-to-mid $300 million" including confirmed orders.
- The fourth-quarter outlook is a floor well below Q3. Management guided to results above the first quarter of 2026's $138.3 million and the fourth quarter of 2025's $125.6 million (company release, 28 October 2026; figures from earnings call coverage). The third quarter was $179.4 million.
- Segment margin slipped. WTS gross margin was 20.7% against 21.3% a year earlier on revenue of $131.9 million, up 27.0% (company release, 28 October 2026). The growth came from volume on the large project.
- Liquidity tightened. Cash was $6.1 million at 30 September 2026 versus $19.3 million at 30 June 2026, and the revolver carried $18.5 million of borrowings with about $105 million of capacity, down from no borrowings and $124 million (company releases). The Serpentix acquisition closed 2 September 2026.
- Analyst targets are drifting lower. J.P. Morgan kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $120 on 31 October 2026 (company news). Northland's Hold target is $95 (3 September 2026) and DA Davidson's Buy target is $90 per Benzinga, so the 9 November 2026 close of $91.68 sits near the low end of the target range.
- Insiders sold in August. Form 4 filings show five sales and no purchases from 4 August to 17 August 2026, including CEO sales under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted 5 May 2026.
Price setup
The adjusted close was $91.68 on 9 November 2026, against a 52-week high of $149.94. The shares are down 19.3% over three months. RSI(14) is 42.4, neither oversold nor strong. The close sits 1.8% above the $90 round level.
An EarningsWhispers transcript page showed a price of $98.00 without a date, so the post-report move is not pinned to a single session here. The adjusted closes before and after the report are $99.84 on 27 October 2026 and $91.68 on 9 November 2026.
Crowding evidence is light on the upside. No earnings date falls inside the next 30 days, coverage is three analysts, and the last visible insider activity was scheduled-plan selling in August.
Catalysts ahead
- ~November 2026 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. Gives segment detail and the terms behind the $18.5M of revolver borrowings; the filing date is unconfirmed.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Tests whether revenue clears the stated floor above $138.3M and whether signed WTS backlog stabilises from $264M.
What would change the view
A daily close above $102.66, the 200-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
NWPX trades with water-infrastructure spending and municipal and federal project awards, not with artificial-intelligence or technology themes. The company has no data-center revenue line. Its WTS segment is project-lumpy, so quarterly revenue and backlog swing with a few large awards. Precast follows construction activity and weather, which management cited for the seasonal fourth quarter. Coverage is thin, so one target revision, such as J.P. Morgan's cut to $120, moves the average noticeably.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 net sales $179.4M, +18.7% YoY; gross profit $38.2M (21.3% margin); net income $18.2M, +35.0%; diluted EPS $1.86 vs $1.38. NWPX Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- WTS backlog of signed contracts was $264M and $435M including confirmed orders at quarter-end, versus $305M and $423M at 30 June 2026. NWPX Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- WTS net sales $131.9M, +27.0%, gross margin 20.7% vs 21.3%; Precast net sales $47.5M, +0.6%, order book $67M. NWPX Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- Cash $6.1M; revolver borrowings $18.5M with about $105M additional capacity. NWPX Q3 2026 results press release · as of
- Q3 EPS of $1.86 beat a $1.65 consensus estimate; sales of $179.392M beat a $150.8M estimate. Company news headline, 28 October 2026 · as of
- J.P. Morgan maintained Neutral on NWPX and lowered its price target to $120. Company news, J.P. Morgan rating note · as of
- Adjusted close $91.68, 38.9% below the 52-week high of $149.94; 3-month change −19.3%; RSI(14) 42.4. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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