NWL · Newell Brands
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $6.80
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $6.80, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 3.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $6.80, 16% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,873
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 34.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 1.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 53.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −4,470
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.9
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 96.3
All filed numbers
What Newell Brands reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,873 | +3.7 | 34.7 | 1.4 |
| first filed | 1,994 | +3.0 | 40.7 | 14.2 |
| first filed | 1,549 | −1.1 | 33.1 | 2.2 |
| first filed | 1,897 | −2.7 | 33.1 | −14.3 |
| first filed | 1,806 | −7.2 | 34.1 | 6.6 |
| first filed | 1,935 | −4.8 | 35.4 | 8.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −92.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −323 | −81.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 254 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 201 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 53.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 371 |
| Debt ($M) | 4,841 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −4,470 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 980 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,596 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,364 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,462 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,932 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 96.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.8 days of average trading to cover, −4.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.9M |
The thesis
Newell Brands' sales recovery is real but its cash generation is weak, and the shares have already recovered most of the October slide. The fourth-quarter report, due around the end of February 2027, settles whether core sales (sales excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency) keep growing and whether leverage falls as management says it will.
The company's 30 October 2026 release showed third-quarter net sales of $1.87 billion, up 3.7% from a year earlier, and core sales up 3.3%. That is the second straight quarter of growth after the 2.3% core-sales rise reported on 31 July 2026. Normalized earnings per share (EPS) were $0.20 against $0.17 a year earlier.
The adjusted close was $5.93 on 10 November 2026, up from $5.21 on 28 October 2026 and 6.5% below the 52-week high of $6.34. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 55.8 and the three-month price change is −2.8%. The story is well known: the story is well known, and the second growth quarter has already moved the shares back toward the July post-earnings range.
Bullish and bearish views on Newell Brands Inc.
The bull case on Newell Brands Inc. (NWL), in brief: core growth sped up. The bear case: cash-flow guide was cut sharply.
Bull case
- Core growth sped up. Core sales rose 3.3% in Q3 2026 after 2.3% in Q2, per the company's 30 October 2026 release. Q4 core sales are guided up 1% to 3%.
- Sales guidance moved higher. Full-year net sales growth is now guided at 2% to 3%, up from 1% to 2%, and core sales at 1% to 2%, up from flat to 1%, per the 30 October 2026 release.
- Underlying profit held. Normalized EPS guidance was narrowed to $0.74–$0.76 from $0.73–$0.77, and the normalized operating margin guide of 10.0% to 10.4% was unchanged, per the 30 October 2026 release.
- Leverage is guided lower. Management expects net leverage below 4.5 times at year-end 2026 and continues to target deleveraging in 2027, according to coverage of the 30 October 2026 earnings call. Total debt was $4.84 billion against $249 million of cash at quarter-end.
- Operating team and board additions. Guillermo Beade became chief operating officer on 26 October 2026, and Newell elected William Newlands to its board on 9 November 2026.
Bear case
- Cash-flow guide was cut sharply. Full-year operating cash flow is now about $150 million, per the 30 October 2026 release, which attributes the cut to a pension-plan termination worth about $85 million of outflows and lower receivables-factoring proceeds. Press coverage put the earlier target near $400 million. Year-to-date operating cash flow was $93 million against $103 million a year earlier.
- Earnings guidance sits at the estimate. The full-year EPS range of $0.74–$0.76 compares with a $0.76 analyst estimate, and Q4 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 compares with a $0.19 estimate, per Benzinga on 30 October 2026. Q4 normalized operating margin is guided to 8.4%–9.0%.
- Reported profit is still negative. Third-quarter diluted EPS under US accounting rules was a loss of $0.19, per the 30 October 2026 release.
- Analysts are not raising targets. On 2 November 2026 Citigroup (Neutral) lowered its target to $5.50, Deutsche Bank lowered its to $5, and UBS (Neutral) raised its to $5.75 from $5.50. The 10 November 2026 close of $5.93 is above all three.
- Debt remains heavy. Total debt of $4.84 billion is large against the company's market value, and the 2031 notes priced on 5 August 2026 carry a 6.250% coupon.
Price setup
The shares closed at $5.93 on 10 November 2026 in adjusted daily bars. That is 13.8% above the $5.21 close of 28 October 2026 and 6.5% below the $6.34 52-week high. The RSI of 55.8 is mid-range, well above the 36.0 reading of 28 October 2026.
The $5.21 close sits just above $5.14, the price the shares held before the 31 July 2026 report.
Crowding evidence is limited. Short interest was 10.9% of float at the 31 August 2026 settlement, down from 14.5% on 15 July 2026, per MarketBeat; no newer settlement figure was available. No earnings date falls inside the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 results. Tests Q4 core sales against the 1%–3% guide, EPS against $0.17–$0.19, and year-end leverage against the below-4.5-times target.
Elapsed catalysts
- 5 November 2026: Quarterly cash dividend declared. Confirms the reduced payout is continuing while net leverage is still guided to fall below 4.5 times by year-end. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $6.80, 16% above the last close (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Newell sells writing instruments, baby gear, kitchen and home products, so its shares track US consumer-staples and discretionary retailers, tariff and input-cost news, and credit spreads for leveraged issuers. The company's 30 October 2026 release lists securing receipt of tariff refunds as a risk, and does not quantify a refund contribution to Q3.
The 31 July 2026 earnings jump was partly a short-covering move, according to Benzinga; short interest has since been falling in MarketBeat's settlement series.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 net sales $1.87B, up 3.7%; core sales up 3.3%; normalized EPS $0.20 vs $0.17 a year earlier; GAAP diluted EPS a loss of $0.19. Newell Brands Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- FY2026 guidance: net sales growth 2%–3%, core sales 1%–2%, normalized EPS $0.74–$0.76, normalized operating margin 10.0%–10.4%, operating cash flow about $150M. Newell Brands Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance: net sales up 1%–3%, core sales up 1%–3%, normalized operating margin 8.4%–9.0%, normalized EPS $0.17–$0.19 vs $0.19 estimate. Newell Brands Q3 2026 results release; Benzinga · as of
- Total debt $4.84B and cash $249M at quarter-end; year-to-date operating cash flow $93M vs $103M a year earlier. Newell Brands Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Citigroup (Neutral) cut its target to $5.50; Deutsche Bank cut its to $5; UBS (Neutral) raised its to $5.75 from $5.50. Benzinga analyst-action headlines · as of
- Adjusted close $5.93, 6.5% below the 52-week high of $6.34; RSI(14) 55.8; three-month price change −2.8%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
- Q2 2026 core sales rose 2.3%, the first quarterly increase in more than four years. Newell Brands Q2 2026 results release · as of
Sources